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KT said it already, and here's the link. It seems that rational thought has somehow insinuated itself back into Le Ravine Chavez (pronounced sha-vay). But wait -- here's Snakeskin Boots Colletti's quote on the matter:
"Is he [Pierre] a bench player or is he not starting tomorrow?" Colletti asked. "It's a long season. You've got to compete, you've got to play. I understand the build-up to Opening Day. But you look at a lot of Opening Day rosters and there are players you can't even recognize. It changes day by day."
Reading between the lines, I'd say it's fifty-fifty that Bootsy's going to DFA Ethier by the end of the week so Torre's forced to play a real man in left field. A man who can bunt. A man who can swunt. A man whose skills range from bunting okay to swunting acceptably well. A man who is constantly hailed as the consummate professional but was already complaining before the decision was made to replace him with a better player ("If they want to go a different route," Pierre said, "I can live with it and I have to understand it but it's something I don't get.")
Snakeskin has spoken. This story is far from over.
SI.com's Jon Heyman has a list of trades that "should happen." Here's #1: 1. Scott Rolen to the Dodgers
Los Angeles is desperately seeking additional power, and Rolen fits the bill.
In that he's slugging .318 in 129 AB this year, has an EqA of .230, is 32 and expensive, and is always injured? Is that the "bill" he fits?
Ned Colletti, one of the game's more aggressive GMs, has looked just about everywhere for power, which is the glaring weakness on an otherwise well-balanced team. Colletti recently said he wasn't going after Blue Jays third baseman Troy Glaus. But he hasn't denied interest in Rolen.
Troy Glaus: 30 years old, slugging .614 with a .346 EqA. This = better. (Edit: I am getting slammed on e-mail, so I will hereby add what I thought, on May 20, was an implied: Small Sample Size Alert!!!The original point was: Glaus is younger and equally injured and hitting better.)
The Cardinals have not yet signaled they're ready to throw in the towel, but if things continue to go south, it would make sense to trade Rolen, who has an uneasy relationship with manager Tony La Russa and would have some market value despite his awful start (.215). (Rolen has three years and $36 million remaining on his contract after this season.) The Dodgers have prospects to trade, including a third baseman, Andy LaRoche, plus young pitchers.
Who would be dumb enough to trade for Scott Rolen? Who is dumb enough to think that Scott Rolen will provide "power" for a team, especially one that plays in a cavernous stadium? And who would be dumb enough to trade Andy LaRoche, who is 23, cost-controlled, and 7-for-his-first-27 with 2 2B, for Scott Rolen, who will be paid $12m a year until 2009?
While the point that Rolen is hardly an answer to offensive woes, your implication that Dodger Stadium is cavernous was off-base. Dodger Stadium actually increases home runs for hitters, rating just below Coors Field in that category. While it's overall Index is below average for runs (at 95), it is a HR park.
Mea culpa. I looked at the wrong stat row on ESPN's Park Factor's page. And you'll see why, if you follow this link soon, before it all changes, and you notice that Coors Field is .877 for HR. What the hell?!?!
Ned Colletti is cornering the market on leadoff hitters. One year after signing Rafael Furcal to a surprising three-year, $39 million contract, the Dodgers GM landed Juan Pierre for five years, $45 million.
They apparently will bat Pierre in the No. 2 spot, using his high-contact, low-impact approach in a traditional, Nellie Fox fashion. It's amazing that a guy the Cubs were ambivalent about re-signing could land a five-year contract, but Pierre has a good reputation within the game and led the National League with 204 hits.
"This man gets on base an awful lot," Colletti said. "He gets 200 hits or more, is a great guy on a club and, like Nomar (Garciaparra), has great qualities as a human being."
.260 is league average. And it takes SB into account, so don't start yelling about his SBs.
At least Pierre averages 12 HR. Per 4110 AB.
Can Juan Pierre's great qualities as a human being reach base? Because if they can, he might be worth the forty-five million dollars they are going to pay him until he is 34 years old. Hitting him second is going to murder this offense.
And as the linked blurb goes onto say:
Pierre also led the league with 20 caught-stealings, the fifth time in six years he has been at the top of that category. The most troubling stat was just 32 walks in 740 plate appearances. Pitchers have realized there's no reason not to challenge him.
And:
The Dodgers would have been better to re-sign Kenny Lofton and wait another year on 22-year-old Matt Kemp, who has shown he can become a dynamic force in center.
Ned Colletti is so much better than Paul Computeresta, isn't he?
Because if they get eliminated, maybe, just maybe, Bill Plaschke will stop gushing purple prose?
I mean, seriously, does anyone like this nonsense?
SAN FRANCISCO — And so the gift has finally been unwrapped, torn open by a steely eyed team that could wait no longer, the wrappings of six months ripped apart to reveal something Los Angeles never expected.
Something in the most perfect shade of blue.
Dear L.A. Times sports section editor,
One of your opinion columns in the October 1st issue was mistakenly replaced by an embarrassing eighth grade short story.
