It's time to play no-one's favorite game, "Irrelevant/Counter-Irrelevant
," with Jayson Stark and Jim Caple. The goal is to make as many irrelevant points as you can in the space alloted. First, Irrelevant: The Phillies Will Win!These Phillies won't be playing in this World Series because they're the best team in the National League.
Well, they did win the second-most games, and had the second-best run differential, trailing only the Cubbies. They scored the second-most runs, had the most HR, and had the fourth-best ERA, only 0.03 behind second-place Milwaukee. So, maybe they aren't the best
team, but they're certainly very close.They're here because they're the toughest team in the National League.
Fuck all that statistical noise. It's about toughness. The Phillies are tough. The Phillies are like a hockey team. The Phillies work in an Alaskan cannery 19 hours a day. The Phillies could knock out Kimbo Slice in thirteen
seconds.And that toughness is the biggest reason I think they'll win.
I'm going with "they hit the most HR in the league and have a really good pitching staff." But whatever."They're the most mentally tough team" in the field, an NL general manager told me three weeks ago.
That NL GM? Robert Duvall. Legendarily tough. Tough old sonofabitch. He knows tough. When he said this he was driving in a pick-up truck with 300,000 miles on it, that he built himself, and he was on his way to a black bear-wrestling contest, in which black bears take turns seeing if they
can defeat him
. And he's mentally tough, too. He once survived fifty days of waterboarding without giving up any information. The waterboarder? Marlon Brando, on the set of The Godfather
. So I think he knows what "tough" is.
By the way, I'm currently watching Game One of the Series on like an hour TiVo delay, and Tim McCarver, after Shane Victorino almost got picked off second, said something like, "You've probably heard that you should never make the first or third out at third base, but in this case, you should never make the first out at second base."
What he could have said: "You shouldn't get picked off in a [fucking] World Series game."And he was just the lead singer in a chorus of GMs, scouts, coaching staffs and players who have run into this team along the way.
They're called the "Stolen Bass-es" and they're performing this Saturday at the St. Bartholomew Episcopal Church in Germantown, PA.
Tim McCarver just referred to Jason Werth's double as a "check swing plop job," which: ewww, and then he talked about Ben Zobrist racing to the line to grab said plop job by saying, "Gives you an idea about the closure [sic] speed of the Rays' outfielders." Why is Tim McCarver allowed to broadcast?
These people are always talking about "the way they play," and "how hard they play" and how much fun it is to watch these Phillies play.
What [people who talk about the Phillies] Talk About When They Talk About [the Phillies]:
1. The way they play
2. How hard they play
3. How much fun it is to watch them play
These people sound very interesting and knowledgeable.These Phillies don't seem imprisoned by their team's tortured past. In an odd way, they almost seem inspired by it. They constantly talk, right out loud, about how driven they are to write their own history, make their own mark, put their own stamp on their franchise and their ballpark.
Look, as a Red Sox fan, I understand the importance of a traditionally-losing franchise being undaunted by the past. But let's also acknowledge that we are deep into this "Why the Phillies Will Win" argument, and we have nary a mention of Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat the Bat, Brad Lidge, or, you know, anything related to what actually happens on the field of play.This is a group that sets the bar as high as it can be set, and a group of players who seem remarkably comfortable on this stage.
What? Who? When? How? Which? For? Make? Jump?
What is the evidence for this platitude?They've won 12 games this year in which they trailed after seven innings. They've won 29 games decided from the seventh inning on. They've won a half-dozen games they trailed by two runs or more in the eighth inning or later, including a defining NLCS game in Los Angeles last week.
The Phillies will win because they are often behind late in games. I get it. I think the Phils should be fine late in the game -- it's not like the Rays' bullpen had the best OPS-against in the entire league or anything
.They may not have the best starting rotation in this World Series, but they do have the best starting pitcher -- Cole Hamels.
Hey look! Something about an actual player!
I expect him to win Game 1, set the tone and buy the offense a night to apply the Rust-Oleum after a week off. History does tell us that 10 of the last 11 Game 1 winners have gone on to win the Series.
Actual analysis! This is so much fun! (Though that is a pretty small sample size, at least it's something.)So Game 1 starters are often Series-changers. And Hamels fits that mold. The Phillies also have the best bullpen, and the best closer (Brad Lidge), in this World Series.
Best closer, maybe. But best bullpen? The Rays' bullpen had a .220 BAA. The Phillies, in the NL, had a .251. Their OPS-against was a little worse, too.Much like the Rockies last year, this team heads into this World Series playing as well as it has ever played.
So very soon, the Phillies will be able to hoist the Championship Trophy, just like the World Champion 2007 World Series Champion Colorado Champion Rockies, the 2007 World Series Champions of Championships! Champs!Maybe 20-5 isn't 21-1, but it's in the same stratosphere. The difference, though,
...is that the Rockies didn't win the World Series, like you are predicting the Phillies will?is these Phillies aren't just a good team that got hot. They're a team that was built to win, a team with all the ingredients to win, and THEN they got hot.
...okay...As the Rockies found out last October, it isn't always the hottest team that wins the World Series.
