FIRE JOE MORGAN: Why Not Just Call It "Will This Happen: Yes or No"?


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Wednesday, July 30, 2008


Why Not Just Call It "Will This Happen: Yes or No"?

"Oddsmakers" today on PTI. Stat boy pro tempore Luke Russert throws out the first one: "Chances the Twins take first place tonight in the AL Central."

Okay. The Twinks are 1/2 game out and they're playing the ChiSox, so the question is basically "chances the Twins win tonight." Your pitching matchup is Gavin Floyd vs. Livan Hernandez. For what it's worth, Vegas has the Twins as very slight favorites. Let's see how Tony and Mike break down tonight's game:

Tony: Game's being played in Minnesota.

Mike: Yes.

Tony: They've won two in a row, so they've got momentum.

Mike: Yes.

Tony: They're a pretty amazing team, organizationally, in the sense they got rid of Johan Santana, and still a half game out. I think the Twins are ahead of almost every team in baseball in that regard, so I will go as high as 100%.

Mike: They have to be smarter, Tony; they don't have a trillion dollars to spend like your boys the Yankees and the Sox. They don't have that kind of size market, and they do a great job. They've also had about nine "break points" if you will this year, where they could have gone ahead of the White Sox and they failed in every one of those. They may do it next week.

Tony: So you're going against?

Mike: Tonight, I'm going with the White Sox who blew a four run lead last night -- should've won that game. White Sox win tonight -- not projecting beyond that -- so I'm saying a 0% chance.

I'm not sure exactly what TK is saying. I think he believes that the Twins are ahead of almost every team in baseball in the coveted category "getting rid of Johan Santana." Makes sense, considering the Marlins and Astros also got rid of him -- hey, sometimes you can't beat everyone.

Wilbon likes the ChiSox chances in part because they blew a four run lead last night, but should've won anyway. He is 100% certain that they will win tonight, but steadfastly refuses to make any predictions beyond tonight. Because, really, that would be ridiculous.

The game is called Oddsmakers. This is the one predictive game that makes sense to me: "what are the chances?" It's based on the simple notion that, obviously, we can't know for sure what's going to happen in the sports world, but we can make educated guesses about the likelihood of certain events. These two guys destroy that whole idea in the span of 40 seconds.

I know, I know. It's entertainment. It's designed for one guy to stand on each side of an argument. People say dumb things all the time, and there's no point in picking on them. Yesterday I blamed ourselves for creating this blog, and having to post stuff like this. But you guys continued to read, so today I'm blaming each and every one of you.

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posted by dak  # 6:41 PM
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