Give me my dollar back, Junior Something that beats, and beats, and beats.
Goddammit. You are not a good writer. Listen, all you aspiring sportswriters out there: you can't just write a sentence fragment for every paragraph and expect that to create drama and impact for you. It's the oldest trick in the book. Bill Plashcke does it in every column, so you know it's bad. Less than a year after collapsing under the weight of their own incompetence, the Dodgers are whole again.
A team that 11 months ago had no general manager, no manager and the third-worst record in its league has made the playoffs.
Kudos, BP. Those are complete sentences. From national jokers to wild-card qualifier. From a winter of chaos to a summer of character.
AAARGH NO
Something tells me no one would be writing about what great guys the Dodgers are if they weren't also very good at playing baseball. A collection of quiet veterans, anonymous role players and unknown rookies gathered as a single faceless force to shower their city with something cool and bubbly and totally unexpected.
Quiet veterans like notorious mustachioed asshole Jeff Kent. Anonymous role players like Gatorade pitchman and Hamm-boner Nomar Garciaparra. Unknown rookies like Andre Ethier, whom a long-dead Dodgers scout discovered while driving his phantom pickup truck in the afterworld.
"This hasn't just taken 25 guys, it has taken more than 25 guys, and we've known it, and we've won because of it," said pitcher Derek Lowe. "The best thing about this team is, it's a team."
Trust me, Derek: it was the guys playing. Maybe a few more than 25 because of AAA callups and such. But the reason you're in the playoffs is because the pitchers and hitters wearing your uniform performed well.
I like to take things literally.
Also, I'm nominating "The best thing about this team is, it's a team" for the Meaningless Tautological Cliche Hall of Fame. That was the plan back when McCourt cleaned house last fall, firing former general manager Paul DePodesta just weeks after DePodesta fired former manager Jim Tracy.
In only his second full season as owner, McCourt realized he had blown it in some of his original hires DEPODESTA, and he wasn't afraid to DEPODESTA become nationally scorned by admitting it DEPODESTA.
I added the DEPODESTAs so you would get what Plaschke is talking about.
"I am not afraid to fail DEPODESTA in order to succeed," McCourt said Saturday.
That one was in the original article, I swear. Standing a few feet away was another unmistakable presence, wearing a wet Dodger T-shirt and a starry stare.
And a galactic grin and a supernova-y stance and these awesome snakeskin boots that I might have written about before and did I mention how wet and sexy his T-shirt was? His name is Ned and I think we're friends. I hope (fingers crossed)!
The actual construction began with him, the man McCourt hired to fix things, the rookie general manager who was given a losing team and unwieldy contracts and little chance.
As a lifetime baseball man, he understood only one thing: that you win not with numbers but with humans.
Let's get serious here for a second. Of course you win with humans. You win with humans with numbers. Those numbers are nothing but a written record of what humans have done while playing baseball. Why is this so hard to understand? What's really up for debate here is how much character and intangibles matter when evaluating players. If Plaschke had a gun put to his head and had to put a percentage on it, what do you think he would say? 10%? 50%? 100%? The correct answer: he would weasel out and say "you can't put a number on things like heart and hustle" except he would phrase it in a sentence fragment paragraph. And although the Dodgers may not have the best statistics among this year's playoff teams, they certainly lead the league in relentless humans.
The Dodgers are fourth in the NL in runs scored and fourth in ERA. That's why they're in the playoffs. The only team ranked above them in both categories are the Mets, who are third in each. In sum: the Dodgers are very close to having the "best statistics" in the National League because they are very close to being the best team. Statistics measure baseball performance. This is an irritating, repetitive recording that will not stop.
The Dodgers are not going to the playoffs because Brett Tomko is a more relentless human being than Jamie Moyer. "You have to believe in the heart of the individual, you have to listen to that heart, that's all I've done here," he said. "I knew I had my hands full. But I also knew it was possible to find that heart."
Does Ned Colletti really believe this shit?
What a dumb question. Of course he does.
But Maddux' best number is this: The Dodgers are 37-19 since he joined them.
"The minute he walked into my office after I traded for him, I had this sense of calmness that I haven't lost since," Colletti said.
To me, that's Maddux' real best number. Number of minutes Ned Colletti hasn't been calm since Maddux walked into his office: zero. It is a calmness that, finally, was cemented in the stone sculpture that is Grady Little's glare.
What? WHAT?! Is anyone else reading this? What? It is a calmness that, finally, was cemented in the stone sculpture that is Grady Little's glare.
I had to see it again to make sure it was real.
I am so sick of Bill Plaschke's faux-etry. Bill Plaschke is Tim McCarver with a keyboard. Bill Plaschke is that annoying girl at the party who's somehow both dumb and pretentious and keeps complaining that "the mainstream media is too surface-y." Bill Plaschke sucks at metaphors. Otherwise, I think he's okay.
