FIRE JOE MORGAN: Two Emails About the Two Previous Posts


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FJM has gone dark for the foreseeable future. Sorry folks. We may post once in a while, but it's pretty much over. You can still e-mail dak, Ken Tremendous, Junior, Matthew Murbles, or Coach.

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Wednesday, September 13, 2006


Two Emails About the Two Previous Posts

Are people of sick of entire posts devoted to readers' emails yet? Too bad. I just got two that are too good to relegate to the comments section ghetto.

The first is about Mike Schmidt's Howard-Bonds comparison. And as reader Robert acknowledges, it reflects a frightening willingness to pour minutes upon minutes of research into refuting Schmidt's totally offhand comment.

I just spent the last 40 minutes or so manipulating data in Excel to give you a touch more unnecessary fodder. I analyzed every two week period of Barry Bonds' 2002 and 2003 seasons (I couldn't find game by game data for 2001, but it won't matter) and Ryan Howard's 2006 season. If we can all agree that a serviceable way to measure a players' "Good" level at this moment in time, or "Dangerous" level at this moment in time is that players' OPS in any two week period, then I have some fun results:

The best two week period Howard has had this season was from 8/3 to 8/17, when he OPS'd a fantastic *1.713(!)*. The next few best periods were (the date given is the start date of the two week period):

Aug. 31 1.674
Aug. 7 1.665
Aug. 30 1.655
Aug. 4 1.631
Aug. 25 1.619
Aug. 24 1.552
Aug. 22 1.500

Mr Bonds is better. His best from 2002:

Aug. 23 2.220
Aug. 27 2.167
Aug. 24 2.164
Aug. 25 2.117
Aug. 26 2.083
Aug. 22 2.000
Aug. 20 1.803

and 2003:

Jun. 7 1.958
Aug. 12 1.858
Jun. 6 1.856
Aug. 10 1.852
Jul. 17 1.793
Jul. 11 1.782
Jul. 7 1.774
Jul. 12 1.767

In fact, between those 2 years, there have been at least 25 individual two week periods where Bonds has been better than Howard at Howard's prime. This doesn't even include 2001 data (or any other year). Got a link to game-by-game data for Bonds in 2001? If you get it to me I will go farther with this colossal waste of time.

Sorry those charts are so ugly. I'm not currently interested in fixing that. Instead let's move on to a more personal, humorous email from Brad:

Love the FJM Website and read it everyday. Just thought I would let you know that I work at Wrigley Field almost every home game as a security guard and I can say I rarely if ever see Rogers at the ballpark. I find it funny that he insinuates in that paragraph you shared that he spends every waking moment at one of the two ball yards in Chicago.

Hurray for the Internet!

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posted by Junior  # 6:48 PM
Let the reader dialogue continue. Reader Anthony has the following:

First of all, you should let the reader who did the Bonds/Howard analysis know about They have a day-by-day database for all players going back to 1974. I just checked Bonds's two-week OPS figures for his whole career in about ten minutes.

Actually, it's not necessarily two weeks. I just figured out 14-game stretches since I was too lazy to bother accounting for off days and whatnot. I don't think worlds hang on this question, so whatever.

Anyway, Bonds's best stretch was started on 8/11/04. His OPS was 2364. He was 17-for-28 with 8 HR, 25 BB (11 intentional) and 3 K. His batting line? .607/.792/1.571. Oh, and he stole a base, too.

And just for kicks, Bonds's worst stretch was started on 8/26/87. He hit .122/.200/.122 in 41 AB. So yeah.

At this point I'm just staying out of this whole thing, but here we go. Robert has written back:

*That best OPS (2.364) of his career was not 8/11/04, it was 4/11/04 (that's right, I have COMPLETELY geeked out). Maybe he botched it because he only spent 10 minutes. I spent at least 12 minutes (once I was able to use the BaseballMusings data. Great site.) Also, Bonds has had 60 two week periods in his career which have been better than Ryan Howard's best. So now, I need to shove this in Mike Schmidt's face sometime so he can say, "Dude, what are you doin'?" or something.
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