FIRE JOE MORGAN

FIRE JOE MORGAN

Where Bad Sports Journalism Came To Die

FJM has gone dark for the foreseeable future. Sorry folks. We may post once in a while, but it's pretty much over. You can still e-mail dak, Ken Tremendous, Junior, Matthew Murbles, or Coach.

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Thursday, April 24, 2008

 

Clogging the Bases: Does This Ever Make Sense?

The title of this post isn't a rhetorical question. Objectively speaking, yes, a fast guy is more valuable than a slow guy on the basepaths. So if Xavier Slowplayer and Yadier Speedygas both OBP-ed .315 and slugged .390 and you could reasonably expect them to maintain those rates, I think you could say with a straight face, I'd rather have Speedygas because Slowplayer clogs the bases.

Maybe not the terminology I would use, but the point stands.

The problem is, 99.99463% of the time when writers use "clog the bases" or "clog the basepaths" or some variant thereof, the guy they're accusing of base-clogging is way better at getting on base, hitting home runs (the opposite of base-clogging -- it's base-Drano-ing!), or both. So it makes little to no sense to complain about their lack of speed. It's like grumbling that your awesome Bugatti Veyron has shitty trunk space. It would be nice if the Veyron could fit more than one of those baby-sized Coke cans in its cargo hold, but in the grand scheme of things, it's just not that important.

And now I realize that the whole analogy is completely mangled because the Veyron is fast, and base-cloggers are slow. Avert your eyes from this car crash of a mixed-metaphor clusterfuckfest.

Gwen Knapp has a theory that speed is undervalued in today's game, so the A's should abstain from signing Frank Thomas for the minimum. Too late, of course, but still. She pushed our clog the b-paths button, so here we go:

Sweeney is hitting .309, and he has already become an important clubhouse presence for the A's, much as Thomas was in 2006. Thomas or a hitter of his ilk would add a fear factor to the middle of the lineup, which is currently almost indistinguishable from the top. But Thomas would be an equal threat to clog the basepaths, where the A's move faster and more efficiently than they have in a long time.

Sweeney is off to a good start. OBP-ing .391, slugging .418. But we're talking 55 at bats. Thomas is off to a miserable start -- but in 60 at bats, he's already only four home runs shy of the total number of homers Sweeney hit all of last year, when, for the Royals, Sweeney went for a sweet .260/.315/.404.

Thomas got on base at a .377 clip and slugged .480 while appearing in 155 games. We could go back a year further and see that Sweeney put up a respectable .258/.349/.438 in 2006. But Thomas was a monster who (sort of undeservedly) got MVP votes in 2006, with his .926 OPS and 39 home runs -- for Oakland!

So Ms. Knapp: should we really be fretting about how clogged those bases are when it's pretty clear that Thomas is a way more valuable offensive player? Granted, he's 95 years old, but Sweeney's the one who appears to be in more drastic decline -- he hasn't even played a full season since 2001.

Verdict: I still haven't seen anyone use "clogging up the basepaths" in a way that makes any sort of compelling argument. Aren't you glad you know what I think about this?

Next post will be more shrill and have more jokes about barf and testicles and stuff, I promise.

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posted by Junior  # 2:48 PM
Comments:
In his first plate appearance for the A's Frank Thomas walked and clogged each base on his way to scoring a run.

Thanks, reader Matthew.
 
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Sunday, April 15, 2007

 

Where's My Ladies At?

Here's one. Her name is Gwen Knapp, and I'm guessing she had a deadline, and had nothing to write about, and Googled "Yankees+cliches+team chemistry+true yankee" and cribbed a bunch of other crap to write this:

(starts with a perfectly good analysis of the injuries that have hit the Yankees this season. Then...)

Other teams go through this stuff all the time, piecing together lineups. The A's swear by spare parts. But vulnerability doesn't suit the Yankees, and as a team, they look shockingly fragile.

On Saturday night, they managed to beat the A's 4-3 in 13 innings after losing the night before in 11, partly because Rasner didn't unravel when Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano each committed an error behind him in the first two innings. In the end, the Yankees had four errors and won primarily because of the rookie and the bullpen, the one element of their team that remains overwhelming.

Well, I wouldn't say "overwhelming." Rivera still lurks out in the bullpen like an invincible Panamanian Destructicon, but Farnsworth is a mess, and if you think Myers, Henn, and Bruney are going to stay this good for the whole year you've got another thing coming. (They do have Vizcaino, who was a great addition [9.92 K/game last year] and Bruney looks decent to me, but in the 13th last night he threw a fastball to Bobby Crosby that was so meaty and straight and thigh-high I swear I saw Crosby's eyes actually like toy-train-headlight-style light up before he jumped too early and fouled out to left.)