I honestly don't. Bill Plaschke has absolutely outdone himself. I mean, for God's sake, the article is called
There's Trust in His Eyes
And it is pure (read: terrible) poetry.
Around the hotel table sat Dodgers executives discussing trades.
In the corner sat the old scout watching television.
Around the hotel table they were talking about dumping Milton Bradley and wondering whom they should demand from the Oakland A's in return.
In the corner sat the old scout who has never worked with radar gun, computer or even stopwatch.
Just like good scouts do. Good scouts never use scouting tools. They trust their goddamn eyes, and their guts, and their spleens. Why?
Because Old Hoss Radbourn was not discovered with a computer, dargbloomit! He was discovered because 130 year-old Petey "Garbageface" Krunkston, who had been a rookie league manager for 142 years and had seen a goddamn ballgame or two in his day, woke up one morning with a wart shaped like a flame on his left arm, and he turned to his wife of 186 years Edna Mae and he said, "The flame mole's back, darlin.' I's a gone and what been done and moseyed to the ballpark -- there's sure to be a great future prospect a-lurkin' about, iffin' the flame mole done appeared-a-mafied on m'arm!" And he did go down there t' ol' Brasston Park, and sure 'nuff, a 4 year-old Hoss Radbourn was thar, an' he was a-throwin' and a-hittin somethin' fierce! And bloogburrmit if Garbageface didn't sign that 4 year-old right then and there! And he became a Hall-of-Famer!!!!!
Around the hotel room table, someone mentioned an unknown double-A outfielder named Andre Ethier.
In the corner, the old scout jumped.
Is Plaschke the most overblown prose artiste in the business, or what? In the corner...around the hotel table...in the corner... I swear, I think Plaschke believes he is the walking embodiment of James Earl Jones's character in "Field of Dreams." People will come, Bill. People will read. People will vomit.
"Wait a minute!" shouted Al LaMacchia. "I know Andre Ethier!"
In a gait slowed by years of climbing bleachers, LaMacchia walked over from the television to the table.
With Dodgers executives staring at him in amazement, the old scout began to sell.
Were they really staring at him "in amazement?" Were you there, Plaschke? I find it hard to believe that in an organizational meeting to discuss prospects the team might want to acquire, that when a scout started talking about a AA prospect, the rest of the organization "stared at him in amazement."
GM: We need some good minor leaguers.
Scout: Hey! I know some minor leaguers!
GM: (falls off chair in dismay) Ga-ga-ga-ga-ga goink!!! This is our lucky day!!!!!!!
He was on the phone, and it sounded as if he was crying.
"You're writing something about an old fella like me?" said Al LaMacchia.
He's 85, and he's been scouting for 51 years, and he can't believe anybody still cares.
I tell him I am writing the story because the Dodgers still care.
For the first time since Fred Claire was their last world championship general manager, the Dodgers are listening to their older scouts again.
They are reading reports scrawled in aging penmanship. They are evaluating players based on dusted-off instincts.
Ned Colletti's new administration is still using computers, but they also value guys who have no idea how to turn one on.
"I trust my eyes," LaMacchia said. "Been good enough so far."
Colletti trusted LaMacchia's recommendation at last year's winter meetings in Dallas, and the Dodgers are in first place in August, and that is no coincidence.
I'm sorry. I can't stop snortling derisively. Hang on. ... Okay. There.
The Dodgers are 64-57. They have the worst record of any first-place team. Let's not go bragging about any aspect of their brilliant system just yet. A month ago they lost like 40 games in a row, and in most other divisions they'd be basically nowheresville.
"You cannot microwave experience," Colletti said. "The only way to get it is to live it. I want guys who have lived it."
Colletti has hired two scouts/advisors since joining the Dodgers last winter in moves typical of him but totally uncharacteristic of any other CEO anywhere.
Both of the new guys were over 70.
Get ready. Here's my favorite part.
The scout, Phil Rizzo, lives in Chicago and does nothing but attend Cubs and White Sox games.
"The guy who watched a bunch of Maddux starts and filed the reports on him?" Colletti asked. "That was him."
I am going to hit return ten times, leaving a wide open white space on this blog, so we can all reflect on how unbelievably stupid that is. Ready? Begin reflecting. Then read the rest of this post, because Plaschke has a lot more to say.
You are telling me that you needed to hire someone to tell you that Greg Maddux might be a good pitcher? I mean, the guy is old, but...he's Greg Maddux. You play in Dodger Stadium, which is pretty friendly to pitchers, generally. He's Greg Maddux. You needed a 70 year-old scout, with all of his accumulated baseball knowledge, to tell you that Greg Maddux might help your team? He's Greg Maddux.
The advisor is Bill Lajoie, a longtime baseball executive who helped engineer the trade with one of his former employers, Atlanta, for Wilson Betemit.
Everyone in the universe knew Betemit was a good young player. He was a 25 year-old SS with a .784 OPS. What are you saying?
"Scouts are my lifeblood, they see players, they know players, they can tell you things that you can't get anywhere else,"' said Colletti.
