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Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn don't have the best batting averages, but Reds manager Dusty Baker doesn't plan on doing anything different with the two sluggers when it comes to filling out a lineup card.
NATIONAL HOLIDAY!
Griffey's .236 average and Dunn's .230 average are the two worst of any active everyday starter. Only part-time catcher Paul Bako's (.213) is lower. But Griffey, the No. 3 hitter, and Dunn, the No. 5 hitter, are leading the way when it comes to on-base percentage, and for that reason, Baker isn't planning any changes.
Baker, long a skeptic of sabermetrics, the study of baseball statistics, began reading a blog called Fire Joe Morgan late Sunday afternoon.
"Those fellas make some good points," Baker said. "They're profane as hell, and they're probably gay, but they make some good points."
That's not what he said. What he said was:
"Their averages are low, but their on-base percentages are still high," Baker said. "Their on-base percentages are higher than some of the guys who are hitting.
I'm afraid. This is some parallel dream world, right? I've just taken salvia and fallen into a utopian fantasyscape populated by black David Dukes, funny Robin Williamses and OBP-loving Dusty Bakers. That is the only explanation.
Why do you love OBP, Dusty? Tell us tell us tell us all of the reasons!
I know they can hit, but it also helps to get on base and put a pitcher in the stretch. That's the thing. Most starters don't like being in the stretch."
Blaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.
I feel sick.
The only...reason...to...get...on base...is...to...put...the pitcher...in the stretch?
?!
!
?
!?
On the list of good things about being on base, the order goes, roughly:
1. You're on base.
2. You didn't make an out.
3. Again, great, hey -- you're on base.
...
...
...
One million, four hundred thousand. The pitcher is in the stretch.
Besides loving OBP, Dusty Baker is also a big fan of the French Laundry.
"It's the most amazing place," said Baker. "What I liked best about it was that they give you a piece of fabric you can use to wipe your mouth, wipe your hands -- whatever you want. They call it a 'napkin.' I highly recommend the French Laundry."
---
ADDENDUM:
I'm actually happy for Dusty. It is a legitimate point to make that pitchers, in general, are a little worse from the stretch. It's just funny that he hates OBP so much that he feels like he has to bring up something relatively insignificant (compared to JUST BEING ON BASE IN THE FIRST PLACE) to justify even talking about it.
Reader Cletus adds:
While I agree that "getting on base" and "not making one or more outs" are by far at the top, putting the pitcher in the stretch is part of the story.
The actual impact is slightly larger, given a runner on first is not a guarantee that the pitcher will go from the stretch (e.g., blowout, LHP with good move, Jack Cust on first, etc.). But even +37 points of OPS is nothing to sneeze at. It's virtually the only aspect of "lineup protection" worth caring about.
Caveat: A little bit of that will be selection bias: Good pitchers will be pitching more often with no one on, thus a mildly disproportionate amount of those 102,842 PA will be against pitchers with low WHIPs.
And another helpful caveat from Ed: Good hitters tend to be clustered together at the top of the lineup. So, for example, your #2 hitter will have a runner on first far more frequently than your #9 hitter.
Of course, I'm talking about the State Farm Home Run Derby and alternative post-grunge southern rockers 3 Doors Down.
Gotcha! It turns out that combination is an unmitigated disaster! I was really talking about:
Here's how it works: I supply the Gallimaufry, you get hammered. Shot clock violation!
Let's kick it off with a tip from reader Zach G., who points us in the direction of CBSSports.com's Scott Miller. Scott has made some interesting choices for his Anti-All Star Team: Shortstop: Jose Reyes, Mets.
He's got talent. He's got speed. He's got pizzazz. He's also got an infuriating case of immaturity.
I'd say he's got talent, speed, pizzazz, and an acute case of the 2nd highest OPS among shortstops. This guy is the opposite of an all-star? Jose Reyes?
Sure, his numbers are respectable. But this guy has the tools to be great. And he won't put out to get there.
Put out? I don't know, maybe it's not so crazy. Maybe Reyes should try letting some 16 year-old dudes feel him up at Siobhan's party next Friday night.
Dude. There's going to be so much Zima.
I was there in Anaheim when he threw a colossal fit on the field when interim manager Jerry Manuel removed him from the game as a precautionary measure to protect a mildly strained hamstring. It was the worst thing I've seen on the field since Jose Guillen threw a similar fit years ago while playing for the Angels.
And, sure, why not. I'll throw down the race card again. Why doesn't wanting to play so bad that he's willing to throw a fit about it garner him "gamer" status? Why are guys like Milton Bradley, Carl Everett, and Jose Reyes all considered "hotheads" or whatever while jerks like Paul O'Neill are applauded for their fiery style?
Speak of the devil...
Right field: Paul O'Neill, Yankees.
Yes, the comeback of the year! Anybody who has seen O'Neill at The Stadium in his broadcasting capacity this summer will tell you the guy looks like he still can play. Certainly, he has a high enough opinion of himself to give it a whirl.
So, one thing that Scott Miller and I have in common with not only each other but also every single person alive on the planet is that we hate Paul O'Neill.
