FIRE JOE MORGAN: If Only There Were a Way to Tell Who Had the Best Offensive Year Using Statistics. But There Clearly Is Not.

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Thursday, October 26, 2006

 

If Only There Were a Way to Tell Who Had the Best Offensive Year Using Statistics. But There Clearly Is Not.

So, let's just go ahead and give the Henry Aaron Award for the American League to Derek Jeter. Cool?

No? It isn't cool? Why not?

Exhibits 1-5 of what is like probably 1000 exhibits:

Runs Created, AL, 2006:

1. Ortiz 141.8
2. Sizemore 134.1
3. Jeter 128.2
4. Hafner 124.4
5. Thome 122.8

Not bad. So far, Jeter's a decent choice.

EqA, AL, 2006

1. Hafner .355
2. Ramirez (Bos.) .342
3. Ortiz .334
4. Thome .328
5. Giambi .326
6. Mauer .321
7. Dye .320
8. Jeter .316

Okay…not the best choice anymore. Hafner seems like the best choice so far, maybe. Or Ortiz. But let’s keep going. Because I love Derek Jeter, and I really want to believe that he was the best offensive player in the league this year.

IsoP, AL, 2006

1. Hafner .350
2. Ortiz .349
3. Thome .310
4. Dye .306
5. Giambi .305
Then there's a really long run of dudes who stink, like Kevin Millar and stuff, and then...
50. Pierzynski .141
51. Iguchi .141
52. Jeter .140

Huh. Now I'm definitely iffy on Derek Jeter being the best offensive player in the AL this year. Let's keep going.

SecA, AL, 2006

(This takes into account Jeter's SB, remember)

1. Hafner .570
2. Ortiz .565
3. Giambi .556
4. Thome, .529
5. Ramirez (Bos.) .519
(Then there's a long list of dudes, including Johnny Damon and Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez and, yes, Kevin Millar again, and then we get...)
28. Millar .302
29. Jeter .297

Ugh. This is looking more and more like Derek Jeter didn't deserve this award. Sorry I put in the thing about how Millar was in the long list of dudes who came before Jeter and then also wrote in Millar's place on the list right above Jeter, but I really wanted to hammer home the insane fact that Kevin Millar had a higher SecA than Derek Jeter in 2006.

Well, at least Jeter led the league in OPS. Check that -- he was 15th. Hafner was first.

No matter. I'm sure he was at the very least the best offensive player on his own team. Oops -- hang on. Giambi was way better in every single stat except BA and SB. And ARod was 13th in OPS. (Surprising -- I thought that guy sucked, based on what people who are professional sportswriters have told me.)

Well, okay, fine, whatever -- Jeter was definitely the very very best offensive SS in the AL. Except arguably Carlos Guillen, who had a higher OPS, more HR, more 2B, and more walks, in 80 fewer AB.

But look, everyone -- Jeter was second in VORP in the AL. So he's not a bad choice.

Of course, Hafner was first in VORP in the AL.

Travis Hafner is a better hitter than Derek Jeter. So are lots of other people. Jeter might deserve the MVP, because he put up his very very good stats from the SS position, which makes those stats very very valuable. But the Hank Aaron Award is not the MVP.

So there you have it, folks. Derek Jeter. Winner of the Hank Aaron Award for being the first-or-second-best-hitting SS in the AL, and probably like the third- or fourth-best hitter on his own team.

That's what we give the award out for, correct?

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posted by Ken Tremendous  # 12:14 AM
Comments:
There have been some very angry blog-o-types -- my favorite kind, as I myself am an angry blog-o-type -- who have chastised me for using SecA and IsoP in the same breath as VORP, EqA, etc. Just to clarify: I am not equating these stats. The umbrella stats -- VORP, EqA, etc. -- tell the big picture story, and the smaller, more specific stats -- SecA, OPS, IsoP -- tell the details of the story. And the story is: Travis Hafner -- and probably Ortiz, Thome, and a few other dudes -- all had better offensive years than Derek Jeter.
 
And yes, okay, fine. This:

Winner of the Hank Aaron Award for being the first-or-second-best-hitting SS in the AL, and probably like the third- or fourth-best hitter on his own team.

is an exaggeration. Just having a little fun.

But Giambi had a better year. And ARod (.311 EqA to Jeter's .316) was basically equal.

And Kevin Millar had a higher SecA.
 
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