LaMacchia knew Ethier.
It required thousands of miles on his old Ford, and pages of scribbling in his little black date book.
It required a brief break for congestive heart failure — "He told me it was just a little thing, he'd be back in a week" said Colletti — and it took him all of last summer.
Okay.
I just typed "Andre Ethier" into Google. The first hit I got was from thebaseballcube.com. I clicked on it, and I learned:
in 2005, for the Midland, TX Oakland A's AA team, Andre Ethier:
I also learned that at ASU, a big-time program, Ethier crushed the ball, putting up a 1.061 OPS with a 52/30 BB/K ratio, and was a 2-time Pac-10 All-Star OF.
I also learned that in 2005 he was the MVP of the Texas League, as well as the Oakland A's Minor League Player of the Fucking Year (emphasis and cussing mine).
You're telling me it took a million miles of driving and a heart attack and 368 years of baseball experience to tell that the 2005 OAKLAND A'S MINOR LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE FUCKING YEAR might be a guy who might interest you? Whatever, man. I learned it in twelve seconds with a computer.
My leg does itch a little though -- I think I have dry skin. Does that medical ailment mean my opinion counts more?
But LaMacchia made it his business to know Ethier.
"I guess that's what I do," he said. "I try to know players."
Most scouts do. Even the ones who use technology.
Working as a national scout from his home in San Antonio, where he lives with his wife of 62 years, Annie, LaMacchia would watch Ethier as he played for Oakland's double-A Midland team.
He saw him play in San Antonio, and Corpus Christi, and Frisco. He saw him taking early batting practice on 100-degree days, and running out ground balls at the end of blowout losses.
He didn't need a stopwatch to judge his hustle. He didn't need a computer to feel his swing. And when LaMacchia ever needs a radar gun reading, well, he just asks one of the scouts sitting next to him.
Luckily, one of the scouts has a radar gun. Because otherwise, LaMacchia would have no idea how fast the guy's throwing.
"The younger fellas look at me like I'm strange," he said. "But it's all in my heart and my head."
In Ethier, he saw so much potential, one day he couldn't help himself.
He walked down to the dugout railing and started giving him instructions.
Said LaMacchia: "I wanted to help the young kid, tell him not to try to pull everything, tell him to take what they gave him."
Said Ethier: "I thought he was just some crazy old man yelling at me from the stands."
I don't blame you, Andre.
A couple of old-timers quickly set the kid straight.
LaMacchia was a right-handed pitcher who won a couple of big-league games for St. Louis and Washington in the mid-1940s then became a legendary talent evaluator.
He played the game! Hey Joe Morgan -- rest easy, man, this guy played the game! You can listen to his opinions. They are valid!
I can't help it anymore. The rest of my comments will be in super-angry all-caps.
...When Ethier's name came up at the winter meetings, LaMacchia perked up as if they were talking about his son.
Logan White, the Dodgers scouting director, also had knowledge of Ethier. But it was LaMacchia's enthusiasm and information that sealed the deal.
"No question, I give Al full credit for this one," said Colletti. "He knew the guy. He loved the guy. We listened to him."
Colletti immediately asked the A's for Ethier. And, initially, he was turned down.
BECAUSE HE WAS THEIR 2005 MINOR LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE YEAR. I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY TIMES I CAN EMPHASIZE THIS.
"But I kept thinking about what Al said, and I kept asking," Colletti said.
DID YOU KEEP THINKING ABOUT HOW HE WAS THEIR 2005 MINOR LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE YEAR?
When the A's wanted the Dodgers to add infielder Antonio Perez to the trade, LaMacchia again pushed Ethier, telling Colletti that the kid had a chance to be better than Bradley or Perez.
"The A's finally gave in, and we got what we wanted," said Colletti.
Did they ever. While the A's received two serviceable players who have probably reached their peak, the Dodgers received a possible rookie of the year.
A PREDICTION ONE MIGHT HAVE ARRIVED AT, KNOWING HIS MINOR LEAGUE STATS, AS WELL AS HIS FIRST-PLACE FINISH IN THE RACE TO BE THE OAKLAND A'S 2005 MINOR LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE YEAR.
Before Tuesday, Ethier led all National League rookies in batting average (.333), on-base percentage (.390) and slugging percentage (.557).
He also has an old buddy who still occasionally calls him on the cellphone and reminds him to take what they give him.
From his San Antonio home this week, LaMacchia sighed.
"I am so grateful somebody still listens to me," he said.
From the Dodgers' clubhouse Tuesday, Ethier smiled.
"Everyone thinks they do all these analyses before they make a trade, but, in the end, I'm a Dodger because of that crazy old man," he said. "I can't thank him enough."
YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN AN OAKLAND A IF HE HADN'T TRADED FOR YOU, AND YOUR TEAM WOULD HAVE A BETTER RECORD.