But this is crazyballs. He doesn't play baseball anymore, so why is he on Scott Miller's Anti All-Star list?
The most asinine occurrence of the year came in April, when Yankees fans were giving it to reliever LaTroy Hawkins because he was wearing O'Neill's old No. 21. Nobody had worn it since Paulie, but because Hawkins' first choice was one of a zillion numbers the Yankees had retired, he had to pick another. So he attempted to honor Roberto Clemente ... and Yankees fans reacted as if he had dumped manure during the Pope's visit.
O'Neill, of course, had the perfect venue to make life easier for a new Yankee: the airwaves. He could have stepped up and urged fans to welcome Hawkins. Instead, O'Neill said he found it sort of surprising that someone was wearing his number. Strange to see his old number warming up in the bullpen, O'Neill said.
I feel sick in a way that I never quite have before. I have a headache that feels like it starts in my ears and then goes all the way down my spine, and my stomach feels like it's going to eat itself. It's not because of Scott Miller's writing, but because of the position he's put me in: I now have to defend Paul O'Neill.
O'Neill said that it seemed strange to him to see his old number warming in the bullpen, and for this act alone, Scott Miller is willing to overlook the fact that he doesn't even play baseball anymore and put him on a list of Anti All-Stars. Truly amazing.
Oh, and of course:
Third base: Alex Rodriguez, Yankees.
Let's just keep the 'maufry moving, shall we. Hey -- chug that shit! This is G+L time, remember?
Reader Tristan decided to subject to himself to the horror that is "1st and Ten" this morning. And for making such a decision, he got what he deserved. Garbage...and Nelly:
I have to admit I haven't been watching the whole show, but I flipped to it and saw the guest they have to match wits with Skip today is Nelly. I kept it on to see what he would say, and he actually threw out some decent, stat backed analysis of the Cardinals race to catch the Cubs.
"I think we can catch the Cubs. The point is, I think, will we have enough offense down the stretch to catch the Cubs. I think our pitching is where it is, I think our ERA right now is around 4.18, I think when we won the world series it was around, like, 4.5, so I think right now we can, but we're overachieving..." (A little more talk about picking up a bat to protect Pujols)
Skip's turn to talk (I tivo'd back to get it right):
"I hope you're right because I have been driving your bandwagon since opening day, cause there's something about this club I like, and I can't really do it statistically on paper, but there's some spirit, some character, someTHING going on there. And by the way, Tony LaRussa should be the first half manager of the year in all of baseball..."
Nelly (primary jobs: Rapping, acting)- Knows the Cardinals ERA, doesn't specifically mention Pythag, but I'd like to think that's what he was referring to when he says the Cards are overachieving.
Skip (primary job: sportswriter)- Can't do anything specifically on paper, attributes the Cardinals success to "something" going on there.
I understand tomorrow Woody Paige will be debating T. Pain on the merits of Schilling's case for the HOF.
People. There are seven members of the ESPN staff currently announcing the Home Run Derby. If that's not reason to drink, I don't know what is. (I guess maybe if your wife just left you or something? Seriously, though -- seven people? And one of them is Rick Reilly?)
Finally tonight -- you guessed it. More Adam Dunn bashing! This time reader Derek wants us to join in on the misery of reading John Fay's reporting on the Reds.
Four of their highest-paid, most experienced players are having bad years. Among Griffey, Adam Dunn, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, none is having even a mediocre year.
Forget the other guys -- I don't even care. We all love Adam Dunn here at FJM and we're not afraid to admit it. He gives us the kind of Three True Outcomes boner that's getting harder and harder to find in this post-steroids "emphasis on fundamentals" bullshit era that is so much less exciting and awesome than the days when everyone did a ton of drugs and hit the ball 4,000 feet and you didn't even have to worry about explaining to people about why it's stupid to bunt because it was never even an issue because for crissakes even your catcher could hit 30 home runs a year because he was doing things to his body that were making him better at baseball but of course god forbid people who play baseball should be allowed to do things that make them better at baseball --
Sorry. You're the ones who are supposed to getting drunk. I'm the 'mauf man. Apologies.
Adam Dunn is having a better than mediocre year. You all know this. He is doing the two things that are most important for hitters very well: getting on base (380 OBP) and hitting the ball hard (538 SLG). Unfortunately, John Fey has found someone to agree with him in his assessment that Dunn's year is -- again, remember this -- not just not great, but not even mediocre.
"That's a fair assessment," Baker said. "You pay attention to them because they're big guys. They're the highest-salary guys."
Good job, Dusty.
Our hearts continue to go out to the fine people of Cincinnati, who will have no choice but to drown their sorrows in Graeter's Ice Cream and Skyline Chili until DB steps down. If all four were close to their average big-league numbers, the Reds probably would be right in the thick of the National League Central race.
Adam Dunn, career averages: 247 / 381 / 521
Adam Dunn, 2008: 228 / 380 / 528
Alright. You're drunk. And I've always been a huge Mike Gallego fan, and he's pitching in tonight's derby. So time for me to tune in.