The Rockies were hot! The Phillies are also hot! The Rockies didn't win! The Phillies will win, because they are better than the Rockies! I should go back and rewrite this without invoking the Rockies, which are irrelevant to my argument! Too late! Deadline is here! Oh well!But when the hottest team is also the toughest team, that's a whole different story.
You're telling me. I just read that story. And it's a doozy.
How about this, instead of what you wrote:
The Phillies have a very good pitching staff, a very good bullpen, and hit the most HR in the league. The Rays are a bunch of 24 year-old kids who had never, before this season, played a meaningful game after like April fucking 13th
Now it's time for Counter-Irrelevant: The Tampa Bay Rays Will Win!As always, my esteemed colleague arrived at his World Series prediction after consulting with scouts, general managers and other people throughout baseball.
Didn't seem to help him.
He observed the Phillies up close and personal from opening day to the final game of the NLCS.
He observed their toughness
. Missed all the HR and good pitching performances.He studied the statistics, sorting through OPS, VORP and WHIP in search of tell-tale trends.
No he very obviously did not. He did no such thing. Take that back.He carefully analyzed player matchups, spoke with the participants and called upon more than 30 years of experience covering the game.
Then he talked about toughness for twenty paragraphs.
Likewise, I made a careful study before making my prediction. Namely, I noticed that Tampa Bay rays play in the American League. Which is why I'm picking them to sweep.
Not the strongest argument, but I'll accept it.The AL...dominated interleague play yet again this season, winning 149 of the 252 games played.
I'm not sure what Braves-Royals games have to do with the World Series, really. I'm still with you, ish, though.
To put that in perspective, that winning percentage would translate into a 96 victory season. The last time a league struggled as much as the NL has, Geena Davis was the catcher and Tom Hanks was the manager.
Didn't the AAGPBL become a success, after Geena Davis did that split when she caught the foul pop-up and got on the cover of Life magazine? Not that I've seen that movie 25 times, or anything.
If you're scoring at home, the Rays were 12-6 in interleague play while the Phillies went 4-11, the worst record in baseball.
The Phillies had to play Toronto, Boston, Oakland, LAA, and Texas. Tampa got Florida, St. Louis, the Cubbies, Houston, Florida again, and Pitt. Eh...maybe it's a wash. The Phils had a rough patch against some pretty good teams. Big deal.
Look, it's nice the Phillies won the National League pennant and that Warren Giles trophy will look good in their office. But now they're playing with the big boys.
Matt Garza, B.J. Upton, James Shields, Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena, Grant Balfour...these are all names of people who play for Tampa Bay. You should talk about them.
The Rays are a well-balanced team with power, speed, great defense and deep pitching.
They are so loaded with young talent that they were able to put a pitcher with just five major league games of experience on the mound and see him silence the defending world champions in two games of the ALCS.
...warmer...They have an experienced manager
Joe Maddon: 251-286 (537 total games). Never managed in the post-season before this year.
Charlie Manuel: 573-485 (1058 total games). Managed in the post-season twice before this year.
It took me 21 seconds to look that up.who is willing to use his bullpen in unconventional ways if they make sense, rather than sticking to ways that boost his closer's arbitration figures.
Probably because his "closer," Troy Percival, is injured and out for the season.
And, more importantly, did I mention they play in the American League?
Yes. Very well done.
P.S. Tampa: 2nd-best team ERA, 2nd most Ks. Only 9th-most runs scored. My money's on the Phillies.
P.P.S. Originally, after the line about Maddon using his bullpen non-traditionally, I went on a long and snarky diatribe about how Brad Lidge pitched in like 70 games this year and never once went more than one inning. I was very pleased with myself. Then Timothy wrote in and politely pointed out that Brad Lidge plays for the Phillies, and Joe Maddon manages the Rays. So I swiftly deleted that shit and replaced it with the Percival line.
I am, as always, a dummy.
Labels: fuck the heck, jayson stark, jim caple, phillies, tampa bay rays, world series
written about the Theo Epstein departure. Here's one
-- not by any means the worst one, but one -- from ESPN.com's Page 2 scribe Jim Caple:The saddest part of St. Theo leaving the Red Sox? Had he only made his decision just a few hours earlier, he would have been available for a Supreme Court nomination.
Okay, so, his sarcastic point is that the Theo hagiography got a little out of control.Or, had Theo made the decision just a week earlier, he could have been named Alan Greenspan's replacement at the Federal Reserve.
Right. We get it.Or better, had he made the decision during spring training, the College of Cardinals could have elected him Pope.
How long is this going to go on?Or, based on the breathless tributes, he could have taken any other similarly high post befitting someone who has been a baseball general manager for almost three whole years.
The last snarky example you gave is generic? Really?It's hard to know for sure, because of the way the mainstream media, talk radio and blogosphere have buried this story, but Epstein apparently left the Red Sox because he didn't always see eye-to-eye with team president Larry Lucchino. This is a startling development, of course, because it makes him the first person in history who did not get along with his boss.
