Look, there are no certainties when it comes to long-term contract values. It's possible that Kevin Millwood will be worth $12 million a year when he's 36. I just don't think it's likely.
Phil Rogers, however, thinks the Millwood signing was one of the best of the offseason.
RHP Kevin Millwood | Age: 31
Contract: 5 years, $60 million
2005: 9-11, AL-best 2.86 ERA
You know what his defense-adjusted ERA was? 3.61. It was good. Jarrod Washburn's DERA was 3.48. (His contract seems bad, too. But it's a for a lot less total money than Millwood's.)
Sure, Scott Boras did his usual tap dance to the bank, getting the maximum value for another one of his clients. But give first-year Texas general manager Jon Daniels credit for landing his franchise the rare pitcher who walks and talks like an ace.
Some might say that there are too many stupid lists on FJM. Not me.
WALKS LIKE AN ACE
Roy Halladay
Randy Johnson
Mark Buehrle
Kirk Saarloos (great walker, cannot pitch well, though)
TALKS LIKE AN ACE
Curt Schilling
Pedro Martinez
Ozzie Guillen (Surprise! Not even a pitcher or an active player. Still, ace talker.)
WALKS AND TALKS LIKE AN ACE
Roger Clemens
Kevin Millwood
So you see, the Rangers were very fortunate indeed to land Millwood.
That's what Millwood was when he left Atlanta after 2002, and he has only grown mentally tougher in the three seasons he spent in Philadelphia and Cleveland. He used his sinker-slider combination well enough at Jacobs Field to lead the American League in ERA last season, and his ground-ball style should help him at Ameriquest Field in Arlington. The Rangers need someone to show their collection of young power pitchers that you can succeed at this hitter's park, and Millwood will provide a good example.
That's great, but really, how much is it worth for him to "show that you can succeed"? $1 million a year? 2? Will Kameron Loe and Juan Dominguez suddenly lower the ERAs by half a run once they see Millwood post a 4.30 ERA at home next year?
With Michael Young, Mark Teixeira, Hank Blalock and Rod Barajas, the Rangers have a core of players to compete with Oakland and the Angels in the AL West. They needed to change the face of a defeated pitching staff, and Daniels did that. Millwood might not have five good seasons in him -- no pitcher in his 30s is a good bet for that -- but this deal will be worth it if Millwood helps a floundering organization re-establish its credibility.
He's one year removed from a 4.85 ERA (90 ERA+) and he's essentially been league average or worse for five of his eight full seasons in the major leagues.
At least Phil is consistently wrong, though. He also hates the low-risk, one year Dodger deal for Nomar Garciaparra and loves the $16 million given to 41-year-old crazy person Kenny Rogers.
Labels: kevin millwood, phil rogers
Sean McAdam typically does a fine job, but this paragraph in
a recent article for ESPN.com struck me as unsubstantiated:
Cleveland has a deep rotation, with as many as four pitchers capable of quality starts: C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook and Kevin Millwood. But only Sabathia, with exactly one postseason start on his resume, is capable of taking charge of a playoff series.Why is Sabathia the only one who can "take charge" of a playoff series? Because he throws the hardest? Shouldn't we be looking at who's the best pitcher?
Kevin Millwood and Cliff Lee have better ERAs and WHIPs than Sabathia. In fact, Millwood's ERA this year is lower than Sabathia's career low.
Maybe Sabathia's been particularly good against teams the Indians might face in the playoffs. Let me check ... nope. A nifty 17.36 ERA against Boston, 9.72 against Oakland, and mediocrities in the 4 and 5 range for the Angels and the White Sox. Millwood, meanwhile, has been average against the Red Sox, bad against the Yankees, and excellent against the Angels and the White Sox (ERAs of 2.03 and 1.29, respectively).
Not that those sample sizes are especially meaningful.
What about experience, a factor I'm not entirely convinced is even important? McAdam himself points out that Sabathia has only one postseason start. Millwood checks in with seven playoff starts and nine total appearances. In those starts, he recorded a decent enough 3.92 ERA while striking out 38 and walking 6. His WHIP, believe it or not, was below 1.
It's time to stop categorizing guys as aces because of "stuff" and start looking at performance.
My point is, I have a huge crush on Kevin Millwood.
Labels: c.c. sabathia, kevin millwood, sean mcadam
Steve Phillips, I can't believe someone put you in charge of a major league baseball team.
Bryan (Fayetteville): Among all the teams in the chase for the AL Wild Card, pick one player who could impact their team the most by stepping up the batting? Steve Phillips: The key guy for the Angels is Rodriguez. He has to stabilize the end of their games for the Angels to have a chance. The Yanks need Musinna and Johnson to pitch like the aces they are. The Indians need Kevin Millwood to pitch well enough to win, not well enough to lose. Pitchers can't complain about run support this late in the season. If your team scores 2, then hold your opponent to 1. Millwood has pitched well but not well enough to win.>> Kevin Millwood has the fifth-best ERA in the AL. He has a better WHIP than Roy Oswalt, A.J. Burnett, and Randy Johnson.
But he can't score runs for his team. Pitchers aren't allowed to do that in the AL.
If your team scores 2, then hold your opponent to 1.>> Kevin Millwood has, in fact, allowed 1 ER four times this season. His record in this four outings? One win, two losses, and one no-decision. Guess he should have thrown a lot more complete game shutouts.
Actually, in four of his losses, his team scored zero runs, so maybe that wouldn't have helped that much. In Millwood's 11 losses, his team has scored an aggregate of 13 runs.
But sure, he's pitched well enough to lose.
Consider that phrase: "well enough to lose." If you think it makes sense, please consult a doctor. You may have been the victim of a Phineas Gage-style mishap in which a pole is lodged inside your skull and certain parts of your brain.
EDIT:I can't believe I missed this, but Bryan from Fayetteville's question specifically ends with "pick one player who could impact their team the most
by stepping up the batting?" (emphasis mine)
Phillips names four players,
all of them pitchers.
The rest of the post still stands.
Labels: kevin millwood, steve phillips