First off, reader Joseph Z. -- just to be sure, reader Joseph M. Z. -- reminds us that Dusty Baker is still a crazy person:
"Junior has given a lot to this game and this city," Baker said. "You go look at his body and his injury list, and he's left a lot of bones, muscles, tendons and ligaments out on that field. You dig up that field, and there's a lot of Junior bones in it."
What a weird fucking way to make a point. You guys, I'm not doing anything tomorrow night. Anybody want to go look at Ken Griffey Junior's body and injury list?
Interesting side note: if you do dig up the Junior bones under the outfield of the Funtimes USA Ballpark, Carl Everett will insist that those bones were merely put there to test us, and that Ken Griffey Jr. has in fact never existed.
Mauf with their heads!
Jeff B., hit my shit:
In case nobody has notified you guys yet, it appears the idea of the "base-clogger" has taken root among the MLB scouting bureau itself. Check out these official scouting reports on a few top prospects in last week's draft: Yonder Alonso; Eric Hosmer; Petey Paramore.
I'm sure there are plenty more, but these are a few among the biggest names in the draft. These reports raise a few questions. What is the cutoff speed between cloggers and non-cloggers? What "instincts" does Alonso have that keep him from being a clogger? Do Hosmer and Paramore have bad instincts on the basepaths? Does Alonso take a running start two seconds before the pitcher delivers? Could the folks at MLB.com really not find any better scouting reports than these to post on the web?
Really, no. They couldn't. It's only the official site of Major League Baseball. I wouldn't worry about it too much.
Several of you have written us about this unholy nightmare of a column from that most preeminent source of revisionist SABR-related material: The Huffington Post.
Wherever Cliff Floyd goes, his teams win. Not only do they win, they turnaround. It's as if before Floyd got there not only weren't they winning but his teams appeared to have little idea how to win...It's not like Floyd carries his teams. He's typically not the best player. It's something about his presence that does it.
We don't think is a joke, but you can never be sure. Dave Hollander says the 2008 Rays, the 2007 Cubs, the 2003 Mets, and the 1997 Marlins all have Cliff Floyd to thank for their success. I'm not exaggerating -- read the article. It's hysterical.
Would it be worth having a discussion with this guy? A discussion that turned into an argument? Almost everyone reading this website thinks the answer is something like "coincidence" or "just because they played for multiple good teams doesn't mean they have the power to lift their teammates' performance any more so than tens of thousands of ballplayers in the history of sport." In the other corner, Dave Hollander thinks Cliff Floyd is a demigod. How do you even start a dialogue?
The piece ends with more nonsense from Rays' skipper Joe Maddon:
Tampa Bay skipper Joe Maddon told MLB.com that Floyd's dramatic homer sent his jubilant Rays rushing onto Tropicana Field, but the celebration didn't erupt until Floyd got to home plate.
"They were waiting on Cliff Floyd ... and that really stood out for me -- what they think of him," Maddon said. "Cliff from the very first day I met him, among the position players, he had that influence."
Following a walk-off tater, when have you ever seen a team "erupt" in celebration before the dude gets to home plate? This article designed to convince me that Cliff Floyd is a special kind of player has only reaffirmed my belief that he is almost exactly like every other baseball player. I hate people.
Finally, Brian R. made a nice point about Jay Bruce, who I was pretty enamored with following his small sample size quote. Lest we get too excited...
Of course, he also said, "There's only one Ken Griffey."
(Yes, I know what he meant, but I still laughed at that.)
Counterpoint from reader Kurt R. on MLB.com's base-clogging scouting reports:
i have to take exception to jeff b taking exception to the base-clogging references in the mlb scouting reports. in those reports, that term is used specifically to refer to those players' base running abilities and not some general indictment of their offensive value. this is way different than dusty baker expressing a preference that his slower players not draw walks or whatever it is that goes thru his addled head. obviously the importance of base running as a skill pales in comparison to actually getting on base to begin with ... but it does matter.
A few of you have written in to nominate Robin Ventura's famous "walk-off grand slam single" as an answer to the "when have you ever seen a team 'erupt'..." question.
With the Reds trailing by one run in the ninth inning Saturday, Adam Dunn's initial intention with runners on first and second and one out was to bunt his teammates into scoring position. After two unsuccessful sacrifice attempts, a frustrated Dunn chose to swing away. Dunn's backup plan sailed 449 feet into the right-field Sun Deck for a three-run walk-off home run...
Adam Dunn, batting seventh, with (I believe) 2 sac bunts in his career, asked to bunt in the bottom of the ninth with Paul Bako and the pitcher's spot behind him.
From Derek, pseudo-visual evidence:
And from Matt, horrifying actual visual evidence:
I mean, given the fact that Dusty tried to make Edwin Encarnacion bunt before his big walk-off blast a while ago, maybe this is some kind of strategy. Maybe Dusty takes these guys who have between zero and two sac bunts in their lives, and makes them try to bunt, and when he takes the bunt sign off they are so relieved they launch walk-off homers.
Thank you to the 100+ Reds fans who confirmed this tragic series of events.