Anyway, if you ask me, the one element of their team that remains overwhelming would be their offense. It seems to me that Damon-Jeter-Abreu-ARod-Giambi-Posada-Cano is a pretty good 1-7.
I know, I know. I'm crazy.

The scouting reports issued appropriate warnings, but seeing them up close, inning by inning, brings home how reduced they are. The reputedly thin pitching staff is actually emaciated, much like the bench, and the lineup has a greater intimidation factor on paper than in reality.

Well, I know it's early, but in "reality" they have scored the second most runs in baseball so far.

Perhaps watching the Yankees wither in October so often the last few years has stripped away an aura, and the talent hasn't changed that radically. Or maybe it's merely the fact that Hideki Matsui resides on the disabled list. But something is clearly missing from this team.

They're probably a little less intimidating without Sheffield. And Matsui will be back. But isn't what's missing...their pitchers? Mussina/Pavano/Wang/no Clemens? I mean, those people are actually physically missing. No? It's not that? Then what could it possibly be?

Oh. Oh God. No. Please don't...you can't mean...please no dear Jesus...are you going to talk about...?

One of the New York beat writers pointed out that the 2000 team had a relatively underwhelming lineup, and visions of Scott Brosius at third and Ricky Ledee in left came rushing back. Glenallen Hill and Jose Canseco spent time on the roster, too. Of course, that team had Roger Clemens, plus El Duque and the first pinstriped incarnation of Andy Pettitte, on the pitching staff. And in the end, it had a World Series trophy, too.

What is she getting at, you might ask?

She's talking about aura, people. Aura. Mystique. That indefinible je ne sais quoi de sinistre that the magical underachieving Yankees of 1996-2000 had in spades. Think about the improbable run of that team. They were made up entirely of career minor leaguers, rag-tag humps, 42 year-old semi-retired recovering-alcoholic player-coaches, a pretty-boy third baseman (Corbin Bernsen), a young, raw base-stealing phenom with a batting glove obsession, a placekicking horse, Kathy Ireland, that weird quiet kid Jimmy who swore he would never play basketball again, and a simple Iowa farmer who ploughed his field because Ray Liotta/his own dead dad/he himself talked to him in a funny way, and they were all coached by Emilio Estevez. And somehow, someway, they overcame extraordinary odds, came together, and using nothing more than guile, team chemistry, mystique, aura, and togetherness, won four World Series in four of the biggest upsets in the history of professional sports!

(In 2000, by far the worst year in that run, they also had Pettitte, Clemens, El Duque, and 145 IP from Nelson and Rivera at like a 200 ERA+. And Jeter and Bernie, and a catcher who walked 107 times. And a reserve outfielder, David Justice, who in 78 games hit 20 HR and went .305/.391/.585.)

The payroll became more menacing after that, but the trophy has not returned. As the Yankees stocked up on Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Gary Sheffield, et al., they became less potent.

Incorrect. They became far more potent.

In 2000 they won 87 games and got to the WS from a very weak AL East. They scored 871 runs, allowed 814 .

In 2002, the first year with Giambi, they went 103-58. They scored 897 runs, allowed 697.

In 2003, they went 101-61. They scored 877 runs, allowed 716.

In 2004, the first year with Sheffield/ARod, they went 101-61 again, scored 897 runs, allowed 808.

In 2005, 95-67. Scored 886 runs, allowed 789.

In 2006, first year with Damon: 97-65. Scored 930 runs, allowed 767.

So. To sum up. More "potent" pretty much every year since 2000. Just haven't won the WS, due mostly to thinner pitching, better competition, and bad luck (esp. 2001, 2004).

The core of their roster when they won four of five World Series from 1996 to 2000 was homegrown. Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Pettitte all came through the farm system. They didn't have to adapt when they put on pinstripes. They were born to them.

Is there an emoticon for: I Am Barfing? Here, I'll make it up:

;>>>>>>>>>>>>>*&^*&amp;amp;%*&^%&*(^%*(&^%.

The 2001 Diamondbacks, the 1997 Marlins, the 2004 Red Sox...so many examples of teams with few homegrown players. Who cares? It's nice. But it's not necessary.

And this overblown "to the manor born" shit about the Yankees has got to stop. It's fucking ridiculous. They weren't "born" to anything. They were drafted by the Yankees and weren't traded. They were good players because they would have been good players for any team. Derek Jeter was the fucking 6th overall pick in the draft. He was not a scrub who suddenly put on a Yankee uniform and became Superman. Pinstripes do not add Special Powers.