Once and for all:
I don't think -- NO ONE THINKS -- that scouts are worthless. EVERYONE who watches baseball and knows about baseball knows the value of scouting. It has value. Okay? It has value. It can tell you things about a player's constitution, and hustle, and all that stuff, which is definitely important.
But what has as much, if not more, value -- in nearly every single fucking possible scenario -- is the analysis of statistical information.
If you seek to invalidate the use of statistical analysis...if you denigrate it, mock it, or look down your nose at it...if you write terrible mock-poetry articles declaring the objective superiority of gut instinct and old-fashioned "stare tests" over numbers-based research...then you are a far bigger snob, a far bigger ignoramus, and a far more provincial person than those whom you target with tripe like this.
Now if you'll excuse me, I have to drive 1600 miles on a pack mule to St. Louis so I can give Albert Pujols a little look-see. Want to be able to speak up tomorrow when the Boss Man asks me if we should try to trade for 'im.
1. Very special thanks to reader Bryan for the tip. 2. The title of this post, if you're curious, refers to Plaschke's article, and not my feelings about my own writing. 3. My feelings abot my own writing are nearly always: "...eh."
Before people get all hot and bothered about Greg Maddux, let's consider sample size. So far with the Dodgers, this is what Maddux has done in three starts:
20 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 4 BB
Pretty damn good. But wait. Let's take a look at Maddux' first four starts this season with the Cubs:
27.1 IP, 3 ER, 18 K, 5 BB
Remember, dude was 5-0 with a 1.35 ERA in April. This year. Then the wheels totally fell off, with ERAs of 5.94, 6.25, and 5.21 in the next three months.
Before people get all hot and bothered about Andre Ethier, let's consider sample size. So far this year, this is what he's done:
92 games, 290 AB, .338/.383/.545, 11 HR
Now take a look at Player X:
97 games, 368 AB, .329/.384/.527, 12 HR
Give up? Player X is 31-year-old utility man Mark DeRosa, he of the career .752 OPS. (And it's not the Texas ballpark -- he's OPSing over 100 points higher on the road.) I'm not saying Ethier is Mark DeRosa, but I don't think he's a .340 BA, .900 OPS guy either (E-thier??? get it???). His totals over 3 minor league seasons look like this: .312/.382/.455.
Longer comment? Sure, don't mind if I do. Take a look at Rookie Y:
51 games, 140 AB, .321/.386/.521, 7 HR
Sure, it's only half as many at bats, but Matt Murton sure looked like a world-beater last year. This year he's come back to earth with a .784 OPS and 8 HR in 317 AB.
My point is that Bill Plaschke probably jerks off to old-people porn.
I only highlighted MLVr because that's the biggest disparity (among players with a min. 300 ABs, he ranks 15th in the majors), and there's nothing at which he has equally underperformed that balances it out somewhat. At his current rate, he would end up with a VORP of roughly 39-40. Something else, too, is that his BABIP is .396.
A BABIP of .396 is nuts. The guy is getting a little bit lucky, I'd say. He seems like a good player, but he will probably come back down to earth a bit. That's one point. The other point is that if PECOTA had him projected for a .290 EqA, an .848 OPS, and a 5.0 WARP, how the hell did no one else in the Dodgers' organization know about him?
Finally, our friend the Beautiful Cynic writes:
The entire crux of his argument relies on his statement early on that "Around the hotel room table, someone mentioned an unknown double-A outfielder named Andre Ethier." How "unknown" could Andre Ethier have been if I'd read about him every two weeks in Baseball America?
Remember that thing I wrote about Mike Downey's unhealthy, slightly embarrassing crush on Cesar Izturis? It's like two posts down. You should check it out. Anyway, allow me to propose an analogy:
Mike Downey : Cesar Izturis :: Bill Plaschke : Ned Colletti
Bill Plaschke writes for the L.A. Times. Often insufferably. He basically ran former Dodger GM Paul DePodesta out of town because DePodesta is a nerd who wears glasses and uses computers and hates baseball. When Ned Colletti rolled into town to take over, Plaschke spurted his approval. You may recall the following sentence (which I wrote about in a post on this page):
His name is Ned Colletti, and he's an old-time baseball guy, from his affection for snakeskin boots to his love of snake-free clubhouses.
How does Plaschke feel about Ol' Snakeskin Boots' deadline deals? Just fine, thanks:
Trades Fuel Dodgers for the Pennant Drive
Moments before the Dodgers were officially a rebuilding team that no longer cared about wins?
Ned Colletti brought in 327 of them.