Encarnacion's homer kick-started the Reds' rally against Eric Gagne. Encarnacion is the most volatile player in the Reds' lineup - his early season defensive woes and his slump at the plate have been counter-balanced by a few clutch homers, often in the same game.
Fortunately for him, Reds manager Dusty Baker seems to be more patient with Encarnacion than previous manager Jerry Narron. "I'm happy for him because this guy bleeds internally, big-time," Baker said.
Of all the attributes of gritty players, "hemorrhaging" is rarely given its due. Especially internal hemorrhaging. Dudes who internally hemorrhage...man. Give me 8 guys like that, and a pitcher with anemia, and a couple bench guys with rotaviruses, and a closer with a leaky heart valve, and maybe a LOOGY with Polycythemia vera, and I'll win the division every time.
Epilogue to the Encarnacion / Brantley situation, courtesy of John Fay:
After failing to get down a bunt on three pitches, Encarnacion rocketed one into the left field seats for a three-run, walkoff home run.
Dusty Baker wanted it to happen this way -- really.
"You can't let him swing in that situation," Baker said. "He was struggling. I told (coach Chris Speier), 'I kind of hope he doesn't get it down so (he) can hit a three-run homer, and he hit a three-run homer."
"Being on the other side, he was one of the guys I didn't want to see up there in that situation," Baker said. "He's a clutch man."
so...many...levels of crazy...basepaths...getting clogged...in my brain...
When s is this f'd, I find it's best to simply write down every single thing that's disturbing, so that we all might more easily wrap our heads around the situation.
1) Dusty Baker didn't want EE swinging at all because he was "struggling." 2) Dusty wanted EE bunting, even though (as some astute readers have pointed out) EE has not a single sacrifice hit in over 7 years of playing baseball in the United States. 3) Dusty wanted EE bunting, even though he thinks EE performs well in clutch situations. 4) "clutch man" 5) Dusty wanted EE bunting, even though he believed that if he didn't get the bunt down, he would hit a home run. 6) The Reds hired Dusty Baker to be their Manager. 7) There are still some people in the Queen City who are not sending a handwritten letter every single day to Reds ownership begging for Baker to be fired.
OK, so we all know that clutch doesn't exist, but I was annoyed by Jeff Brantley's comments about Encarnacion not being clutch. Just as an exercise, let's look at Encarnacion's career line:
Career: .273/.349/.451/.800
Runners on: .300/.382/.485/.867
RISP: .319/.408/.512/.920
Let's see... numbers improve with runners on, numbers get even better with RISP.... I don't know about you, but that looks like a "clutchman" to me.
in Cincinnati. On one side: the Dustyites. On the other side: common sense. Articles are being written every day celebrating the folksy wisdom of a man who thinks bases are only good when there's no one standing on them. This is exactly what happened in L.A. when Grady Little was hired -- "He's folksy! He's down-home! He has a drawl!" (one year later) "He kind of stinks!"
If you could fart into a kind of microprocessing funnel, and the funnel poured the fart into a computer, which converted the fart into words, this is what it would look like.
Baker judges by his senses
Knowing what makes his players tick more important than their stats
Dusty Baker can literally smell whether a guy has a couple hits in his bat. And if his bones ache while a starter is warming up, that means 6 2/3, 4H, 1R. Welcome to the age of divining rods and augurs, Cincinnati.
The best baseball managing is done by the seat of your pants, using good, old-fashioned, pre-sabermetric logic.
If I live in Cincinnati, I have just purchased a one-way ticket to Canada, draft-fleeing-style.
That's another reason to like Dusty Baker. (Beyond his knowledge of single-malt Scotches and Van Morrison lyrics, which is merely astounding and downright Renaissance.)
"It doesn't matter to me if a guy gets on base if he can't run. If he can't run he's just clogging up the bases. Also, in an unrelated matter, it's a marvelous night for a moondance." (does a shot of Lagavulin 21)
If Baker manages by a book, it's one inside his head, not one written by Bill James.
Unfortunately, the book inside Dusty's head is "Lightning" by Dean R. Koontz. This will not help him.
The other day, the Reds manager decided he wanted Joey Votto and Adam Dunn to swing their bats more. "I don't like called third strikes," Baker said.
Can we get an Amen?
That's the thing about saberguys. We love called third strikes. I know it's controversial and counterintuitive, but we think batters should take more called third strikes. Statistics clearly show that offenses are best when the hitters take called 3rd strikes at least 16 times per game. That's why sabermetricians generally put on the permanent take sign for the first seven innings. Here's an equation to prove why this is good:
See? Called third strikes are awesome.
It always amuses when fans defend heart-of-the-order hitters by pointing to their on-base percentage. Wow, look at all those walks.
Yes. And then look at the corresponding runs that those walks create. And then look at the wins created by those runs! We are watching successful baseball! This is fun!
Five of the top six teams in walks last year were playoff teams.
Unless they're intentional walks, or the big boppers are being pitched around, walks aren't what you want from players hitting third through sixth. You want them up there smart-hacking.
