Comments on FIRE JOE MORGAN: Best Ever?

Reader Christian adds more reasons Plaschke should...

2006-08-19T01:59:00.000-04:00

Reader Christian adds more reasons Plaschke should go soak his head:

Ethier...is on pace either to approach, match, or plow through his 90th-percentile PECOTA projections (through 92 games thus far):

PECOTA--.290 EqA/.848 OPS/33.8 VORP/.148 MLVr/5.0 WARP-1
Actual--.302 EqA/.928 OPS/25.6 VORP/.334 MLVr/3.4 WARP-1

I only highlighted MLVr because that's the biggest disparity (among players with a min. 300 ABs, he ranks 15th in the majors), and there's nothing at which he has equally underperformed that balances it out somewhat. At his current rate, he would end up with a VORP of roughly 39-40. Something else, too, is that his BABIP is .396.

A BABIP of .396 is nuts. The guy is getting a little bit lucky, I'd say. He seems like a good player, but he will probably come back down to earth a bit. That's one point. The other point is that if PECOTA had him projected for a .290 EqA, an .848 OPS, and a 5.0 WARP, how the hell did no one else in the Dodgers' organization know about him?

Finally, our friend the Beautiful Cynic writes:

The entire crux of his argument relies on his statement early on that "Around the hotel room table, someone mentioned an unknown double-A outfielder named Andre Ethier." How "unknown" could Andre Ethier have been if I'd read about him every two weeks in Baseball America?

Before people get all hot and bothered about Andre...

2006-08-18T18:31:00.000-04:00

Before people get all hot and bothered about Andre Ethier, let's consider sample size. So far this year, this is what he's done:

92 games, 290 AB, .338/.383/.545, 11 HR

Now take a look at Player X:

97 games, 368 AB, .329/.384/.527, 12 HR

Give up? Player X is 31-year-old utility man Mark DeRosa, he of the career .752 OPS. (And it's not the Texas ballpark -- he's OPSing over 100 points higher on the road.) I'm not saying Ethier is Mark DeRosa, but I don't think he's a .340 BA, .900 OPS guy either (E-thier??? get it???). His totals over 3 minor league seasons look like this: .312/.382/.455.

Longer comment? Sure, don't mind if I do. Take a look at Rookie Y:

51 games, 140 AB, .321/.386/.521, 7 HR

Sure, it's only half as many at bats, but Matt Murton sure looked like a world-beater last year. This year he's come back to earth with a .784 OPS and 8 HR in 317 AB.

My point is that Bill Plaschke probably jerks off to old-people porn.

Before people get all hot and bothered about Greg ...

2006-08-18T18:22:00.000-04:00

Before people get all hot and bothered about Greg Maddux, let's consider sample size. So far with the Dodgers, this is what Maddux has done in three starts:

20 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 4 BB

Pretty damn good. But wait. Let's take a look at Maddux' first four starts this season with the Cubs:

27.1 IP, 3 ER, 18 K, 5 BB

Remember, dude was 5-0 with a 1.35 ERA in April. This year. Then the wheels totally fell off, with ERAs of 5.94, 6.25, and 5.21 in the next three months.

Some things:1. Very special thanks to reader Bryan...

2006-08-18T11:16:00.000-04:00

Some things:

1. Very special thanks to reader Bryan for the tip.
2. The title of this post, if you're curious, refers to Plaschke's article, and not my feelings about my own writing.
3. My feelings abot my own writing are nearly always: "...eh."