Giambi and Damon, a pair of colorful, irrepressible characters, each shed part of himself to become a Yankee. The transformation went beyond frequent visits to the barber. They are still vital, important players, but they aren't linchpins the way they were in Oakland and Boston. They can't be.

Damon OPS+ 2005 (BOS): 113. (35 2B, 10 HR.)

Damon OPS+ 2006 (NYY): 120. (35 2B, 24 HR.)

Jason Gambi's OPS+ in the four full years he's been a Yankee: 171, 156, 151, 154.

To be fair to Gwen Knapp, Baseball-Reference.com does not keep track of the players' Lynchpin Indexes. But I bet she's right -- they are probably far lower now, maybe as far down as the low 65.00's or maybe even 64.00's...what's that? There is no Lynchpin Index? And the idea of applying the concept of "lynchpin" to a baseball player is confusing and meaningless when evaluating the team's overall performance? Okay. Sorry.

Alex Rodriguez is another story.

Fasten your seatbelts, people. You knew it was coming, didn't you?

The Yankees exiled Alfonso Soriano, a homegrown star, to get him, and he was tagged a soft pretender last year, not a true Yankee.

Gwen Knapp, how do I ridicule you? Let me count the ways.

1. Alphonso Soriano is not a "homegrown" player. He signed with the Yankees as one of those foreign-free-agent deals in 1998.

2. AlSo has a career 114 OPS+. (And $136 million from the Cubs. What idiots.) ARod has a career 146 OPS+. They were both middle infielders. ARod was, and is, one of the very best players in all of baseball. He is going to retire with 900 HR and probably 3-4 MVPs. When they traded for him he was about to his the very sweet-sport prime of his brilliant, Hall of Fame career. (AlSo was also lying about his age before he was traded.) Are you seriously suggesting that trading Soriano for ARod was a bad move?

3. Anyone who signs a contract with the New York Yankees or any of its affiliate minor league teams and receives a check for services rendered from said team is a "true" Yankee.

4. If you read that sentence again: 'The Yankees exiled Alfonso Soriano, a homegrown star, to get him, and he was tagged a soft pretender last year, not a true Yankee" you will note that "he was tagged" is a bit of a confusing, dangling modifier type deal, since one could conclude that the antecedent of "he" is Soriano. I would suggest this rewrite:

"In a stunningly brilliant coup by GM Brian Cashman, the Yankees traded Alfonso Soriano, an overrated star,and a bunch of other garbage, and landed a sure Hall of Famer in Alex Rodriguez. But some Yankee fans did not take to Rodriguez right away, because their brains are stupid, and Rodriguez was soon tagged "not a true Yankee," which is a four-word piece of gibberish used exclusively by asshole-morons."

See how that just flows better?

But he is staggeringly talented, and his powerful start this spring suggests a grit that, if it flourishes, could make the Yankees more intriguing than they've been in a long time.

They are just as intriguing this year as they ever are. They win 97-103 games and make the playoffs. And what was ARod's grit index in 2005, when, and I am going to do one of these newfangled typeface explosions here:

HE WON THE MVP AWARD. IN 2005. ALEX RODRIGUEZ WON THE 2005 A.L. MVP AWARD FOR BEING THE BEST BASEBALL PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE.

(Side-note: In the time it has taken me to write this, Darin Erstad has struck out twice, and is now hitting .189 with a .532 OPS.)

When the Yankees lost the bidding for Dice-K last winter, the Boston victory called to mind New England's gloom four years ago, when the Yankees snared another pitcher from the international market, Jose Contreras. That did nothing for New York. The following year, A-Rod veered away from Fenway at the last minute and ended up in the Bronx -- another giant transaction that didn't look so big on the field.

Except in 2005, when he won the A.L. MVP Award. Although to be fair, he has never won the...what's it called? Shoot. I forgot. What's that award called that is given to the player who is even better than the player who gets the MVP award? Oh wait -- that's right -- there fucking isn't one.

Now, they're reduced, scraping by, and not terribly scary. That's the best route to a fairy-tale ending.

Oh, those loveable little scrappy non-intimidating Yankees. They're just going out there every day and winging it, with nothing more than a $189,639,045 payroll and a dream. You have to admire that.

Erstad just singled. MVP! MVP! MVP!

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posted by Anonymous  # 1:33 PM
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But he is staggeringly talented, and his powerful start this spring suggests a grit that, if it flourishes, could make the Yankees more intriguing than they've been in a long time.