You want these guys to brain-swing. You want them to think-swipe. You don't want your 3-6-hole hitters to engage in torque ignorance. You want them to cognitive-swivel.
As Baker said: "(Votto) needs to swing more. I'd like to see him more aggressive."
Joey Votto has hit .289/.385/.476 in the minors. He's ranked as one of the top infield prospects in baseball by nearly anyone who ranks top prospects. Here's Dusty's idea: let's change his plate approach.
By-the-book managing is for men who aren't confident in their ability to read players and situations. It's for managers who don't know their players' personalities. It's what you do so you can say later, after it backfires: "Don't blame me. I went by the book."
What you are calling "by the book managing" is often completely thoughtless, ignorance-steeped tradition. 2-1 count with a guy on first? Hit and run. Leadoff guy gets on? Bunt him over. That's by-the-book managing, and it's dumb. What people like Bill James, and Rob Neyer, and BP, and Billy Beane advocate is: research, analysis, thought, science. But fuck that. Let's read some tea leaves.
The best thing about Baker is that from all accounts, it's important to him to know his players individually: what jazzes them, what scares them, the situations that best suit their talents and temperaments. Contrary to the notions of the seamheads and stat freaks, players are not numbers.
Don't use jazz as a verb, please. Also: stat freaks and seam heads hate baseball. They are fucking ASIMO robots who make managerial moves through NASA press releases. Eric Wedge makes his moves from home, via on-line chats. Terry Francona has never met anyone on his 25-man roster. Joe Maddon is a 2.4 gigahertz Linksys router. Manny Acta is actually M.A.N. eACTA, the black-ops code-name for the Mechanized Algorithmic Numerical (internet-ready) Actionable Computation Techno-Automaton. When his "contract" runs out with the Nats he is going to be launched into space. We are weaponizing space. Deal with it, China.
"Managing" means exactly what it says: the ability to manage people. How Baker runs a game strategically is far less important than what he is able to pull from his employees, 162 times a summer.
"How he runs a game strategically" and "what the results are of his moves?" are somehow mutually exclusive things.
Anyone with a laptop can locate the Web site baseball- reference.com and sound like an expert. Anyone with a library card can pick up one of James' mind-numbing baseball "abstracts," in which the author makes the game sound like a first cousin to biomechanical engineering.
Which is why it boggles the mind that some people don't. Especially the ones paid millions of dollars to operate one of 30 several-hundred-million-dollar franchises. And for the record, I'm not trying to sound like an expert. I'm trying to sound like a dude with a computer who can look shit up and point out that Adam Dunn is doing just fine, thank you, and if you start making him swing at pitches he doesn't like, you're going to screw up your team.
It ain't that scientific.
It's not purely scientific. But it goddamn is kind of scientific.
The NFL does the same thing, in a different fashion. To convince you that pro football is actually a 17-week MENSA convention, The League whips out its 800-page playbooks and offers up oh-so-serious coaches who work 20 hours a day and act as if their jobs involve brain surgery and a red telephone.
QB: What play are we running, coach?
Coach: (furious) What "play" are we "running?" This ain't science, you jackass! You, Johnson. Just run down the field, and kind of squiggle around. Henderson? I want you to just groove. Bergleson -- let your soul take over. I want you to feel it. Smithson? Put this welding helmet on and close your eyes. Run wherever you feel like you should run. And Thompson? When the ball is snapped, I want a long primal scream. Don't worry about "blocking" or "patterns" or "execution." This game is about emotion, people.
Assistant Coach: Have you noticed that everyone on this team is named "something-son?"
Coach: You're fired. I don't pay you to think. Now. Soul-Ball Gut Check 34 on 3.
Possibly, it's less complex. Block. Tackle. Win.
If you try to win a modern-day NFL game solely by telling your players to "Block and tackle" you will lose 100-0.
Baseball's cerebral side involves numbers. While I believe in baseball-card wisdom - you are who the back of your card says you are - it's just a little piece of the whole. When some of us (OK, me mostly) advocated dealing, say, Votto and Homer Bailey for Oakland pitcher Joe Blanton, the Statboys came out flame-throwing numbers:
Homer Bailey: 21, awesome in the minors. Walks too many guys but gave up 6.55 H/9IP at AAA. Votto: potential stud at 1st for years. Blanton: pretty good 27 year-old pitcher, maybe hitting his stride. Also arb-eligible for the next 3 years, and will get very expensive. Chances that Bailey outpitches him in 2009 for 1/20 the price? Decent. This would be a trade you make at the deadline if you are one starter away from the World Series, not if you're Cincy and you have to basically start from the ground-up. Also, if you want to trade Bailey and Votto, you can do a whole lot better than Joe Blanton, I think.
Blanton's a creation of his spacious home ballpark! Look at his ERA, home and away! Blanton's a flyball pitcher! Check out his ratio of groundballs to flies!
This is fucking fantastic. These are his examples of ridiculous, opaque, arcane stat-geek numbers. Home/Away ERA. GB/FB ratio. If you think that's complicated, you are a simpleton of the highest order.
