Look, there are no certainties when it comes to long-term contract values. It's possible that Kevin Millwood will be worth $12 million a year when he's 36. I just don't think it's likely.
Phil Rogers, however, thinks the Millwood signing was one of the best of the offseason.
RHP Kevin Millwood | Age: 31
Contract: 5 years, $60 million
2005: 9-11, AL-best 2.86 ERA
You know what his defense-adjusted ERA was? 3.61. It was good. Jarrod Washburn's DERA was 3.48. (His contract seems bad, too. But it's a for a lot less total money than Millwood's.)
Sure, Scott Boras did his usual tap dance to the bank, getting the maximum value for another one of his clients. But give first-year Texas general manager Jon Daniels credit for landing his franchise the rare pitcher who walks and talks like an ace.
Some might say that there are too many stupid lists on FJM. Not me.
WALKS LIKE AN ACE
Kirk Saarloos (great walker, cannot pitch well, though)
TALKS LIKE AN ACE
Ozzie Guillen (Surprise! Not even a pitcher or an active player. Still, ace talker.)
WALKS AND TALKS LIKE AN ACE
So you see, the Rangers were very fortunate indeed to land Millwood.
That's what Millwood was when he left Atlanta after 2002, and he has only grown mentally tougher in the three seasons he spent in Philadelphia and Cleveland. He used his sinker-slider combination well enough at Jacobs Field to lead the American League in ERA last season, and his ground-ball style should help him at Ameriquest Field in Arlington. The Rangers need someone to show their collection of young power pitchers that you can succeed at this hitter's park, and Millwood will provide a good example.
That's great, but really, how much is it worth for him to "show that you can succeed"? $1 million a year? 2? Will Kameron Loe and Juan Dominguez suddenly lower the ERAs by half a run once they see Millwood post a 4.30 ERA at home next year?
With Michael Young, Mark Teixeira, Hank Blalock and Rod Barajas, the Rangers have a core of players to compete with Oakland and the Angels in the AL West. They needed to change the face of a defeated pitching staff, and Daniels did that. Millwood might not have five good seasons in him -- no pitcher in his 30s is a good bet for that -- but this deal will be worth it if Millwood helps a floundering organization re-establish its credibility.
He's one year removed from a 4.85 ERA (90 ERA+) and he's essentially been league average or worse for five of his eight full seasons in the major leagues.
At least Phil is consistently wrong, though. He also hates the low-risk, one year Dodger deal for Nomar Garciaparra and loves the $16 million given to 41-year-old crazy person Kenny Rogers.
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