FIRE JOE MORGAN: The Curious Case of Adam Dunn


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Wednesday, July 13, 2005


The Curious Case of Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn is one of those players that people like Joe Morgan undervalue.

Steve Phillips is like Joe Morgan.

Tommy, (cincy, ohio): YO Steve!! Are the Reds really shopping Adam Dunn or is the media just speculating? Plus, would they really trade him to a team in their own division?

Steve Phillips: Dan O'Brien tends to be a very patient GM. But I think they should trade him. He is slated to make around $9M in arbitration and they have him batting sixth. Guys making that much need to bat 3 or 4. He is an enigma of a hitter. Very high OBP, he hits some HRs, but his RBI numbers and his AVG just doesn't reflect an elite offensive player.

>> First of all, the only reason Dunn is batting sixth is because of piss-poor management. There's no way of saying it nicely. Dunn has the highest OBP on his team. He's 18th in the NL in OBP. And yet Jerry Narron has Rich Aurilia and his anemic .298 OBP in the two-hole. Ugh.

Adam Dunn is a phenomenal hitter. Last year, at the age of 24, he ranked 9th in the NL in OPS+, ahead of Bobby Abreu. His Baseball Reference Most Similar Batter through age 24 is Reggie Jackson.

But you're right, his RBI numbers blow. Even though he has more RBI than Jim Edmonds in that loaded St. Louis lineup. Maybe it's because, as you just mentioned, he's batting sixth.

I also love the casual way Phillips writes "he hits some home runs." Yeah, he hits some home runs. Since the 2004 All-Star Game, Adam Dunn has hit a home run every 12.73 at-bats. That's better than Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, or Derrek Lee. If you want to talk raw numbers, he's hit 44 total homers in that span of time, trailing only Pujols and Lee.

Did I mention he's 25 years old?

Steve Phillips: If somebody could get him to swing earlier and be more aggressive, it could make a difference But he is their biggest chip and for $9M they could find some dramatic improvements or their pitching.

>> Yeah, Steve, let's mess with his swing, that'll fix this guy.

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posted by Junior  # 12:09 PM
so this guy will trade for mo vaughn after he sat out a year with a serious injury, but would trade a 25-year old on-base machine with terrific power and a lot of potential?

no wonder he's a former GM
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