If you shot back that Blanton has won 42 times in the last three years - and that he went 7-5 at home last year and 7-5 on the road - if you suggested that no number matters but Games Won, you were dismissed as an illiterate.
Not an illiterate. I believe you can read. But maybe an ignoramus? Yes, let's go with ignoramus.
(Actually, maybe Blanton won as many on the road as at home, even with a much higher road ERA, because Oakland's hitters worked under the same conditions as their pitcher. Allow more runs, score more runs. And factually, flyball man Blanton gave up only 16 home runs in 230 innings last year. But never mind.)
First of all, if he actually is worse on the road, it would be a dumb idea to make him pitch 16 times a year in Cincinnati, where the RF fence is 115 feet from the plate. However, Blanton did have a very good year in 2007. He may be entering his prime. His HR rate and BB both dipped last year. Good work using numbers to show that.
Numbers are fun to look at but dangerous to dwell on.
But...didn't...you...just...
Baker understands this. If Dunn walks 30 fewer times this year, he'll drive in 15 more runs. His on-base percentage will dip. Oh, no.
If Dunn walks 30 fewer times, he'll drive in 15 more runs. This is thanks to the scientifically proven formula: RBI = (this is nonsense) (I made it all up).
If Votto takes fewer first-pitch strikes, his run production will improve.
You're right. He should hit more 1st-pitch home runs. Why doesn't anyone besides Dusty Baker and Paul Daugherty think home runs are better than walks?
And so on. Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.
This...this is the dumbest thing I have ever read.
Here's a stat: U.S. Presidents: All Americans Besides Paul Daugherty: 43. Paul Daugherty: 0. Suck on that, Paul Daugherty! You've never won the Presidency. What a jerk!
At bats are complicated things. The best result of an AB is a home run. The worst is an out that advances no runners. (Or a triple play, I guess, but you get the idea.) In between are several thousand other possibilities. A walk is a successful AB no matter how you slice it. Patient hitters are good hitters, by and large, who help their teams a great deal more than impatient hitters, and the more a guy is patient, the more he will swing at a good pitch instead of any pitch, which increases the chances he will succeed.
Now if you'll excuse me, I have to run a level-5 diagnostic on the M.A.N. eACTA. His verillion modulator is on the fritz.
Apparently Mr. Daugherty is not just a complete bonehead when it comes to baseball. Bill points us to this section of his blog, written during Ohio's recent snowstorm:
As for the Global Warming freaks... please deliver my pizza to the radio station at 9 tonight when, if warnings of the apocalypse hold, I will be spending the night, globally warmed by 10 inches of snow. I will be hungry. When you arrive, you can explain to me why it's called Green-land, what's bad about longer growing seasons in northern climates and open shipping lanes where there used to be impassable ice. Because I am the tiniest bit skeptical about melting icecaps, or at least about the catastrophically rising ocean levels guaranteed to drown us all, please show me the data indicating rising water levels in, say, New York harbor, or on the beaches in, I dunno, South Carolina. Then prove to me, beyond reasonable doubt, how all of it owes to greenhouse gases and such.
That, my friends, is the very definition of ignorance.
I'm late posting this, but here it is, from Russell:
Some actual math about Adam Dunn. Let's assume that he walks 30 fewer times this year. It's going to mess with his approach and he'll probably start swinging at pitches with which he doesn't feel comfortable, but let's just go against logic and assume that it won't affect what he normally does. Let's re-apportion those 30 PA according to what he did last year when he wasn't walking and see if we can get 15 RBI out of that.
First off, he walked 16.2% of the time, so we need to look at the other 85.8% of his PA. In 36.8% of those non-walk PA, he struck out, so 11 more strikeouts. That leaves 19 more PA where he didn't walk or strike out, but apparently put the ball into play. His BABIP last year was .309, which means that he would record a hit in about 6 of those remaining PA.
About 28.9% of Dunn's hits went for home runs last year, so let's be generous and say that of those six hits, two of them would be HR. Dunn would get 2 RBI from those HR, so he needs 13 more RBI to reach the 15 that Mr. Daugherty figured he would get. He's got 6 hits in which to do this (laying aside sac flies or the occasional grounder the scores a run... hell let's give him one of those... he needs 12 RBI in those six hits.) Adam Dunn would have to constantly be coming to the plate with two runners on base (at least when he gets his hits) and always drive them in.
Impossible? No. Likely? No.
And y'know, the best thing to do with a guy who averages 7.85 RC per 27 outs is to tell him to stop doing what he's been doing.
Being a dad is crazy! Oh my God, it's so insane. If you don't have kids, you just have no idea what it's like. Kids are nuts. I'd like to share just a few little observations I have to make about being a dad.
Baker has repeatedly talked about the desire to have a do-it-all leadoff hitter with speed.
Dusty is the only one who wants this?
What kinds of hitters is he looking for further down the lineup? Does he want guys with lofty on-base percentages? The answer will likely not sit well with fans of the book "Moneyball," because Baker said he believes the OBP statistic is overvalued.
I can't wait for what comes next. This is the single most exciting thing that has happened to me in the past week. "I'm big on driving in runs and scoring runs," Baker said.