You know those people who say "you can use numbers to show anything" and "numbers lie" and "I don't trust numbers, don't give me numbers, God, anything but numbers"? These are the very same people who use numbers in the wrong way. Has anybody noticed this? It's fantastic. They love to spout off about how skeptical they are of statistics. Then, in the very next breath, they're justifying trades based on the number of career wins a player has. Let's keep an eye on how many times Bill Plaschke cites statistics wrongheadedly or unproductively in this article alone. Here he dramatically points out to the reader that Greg Maddux has (gasp!) 327 wins in his lifetime. Well, yes. He's 40 years old, has had a terrific career, and he's one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. Of course he's going to have a boatload of wins. Anyone reading this Bill Plaschke column about the Dodgers' deadline trades probably has a decent sense of who Greg Maddux is and what he's done. But how much does the fact that Maddux has 300+ wins really help us predict how good he'll be for the Dodgers for the remaining two months of the season? My guess is: not much. I think this was a good trade for the Dodgers -- we've seen in the Downey post what kind of hitter Izturis is. But citing Maddux' career win total is next to worthless in this context. Except for how good it makes Ned Colletti look. Moments before the Dodgers were condemned to two months with a makeshift infield and powerless batting order?
Ned Colletti added an infielder who is immediately tied for the team lead in home runs.
Again, I like this move pretty well (he's talking about Julio Lugo). But how impressive is this statistic, exactly? Lugo has 12 home runs so far this year. Good for a middle infielder, but a downright lousy mark for first place on a team. I mean, Bill Hall (another middle infielder) has 24 home runs. Bill Hall. Plus, how fluky is it that Lugo has even 12 homers in 73 games? If you look at his career stats, the answer is very. In eight seasons, he's hit a total of 68 taters. The last two years, he's hit 6 and 7, respectively, while playing 158 and 157 games. So something tells me his home run rate is going to drop.
What I'm saying is, chalk up another misleading statistic for Mr. Plaschke.
In the final breaths before baseball's trading deadline Monday, with his team's fans huddled in front of an empty hearth and dreading the onset of winter, Colletti burst through the door with arms full and smile wide.
First, Ned is a studly, dangerous, bad-boy love interest for Plaschke. Now it appears Plaschke has father-figure issues.
In his one hand, the smartest available pitcher, Greg Maddux.
Nice hedge, there. In his other hand, the best available infielder, Julio Lugo.
No complaints about that. Lugo is good.
Now, if you'll indulge me for just a second, I'd like to be nitpicky about writing style instead of baseball objectivity. Will at Deadspin has pointed this out before: sportswriters love single-sentence paragraphs. Even more than this, they love single-sentence-fragment paragraphs. Take a look at what Plaschke's written so far. That's right -- it's seven single-sentence or single-fragment paragraphs. Now glance at the text I'm about to copy and paste below. (Here's a hint: it's ten more one-line paragraphs. And one two-sentence graph -- to throw people off!)
In his wallet, every top Dodgers prospect remained.
In baseball parlance, a two-run walk-off homer.
"I don't think we're that far away," Colletti said. "This should give everybody a lift."
A lift in attitude, from the clubhouse kids to the top-level ushers, everyone realizing this new Dodgers administration will refuse to give up on a season.
A lift in ability, with holes plugged in the rotation, infield and batting order.
And a huge lift over the Angels, who once again ignored their fans and abandoned their players and failed to add the hitter that could have taken them to the World Series.
Sure, the Angels have enough pitching to win their division, but with their recent history and current payroll, a division title is not enough anymore.
For the Dodgers, for now, the playoffs are plenty.
Even though they were five games out of first place in the awful West at the time of the trade, this move could take them there.
"There's plenty of time to make up five games," Maddux said.
Despite being 40 and struggling for the Chicago Cubs since April with the third-worst winning percentage of any regular starter in baseball — 4-11, 27% — it all starts with Maddux.
Hi. Hopefully you've gotten through all eleven of those choppy, dramatic, newspapery paragraphs. I'm still here. And hey, look, it's another statistic. Winning percentage! Plaschke, you dog, you've done it again! Maddux has been atrocious in the last three months, but you happen to have chosen one of the least legitimate statistics ever invented to show that. Did you know that Roger Clemens has a winning percentage of 33% this year? I looked it up. He must be terrible! But wait, he also has 343 career wins! He must be terrific! Such is life in Plaschkeworld.
As long as he can still think, he can still pitch. And with the stakes higher and the air thicker and the infielders hungrier, he can pitch here.
I don't know, I bet he'll still be able to think okay when he's 58, but I sure as hell don't want him pitching for my team at that age.
Anybody remember his last Dodger Stadium appearance in April? In eight innings he gave up three hits, struck out six, walked none and won, 4-1.
Sample size = 1.
Besides having the most career wins of any pitcher to start a Dodgers game, Maddux arrives dressed in a career 2.94 August earned-run average and a 3.63 September ERA.
Aaaargh! Career August ERA? CAREER AUGUST ERA? And wow, his career September ERA is 3.63? It turns out that's awful for Maddux -- it's more than half a run worse than his overall career ERA of 3.06. So on average, if you really believe that a pitcher's performance corresponds in any way to the first number in the date, Greg Maddux is worse in September than he is the rest of the year. But honestly, let's not lose sight of the fact that Bill Plaschke thinks what Greg Maddux did for the Cubs in September of 1988 is relevant to how he's going to pitch for the Dodgers in 2006. Also, that he's one of those "statistics lie" people.