And who can blame him? After all, Lucchino only hired Epstein a decade ago, then made him the game's youngest general manager, then gave him the second-largest budget in baseball to work with, and then offered him a $4.5 million contract to stay. The gall! Imagine working for such an ogre. That is so much worse than what Brian Cashman or Terry Ryan ever have to deal with.
Well, okay, you could make the argument that Brian Cashman, despite all the insanity, doesn't have to suffer the slings and arrows of the most oppressive sports media in the world. (Yes, Boston is worse than New York -- I've lived in both places.) Nor does Cashman have to pretend to talk on his cell phone when he goes out to Starbucks to keep people from running up to him and launching into trade ideas and autograph requests -- as Epstein does. Nor did Cashman have to deal with an 80+ year-old championship drought, and the pre-scientific-era perception that his franchise was "cursed" by the ghost of a fat man who died many years ago -- a theory that was actually espoused by many members of the local media, one of whom fucking invented the theory
in order to sell books.
But: point taken. Epstein, on paper, had it pretty good. However. Just because someone's mentor brought him along and offered him a lot of money doesn't mean they can't have a bad relationship. People are all over Theo for "walking away from $4.5 million," but what if the guy just wanted to do something else? What if the relationship was fractured beyond repair? What if he wanted some privacy? The guy had his reasons. I'm sure they were good. And the fact that he was offered a lot of money is irrelevant if he didn't want the job anymore. Shouldn't we be praising a guy who cares about more than money?Yes, his departure is sad but at least we're finally learning the true story behind the Red Sox's success. For a long time, I was under the impression it was David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez who hit all those home runs, and Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez who pitched all the games, and Jason Varitek who caught all those pitches. But now I understand that it was all Theo. And he's leaving! No wonder Red Sox Nation is grieving!
If you're going to make this sarcastic point, do yourself a favor and only cite players who predated Theo's reign. Picking Ortiz off the scrapheap three years ago was one of the greatest GM moves in history. Did Epstein know Ortiz would be this good? No way. But he got him for $1 million because he saw value in his stroke and batting eye. Then, even better, Epstein locked him up for roughly $6 million/year for three years. Do you understand how amazing that is, Caple? He makes less than 25% of what ARod makes, and their offensive numbers are nearly identical.
Schilling would not be wearing a 2004 Sox ring (and neither would anyone else on the team) had Epstein not flown out to Arizona two years ago, had Thanksgiving dinner with the fam, and used his unique blend of statistical analysis and interpersonal skill to convince Schilling that Fenway was a place he could be effective (he won 21 games) and that the city and team needed him to put them over the top. And do you remember whom Epstein traded for Schilling? No, you don't, because it was all junk. (Casey Fossum, anyone?) One of the great trades of the past few years.
Varitek, maybe the most important single guy on the team, might be gone if Epstein didn't make him the team's #1 2004 off-season priority. Manny and Pedro are Duquette guys, but so many pieces of the championship team are Epstein's (Schilling, Foulke, Millar, Mueller, Timlin, Ortiz, etc), trying to minimize his importance is just dumb.Yes, Theo is an intelligent guy who did an excellent job as the general manager and he can probably do many other things very well in life. But he still was a baseball general manager for crying out loud, not the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staffs, the director of Habitat for Humanity or the guy who developed Google.
There are few things I hate more than a sports columnist telling people who discuss sports to "calm down." We are all aware that sports is not as important as politics or international relations or whatever. It is so disingenuous suddenly to chastise people who talk sports for being too intense or for over-magnifying the importance of sports in the world. Drives me nuts.
Also, it's "Joint Chiefs of Staff," not "Joint Chief of Staffs."I mean, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams just accomplished the exact same thing as Theo and with a much smaller payroll. And I don't see anyone anointing Williams as an irreplaceable genius.
That's only because people are too focused on anointing Ozzie Guillen as an irreplaceable genius. Also, Williams does things like trading Carlos Lee and picking up Scott Podsednik. And yes, I still think those are terrible moves.Personally, I agree with a friend who thinks Epstein was simply smart enough to get out while he was still revered. With a questionable pitching staff, yet another Manny trade demand ("And this time I really mean it!") and a probable team makeover that does not involve Carson Kressley, the likeliest short-term direction for the Red Sox is down. Perhaps Theo shrewdly decided to leave now as a saint rather than wait until talk radio started complaining that he was a moron.
First of all, nice "Queer Eye" joke. Very good work on that. Fresh. Second of all, this rationale is so dumb it's almost blinding. Epstein has drafted a slew of guys who are right on the brink of coming up and making huge contributions to the team. Craig Hansen, Jon Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Annibel Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, Edgar Martinez...why in the world would Epstein walk away from the team just when his guys are ready to break through? Because he's worried that the team might be worse next year? This is the brightest future this franchise has had in years.
We may never know exactly what cocktail of unhappiness and contention led to his walking away. But I think it's likely that this was about his relationship with Lucchino, his desire for privacy, and his desire to pursue other things. I do not think it was about money or concern that the team is going to be bad. Or about talk radio. Or "Queer Eye."
Labels: jim caple, red sox