Huh. Seems like an odd way to go about winning baseball games, but okay. I mean, I would challenge your "driving in runs/scoring runs" strategy as outdated. Have you tried the modern and new methodology of: philosophizing about runs, and then sort of "surrounding" the runs with positively-charged ions, and then "inducing" runs with a combination of computer-aided design and game theory-based modeling?
Despair, Cincy fans. Your manager is giving an interview, and feels the need to announce that he is "big" on "driving in runs" and also "scoring runs." The man is a dummkopf.
"Guys in the middle should score about close to equal to what they drive in.
"About close to equal" is the set. Here's the spike:
On-base percentage, that's fine and dandy. But a lot of times guys get so much into on-base percentage that they cease to swing. It's becoming a little bit out of control.
And if they swing...and get on base...they have increased their...what, Dusty? Their...what? Their "On-blank-blank." Sound it out. Their "On-blank-Percentage." You can do it: their...okay. Forget it.
And yes, I know what he is saying. He is saying that he wants his guys to swing and get hits to "drive runners in," because he is "big" on that. But patient hitters, who walk a lot, are often better hitters, who hit better when they swing than impatient hitters, because they swing at better pitches. Forcing patient hitters to swing more = a bad idea.
Oh -- before, when I said that was the spike? I was wrong. Here's the spike. And it's a doozy.
"What you do is run the pitcher's count up, that helps," Baker said. "You put him in the stretch, that helps.
Correct. Correct. Now undermine it.
But your job in the middle is to either score them or drive them in. The name of the game is scoring runs. Sometimes, you get so caught up in on-base percentage that you're clogging up the bases."
Blammo!
Kerpow!
Bler-mump!
Sowpods!
I really can't understand how he can be "big" on scoring runs and driving in runs, but down on "clogging up the bases" with men who will (a) score the runs by (b) providing an opportunity for others to drive them in. You cannot score runs any other way. Unlessssssss -- I got it. He wants solo home run experts. That's it. He wants really fast runners, who will hit solo home runs and then run really fast around the bases. Okay. My apologies.
Have you ever noticed how often Joe uses the word "but" in his chats? A lot.
Get out your [sic]s, fire up the WTF?! machine and say your 2007 goodbyes, people.
Joe Morgan: We normally, it's not always the best team that wins the World Series, but the team that's playing the best at that time. But that clearly was not the case this year. Not only is Boston the best team, but it was also playing the best.
Ken Tremendous: WTF?
Mike (Boston): Hey Joe, which Red Sox team do you think was better 2004 or 2007?
Joe Morgan: Well, I think the '07 is better. When you go down each player, trying to pitch to them, this team is far more difficult to pitch to. Each and every player is a different type of hitter. That makes it more difficult for the pitcher to pitch to them. They all contribute something to the team. I think this team is much better.
2004 Red Sox: 98 wins, .832 team OPS (which I believe was an all-time record; or maybe it was just a record SLG)
2007 Red Sox: 96 wins, .806 team OPS
The 2007 team may have been better, but it wasn't because they were a better hitting team. Researching this took me 25 seconds.
Brad(NM): Good morning Joe. Do you believe the Yankees hired the right man for the job? Do you think they showed a lack of loyalty to Mattingly?
Joe Morgan: I don't know whether Girardi is the right guy or not, because I don't know much about him as a manager. I definitely thought Don Mattingly was going to get the job. I don't know if it was a lack of loyalty, because in their mind, Girardi was a Yankee too.
KT: Don't know, don't know, don't know. Well done. I like that "in their mind" Girardi was a Yankee. Not "in light of the fact that he played for the Yankees" Girardi is a Yankee.
Bill (Chicago): Who would you have given the MVP to? Mike Lowell was obviously deserving, but so was Papelbon, Ellsbury, Beckett, Pedroia etc.
Joe Morgan: Well, I voted for Mike Lowell. I had a vote. But I also said on my broadcast that they had several players who were MVPs. But I thought Lowell stood out more because he had more clutch hits. His hits had more meaning than the others' on a consistent basis. I thought Pedroia would have won if he had a better Game 4, but he didn't.
KT: Joe and "Consistent" -- Consistently Wonderful. (Three "but"s in this answer, too.) I think I would've given it to Lowell too, then Papelbon, then Ellsbury. Fun Fact: the Red Sox' team OPS for the World Series was .936!
Jim (NYC): Do you feel it will be tough for the Rockies to concetrate
KT: Thank you, Jim.
next year after the run they had? They weren't exactly consistent
And again.
this season...running hot and cold.
Joe Morgan: Well, if you're asking if I think they'll win the division next year, I say no. Your assessment is right on the mark. No one even noticed them going into the last month of the season. Then all of a sudden they got hot. They were under .500. But they got hot and won the wild card. But I do think they were hurt by the layoff. But even without the layoff, they were not nearly as good a team as Boston.
I'm no 2nd grade-level expository writing instructor, but I think that the last three sentences are poorly composed. But can you figure out what I mean? But I bet you can, but if you look hard. But what if you can't? But I bet you can.