"Suggests a grit" that "flourishes"? That is a weird way to talk about grit. I imagine flourishing grit is sort of the same process you use to bloom yeast -- put the grit in some water, let the grit do its thing.

Grit is like midichlorians.
 
A pretty kick-assedly scathing e-mail from Rick:

At the end of the season, when they announce the awards – or even before then, when they’re just discussing it -- can we remind you how you explained here that winning MVP = best player in the league?

Nicely done. Got a little excited in my criticism, and our loyal readers call my shit to the table.

The fact remains, however, that although the MVP award is frequently not given to the actual best player in the league. (See Vaughn, Mo.) However, it is rarely given to a bad player.

Anyway, mea culpa.
 
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Thursday, January 11, 2007

 

Unfair Juxtaposition of the Day

Gwen Knapp has a ballot for the Baseball Hall of Fame. Gwen Knapp did not vote for Mark McGwire in the latest Hall of Fame election, but she did vote for Ken Caminiti. Gwen Knapp's latest column is entitled Morals should be a factor in voting for Hall of Fame.

Gwen Knapp, meet Ty Cobb's Wikipedia page. Specifically, thes two lines.:

Cobb once slapped a black elevator operator for being "uppity." When a black night watchman intervened, Cobb pulled out a knife and stabbed him.

Let's put them back to back, just for fun. I inserted a few extra words.

Morals should be a factor in voting for Hall of Fame

Hall of Famer Ty Cobb once slapped a black elevator operator for being "uppity." When a black night watchman intervened, Hall of Famer Ty Cobb pulled out a knife and stabbed him.

---

Yes, I know doing steroids has to do with baseball and stabbing a black night watchman maybe doesn't have as much to do with baseball, but still. He stabbed a guy.

I know "Integrity, sportsmanship, and character" are among the supposed criteria for the Hall, but Ty Cobb stabbed a guy.

Can we get some perspective in here? Gwen?

People who voted for McGwire have a moral code, too, one that reveres what happens on the field regardless of how it happened, and one that equates not receiving the ultimate professional honor with not being allowed to roam free in the world.


Well, no. I'm not saying that. But as many of your more reasonable colleagues -- including Jayson Stark, who ain't perfect -- have argued, we just don't know who did these PEDs. We can assume that McGwire and Sosa did because they were huge and hit a bunch of taters. But Alex Sanchez also did them. He's 5'10", 180. Ryan Franklin did them.

Gwen, hundreds of players did steroids and some probably still do. Are you going to be your own judge, jury, and executioner and just guess who did them over the next twenty years of Hall voting? My guess is yes, you will do this. You are the kind of person who voted for Ken Caminiti as a "symbolic gesture."

They stretch the principle of "innocent until proven guilty'' to "no felony conviction, no foul.''

Mark McGwire was never suspended from baseball for using steroids. You're using the principle of "I retroactively condemn this guy for doing something not against the rules of the game at the time." I'll stick with "innocent until he is caught actually breaking a rule of the game."

Come to think of it, maybe they should referee in the NBA.

Or publish O.J. Simpson's book.


Gwen Knapp is apparently a pseudonym for Wilmer Valderrama, 'cause she just got me like I was "Yo Mamma."

These same people also like to cite statistics without any context. They talk about McGwire's 583 home runs the way Nigel in "This Is Spinal Tap'' brags about the amp that "goes to 11.'' They can't wrap their brains around the idea that the number just might be bogus.

1. Yes, "goes to 11." Hilarious. A clever new spin on a 23-year-old reference. Original, yet familiar.

2. I can wrap my brain around the idea that McGwire used PEDs. But again, do you want to spend the next decade picking and choosing who else did? When Albert Pujols comes up in fifteen years, are you going to demand old urine samples? You should do this. I hear he keeps a gorgeous mahogany cabinet full of them.

3. Don't ever say I cite statistics without context. Mark McGwire had a career OPS+ of one-fucking-sixty-three and a career EqA of .335. He had 109.5 career WARP3. You voted for Dave Parker, whose comparables are 121, .286 (!), and 86.3.

At the same time, McGwire's most ardent supporters don't appear to like the human element of the process at all.

If the "human element" means establishing "hey, who's the best guy because this is clearly the Hall of Being the Best Guy," then no, I don't like that element.

If 583 home runs make McGwire an automatic inductee, then a computer program can do the job, eliminating all those pesky moral guardians.

These moral guardians welcomed with open arms a man who stabbed a black night watchman.

I can build this computer and have it on your doorstep by nightfall.

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posted by Junior  # 11:02 PM
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