FIRE JOE MORGAN: JM scouting report on kelvim escobar


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Sunday, April 24, 2005


JM scouting report on kelvim escobar

live broadcast of angels vs. a's...JM's scouting report on Kelvim Escobar:
1.) not on a strict pitch count
2.) lack of run support may affect performance

>> Remember when scouting reports used to be about what kind of pitches dudes throw? Why doesn't that happen anymore? "Not on a strict pitch count" is helpful to me in zero ways. The point he was making was that Escobar's returning from an injury, but they don't have him on a pitch count. This as helpful as telling me that Kelvim Escobar "does not throw a knuckleball" or, for that matter "is not Chinese."

His point on poor run support...well, I tend to not buy into this sort of thing. But Morgan said that Escobar had very poor run support last year (true), and "every once in a while it seemed to have affected his pitching, like he was trying to be too perfect, trying to pitch a shutout every time he went out there." (Yes, I'm DVRing it.)

Now, first off, why shouldn't a pitcher try to throw a shutout every time? Wouldn't that be a good thing? I know I never played professional baseball like Joe Morgan -- an idiot -- did, but it seems to me like throwing a shutout would be good for your team.

Aside from that, is he even right? Did Kelvim Escobar's lack of run support tend to affect him last year? Before even looking at the numbers, my guess is Joe Morgan only thinks this is the case because he saw that KE had low run support, and probably heard stories as a ballplayer about how pitchers get frustrated by low run support and they thought it affected their performance. Or whatever. Anyway, I decided to do a little research, even though it's not my job to do this (it's Joe Morgan's):

In 16 games last year, Kelvim Escobar's team scored 0-3 runs. His ERA in those games: 4.14 (104.1 IP, 48 ER)
In 17 games last year, KE's team scored 4 or more runs. His ERA in those games: 3.81 (104 IP, 44 ER)

So in games when Escobar had a lack of run support, he let up three tenths of a run more per nine innings. Now, to be honest, I sure was hoping that he would have been better in low run support games, but the point is: is that really a difference worth caring about?

I admit, my science isn't too tight here because I'm including run support gained after Escobar left the game in some instances, but this was the only way to pull it off in under 30 minutes.

Joe Morgan, I hate you.

Also of note: Escobar pitched 208 innings last year -- the entire regular season -- without giving up an unearned run. Then he pitched 3.1 innings in the post season (game 3 of ALDS) and gave up two unearned runs. Meaningless, but weird.

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posted by dak  # 8:14 PM
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