Comments on FIRE JOE MORGAN: First JoeChat of Fall

Weird, because I think it reminds me of that other...

2006-09-30T03:18:00.000-04:00

Weird, because I think it reminds me of that other line from "The Contender."

You're welcome, readers!

This whole discussion reminds me of that Brancusi ...

2006-09-30T00:07:00.000-04:00

This whole discussion reminds me of that Brancusi sculpture.

Junior, that last comment reminds me of that line ...

2006-09-29T23:50:00.000-04:00

Junior, that last comment reminds me of that line from the Blur song "Look Inside America."

Also, KT, you wrote:If Jeter had gone down, replac...

2006-09-29T22:15:00.000-04:00

Also, KT, you wrote:

If Jeter had gone down, replacing his offense from that position would be very hard.

The Yankees are the only team for whom that wouldn't be hard (because Cap'n Jetes already forced A-Rod to play out of position in the first place). I know what you mean, but still.

If you take one thing from this discussion, it's t...

2006-09-29T22:04:00.000-04:00

If you take one thing from this discussion, it's this:

Joan Allen sez Jeter for MVP!

Zazzle?

2006-09-29T17:07:00.000-04:00

Zazzle?

dak--I like the way you wrote, "I am reminded of t...

2006-09-29T15:14:00.000-04:00

dak--

I like the way you wrote, "I am reminded of that line from The Contender..." Like everyone is so familiar with The Contender that we all remember that line.

P.S. I'm mostly getting hammered for talking up Jeter for MVP. I'll post some responses later.

Re: the sabermetric argument for MVP Jeter.I'm rem...

2006-09-29T00:55:00.000-04:00

Re: the sabermetric argument for MVP Jeter.

I'm reminded of that line from "The Contender" (the movie, not the ESPN series): "Principles only mean something when you stick to them when it's inconvenient."

I'm pretty sure she was talking about WARP3 at the time.

VORP Update:About a million people wrote in to tel...

2006-09-28T18:09:00.000-04:00

VORP Update:

About a million people wrote in to tell me that Jeter is ahead of Ortiz in VORP now, by about one or so. When I started writing the JoeChat Ortiz was very slightly ahead according to BP. So, I apologize, you adorable stat goons.

Others wrote in to complain that Jeter is a bad choice because his line-up is way better than Morneau's or Ortiz's or something. I tend to agree, to a point, but the fact of the matter is, if you believe in things like VORP and Win Shares and stuff, you have to admit that the guy has had a great offensive year, playing a position from which a great offensive year is extremely valuable to his team. When Sheffield went down, the Yankees pretty easily found another offensive force in RF. All they needed was two warm bodies and about $50m over two years, once luxury taxes kick in. If Jeter had gone down, replacing his offense from that position would be very hard. And yes, I know the team went like 26-11 a few years ago when Ken Huckaby kneed his shoulder off, (totally accidentally -- a point that was lost to Admiral Leadership Nice-Guy Jones when Huck tried to apologize and Jeter iced him), but that to my mind shouldn't change the fact that Calm-Eyed Deke is at .340/.414/.483 with an 11.1 WARP3 and a .320 EqA+, playing above average defense from the SS position.

Live by the sword, die by the sword, fellow sabermetricians. Jeter's a good choice for MVP. You can make compelling cases for Morneau, Mauer, Hafner, and Ortiz -- and many will in the coming month, and they will not be "wrong." Any of those guys makes a good choice, I think, depending on which criteria one uses. But in terms of "value," on an individual basis, it's hard to make a compelling argument against Jeter, other than that his power numbers aren't great.

Morneau, for example, is .323/.378/.566, and blows Jeter out of thte water in traditional power #s. So does Ortiz, and obviously Hafner. But Morneau's WARP3 is only 8.4, so Jeter has been worth almost 3 whole wins more to the Yankees than Morneau has to the Twinkies. Jeter's SB-CS are 32-5, Morneau's are 3-3. Jeter has walked more, and has more hits, and plays a tougher position, etc.

In other words: it's tough to believe in what I believe in, and still say that Morneau is more valuable than Jeter. Such an argument would be partly based on who else is in these two line-ups -- a bunch of HOFers for Jeter, Mauer and no one for Morneau -- but I'm not sure that should be a big consideration, frankly. We have advanced statistical ways of measuring a player's value independent of his teammates' values, and I think we should use them.

End transmission.