Hold on, Plaschke's wrapping up. Everybody quiet! I think he's going to mix in some longer paragraphs instead of using the cliched choppy-ending-to-a-sports-article big finish.
And a huge lift over the Angels, who once again ignored their fans and abandoned their players and failed to add the hitter that could have taken them to the World Series.
Was Plaschke asleep during the trade deadline? The Angels tried hard to get Miguel Tejada. It's not their fault that Peter Angelos is an enormous fool who nixed dealing Tejada for the very generous package the Angels offered. How was not getting Tejada the Angels' fault?
And from the very pithy Ed:
And to think, he did all with the blink of an Izturis and the flick of a Guzman.
''Do I use VORP?" Colletti said, referring to one such sabermetric tool, Value Over Replacement Player. ''I may be using it and not even know it, and if I am, it's nobody's business. There are a lot of different criteria in judging players. I think I use, um, esoteric qualitative mathematical review times five. That's one of them."
You would think if you were a baseball general manager, and you hadn't bothered to learn anything about baseball statistical evaluation, you might just keep your mouth shut. Or at least, be 1% respectful of what might be a useful tool in your line of business. Instead, Colletti sounds like an old codger mistrustful of the newfangled ideas in this day and age. If Ned Colletti were alive in Islamic Spain in the 11th century, he would be saying, "Astrolabe? I don't be needin' no damn astrolabe! I gauge where the sun and stars are gonna be usin' my gut and my peepers and my pointin' fingers!"
Also, I think he means quantitative, not qualitative. Numbers are quantitative. Math is quantitative. An old guy sitting in the stands judging the symmetry of a prospect's face is qualitative.
That was Colletti's way of saying he still does it the old-fashioned way. ''I like scouts with 20, 30, 40 years experience who can tell if a player knows how to play the game, who read how a guy's body works, who knows how he responds in big situations, who knows how to examine a medical history, who can take the measure of a guy's desire to be great."
Knows how to play the game. Empty cliche.
How a guy's body works. Vague. Probably impossible to judge.
How he responds in big situations. How often will a scout see a guy in a "big situation"? 3 times? 5? 15 if he's lucky? Good luck judging a dude's hypothetical clutch factor with that sample size.
How to examine a medical history. Yes, people should do this. Doctors, mainly.
The measure of a guy's desire to be great. Well, yes, if a guy is obviously a lazy slob, he probably won't be that good for your team. But let me ask you, could you tell me which of these guys has more desire to be great (DTBG)?
Michael Young or Derek Jeter Alex Gonzalez or Alex S. Gonzalez Josh Willingham or Jarrod Saltalamacchia Ken Griffey, Jr. or Gary Matthews, Jr.
I bet there are differences in their VORPs, though.
Want to Copy Someone? Do the Opposite of What They Do!
I have a question for Michael Ventre, who, one would think, has actually watched sports in order to prepare for his job as a sportswriter.
His article is called "Dodgers Hope ‘Red Sox West’ Brings Success" and has the subtitle: "Nomar signing cements move to try and [sic] copy Boston’s winning formula."
You can probably figure out what the article is about: the Dodgers have named Grady Little their manager, and now signed Nomar, and Billy Mueller, and also have Derek Lowe. So, Ventre writes, they are trying to copy the Red Sox' blueprint for success.
Here's my question for Michael Ventre: you are wrong.
Fine. Not really a question. Who cares.
Grady Little was fired because he (a) made one of the worst and most memorable blunders in the history of managing, and (b) did not in any way fit into the Red Sox' modified-Moneyball blueprint for success (RSM-MBFS). So, hiring him is the opposite of copying the RSM-MBFS.
Nomar is a 32 year-old SS with no plate discipline who was traded because his diminishing bat speed and history of injuries made him a bad fit in the RSM-MBFS. Therefore, (see above).
Billy Mueller was a very important part of the RSM-MBFS. But he is 34 and his skills are declining, so the Sox let him go. Don't you think that if he were a viable candidate to continue contributing to the RSM-MBFS he would still be a part of the RSM-MBFS?
Derek Lowe is a head-case who doesn't strike anyone out and the Dodgers gave him a 14-year $214 million contract.
Read the article. It's really dumb and talks about Ned Colletti a lot -- a guy who is so completely the opposite of the kind of dude who would be the architect for the RSM-MBFS it's not even funny.
Bruce Jenkins is paid -- every week, presumably -- to write about things for the San Francisco Chronicle. Here's one example of what they get for their money. The subject is new Dodgers' GM Ned Colletti. (Thanks to reader Tony and others for the link.)
Some people in L.A. have expressed concern that Colletti was never a scout, but take our word for it: He sees the game as well as anybody.
He has excellent vision, and his position as GM means he has great seats to every game.
And that's the key: He sees it. He'll take statistics into account, but Colletti is the kind of guy whose first impression of a prospect might be, "There goes a ballplayer" -- and he'll be right.
The secret behind this amazing ability: He identifies them by their uniforms, and the fact that they are holding mitts and bats.
"To me," he says, "how a player approaches the game, how he approaches life, far outweighs what the stat line looks like." For Dodger fans weary of Paul DePodesta's computer-generated philosophies, there is palpable relief.
Really? This is what you want? A guy who actually says that the way a guy "approaches" the game is not as important as how well he plays the game? Look, DePo made some mistakes, and more importantly, he got absolutely housed by injuries. But why there is this sense of snotty "vindication," or something, by people who frown on actual analysis of players' abilities...I just don't understand it. It has the same flavor as a bunch of 19th century noblemen sipping brandy in a drawing room and laughing about the idea that women would get involved in politics, or something. "Well, of course, the very idea of this new approach is ludicrous. But we'll let them have their little fun, and then get back to the way things ought to be."
Along those lines, such mercurial talents as Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford are reportedly available in trade. The "Moneyball" guys can forget them. Way too fast and disruptive. Too much imagination. Too much of a threat to manufacture runs.
If you're going to snidely dismiss us, please cite players we would actually not want. Carl Crawford can play on my Moneyball team anyday. He's 24 years old. His OPS in the last three years has gone .671/.781/.800. His HR have gone 5-11-15. He is awesome. I might take Pierre as well, though his OPS dropped 100 points from 2004-05, and his .326 OBP last year just killed his team.
Also: "too much imagination?" What the effing eff are you talking about? That doesn't mean anything. These two guys do exactly what all baseball players do: they hit, run, and field. Does "imagination" mean "bunting?" Sometimes these two guys bunt. Or does it mean "steal bases?" Because lots of guys do this -- and these two guys do it well. The reason they are good is because they are good hitters and they are fast and play good defense. The reason Crawford is excellent -- and a potential MVP candidate someday, if you ask me -- is because he also hits for power, which Pierre does not do.
And please, please, please, stop using the phrase "manufacture runs." Please. I beg of you. It's really dumb.
The point is, don't criticize something you don't understand, Bruce Jenkins. Because, as the old saying goes, when you criticize something you don't understand, you make an ass out of you.
I Can't Believe We Didn't Write More About Bill Plaschke During the Season
The guy absolutely hates new things. He's doing backflips now that the Dodgers have hired an older baseball man to be their GM.
From prep school to old school, the Dodger focus flips today; smartly and solidly and finally.
You can always count on Plaschke for a cheap shot at Paul DePodesta, who no longer works for the Dodgers nor has any impact on Bill Plaschke's life at this point.
Did you know he went to HARVARD? What a nerd.
Everyone knows you can't run a baseball team if you went to prep school.
His name is Ned Colletti, and he's an old-time baseball guy, from his affection for snakeskin boots to his love of snake-free clubhouses.
Beautiful turn of phrase. This guy Colletti sounds like a real man. A real man who kills snakes with his bare hands and turns them into a fine pair of boots. A guy like that would never trade away heartandsouloftheteamPaulLoDuca, would he? No.
He even sounds like a baseball man. Ned Colletti. Boy, I like the sound of that.
Since Colletti became the Giants' assistant general manager in 1997, the team has compiled the third best record in baseball with Barry Bonds and a bunch of character guys.
Colletti, 50, loves the character guys.
Me, I'd take Barry Bonds. He's the best baseball player ever. Maybe second, to Babe Ruth.
He helped build a 2002 World Series team with a lineup that featured Benito Santiago batting fifth, David Bell playing third and Shawon Dunston doing whatever.
And Barry Bonds OPS-ing 1.381. He got on base 58.2% of the time that year. And slugged .799. But Shawon Dunston was also there!
Also, is the point of this paragraph that Colletti helped acquire mediocre players like Benito Santiago, David Bell and Shawon Dunston? I would want my GM to get good players. Not impress me by getting to the World Series with players I am shocked to see make it that far.
While the last Dodger regime didn't see the value in Adrian Beltre, Colletti was signing Omar Vizquel.
Adrian Beltre was one of the worst signings of the year, if not the worst. The Mariners paid him $11.4 million to OPS .716. What a bonehead move by the last Dodger regime, letting that guy sign somewhere else for way more than he's worth.
Plus, what does that have to do with Omar Vizquel? By the way, the Giants signed Omar Vizquel, a 38-year-old shortstop, to a 3-year deal worth over $12 million. Let's hope that works out for the man with snakeskin boots.
While the Giants struggled with injuries, their first losing season with Colletti, they were still in the race in the final week, and Matheny and Vizquel won Gold Gloves.
Gold Gloves are the worst award in baseball. Worse than the Rolaids thing.
For years, the Giants have succeeded despite a brooding superstar and a mid-level payroll. Colletti has been in the middle of all of it.
Let me replace some words in that first sentence to make it accurate:
For years, the Giants have succeeded because they had the best player of the last twenty years, and possibly the best player ever.