Bill (PA): John Farrell is interviewing with the Pirates this week. How do you think he will fare as a manager? Is he the right man for the Bucos?
Joe Morgan: It's the same way I answered about Girardi. I do not know enough about him to say if he'll be a good manager or not. I really can't give an honest opinion there, because I don't know him well enough.
KT: Why should you? It's not like he's a high-profile assistant coach on the World Series champion. Nor is it like you're an A-team baseball analyst on the #1 baseball network, who just covered the World Series, which just featured the team he coaches for. Nothing to see here. Move along, people. Just keep walking. Move! I said move! Move dammit! (sprays tear gas on people gawking at Joe's ignorance of the sport he covers) See? Now look what I had to do. I didn't want to do that, but you refused to be reasonable. Now clean yourselves up.
Cc (Atlanta): Renteria to the Tigers... ever heard of the young guys the Braves got back? It's an obvious salary dump but his replcement, Yunel Escobar, is a rising star.
Joe Morgan: I'm a big fan of Renteria. He's one of the most underrated clutch hitters in the game. I'm a big fan of his. The Braves want to play Escobar. They think he can be a good shortstop. They can save money. That's what they're doing. But I'm a big Renteria fan. I think he'll help the Tigers. He'll make them a stronger lineup. I like the move for the Tigers.
KT: Apparently, Joe stepped out of the room for a moment, and retarded Raymond Carver took over the chat. Here is a poem I wrote using that previous paragraph's worth of sentences.
I'm a big fan of Renteria. I think he'll help the Tigers. I'm a big fan of his. I like the move for the Tigers. But I'm a big Renteria fan. He's one of the most underrated clutch hitters in the game. He'll make them a stronger lineup. I'm a big fan of his.
The Braves want to play Escobar. They think he can be a good shortstop. They can save money. That's what they're doing.
(I reused one sentence to make the stanzas even.)
Jimmy (Springer nm): Will the Yankees be in contention next year with Girardi or will it be a couple of years
Joe Morgan: Well, the problem in baseball is, even if you say you're going to rebuild and be back in a couple of years, there's no guarantee that they will be back.
Yes there is. It is called: unlimited resources. There is no "rebuilding." They are losing ARod and maybe Pettitte/Posada, but chances are they re-sign Rivera, and for all we know they're working on a deal for Santana and cannot extend him with the money they're saving elsewhere. They are in contention right now.
If they lose, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, they won't be in the playoffs next year. They do have some young pitchers that they need to develop, but at the same time your veterans are getting older.
Players aging over time: a problem unique to the Yankees, apparently.
brett (philly): what can the phillies do to make the next step and be a true contender?
Joe Morgan: I think the Phillies are a true contender already. [...] The Reds, under Dusty Baker, are in a similar situation in that the ballpark plays so small, it's hard to have a good pitching staff. The Reds are going to have to outscore opponents.
Having to outscore opponents to win: a problem unique to the Reds, apparently.
Jeff (Iowa): What do you think of the Reds hiring Dusty Baker?
Joe Morgan: Well, Dusty is a proven winner.
"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." He brings that status with him - just like Torre takes with him to the Dodgers, if he goes there. But I do think it's difficult to win in a ballpark that plays so small, unless you have the most talented players in the game. I think Dusty's a great manager
"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."
and he will do a good job there. The Reds will be a better team than last year.
Well, they were 72-90, and their ExWL was 74-88. It's entirely possible they'll be better next year without anything changing at all. However. If you're telling me that the Reds will be better because Dusty Baker is their manager, then I disrespectfully disagree.
Glenn clarifies the Red Sox' Team OPS record-setting, which I vaguely remembered but was too lazy to look up:
It appears it was the 2003 Red Sox who set the all-time team slugging record (.491), along with an .851 team OPS - both numbers outpacing the champs' totals from a year later. The '04 team's pitching does appear to have been markedly better (116 ERA+ and 1.29 WHIP, compared to 104/1.36 the year prior), and the '07 team's better still (123/1.27).
I'm guessing this is the last one. If so, it was a helluva ride. Can you believe it was just a few short months ago that we first had a 2007 JoeChat? Best of luck, seniors!
Joe Morgan: It was a very good ALCS going seven games, however, there were not many close games besides the 4-2 Indians win.
Ken Tremendous: How about Game 2, that went 11 innings? The final was not close, but the game was won in extra innings. How about Game 7, wherein the Sox were barely hanging on to a 3-2 lead in the 7th when Kenny Lofton was inexplicably held up at 3rd on a ball Manny Ramirez was probably planning to lob back to second? That was a close game. Game Five was 2-1 through six. So that's four out of seven games I would describe as "close," or at least "tense."
The one thing I learned is that Boston is a better team than they appeared to be when the series first started.
You mean, better than a team that had co-led the majors in wins and swept the ALDS and won Game 1 10-3? What are you even talking about?
Trent (Cleveland): I must admit I am disappointed with the Indians ultimate demise, how can I not be with a 3-1 lead in the ALCS, but what do you forsee over the next few seasons for the tribe? I think we are in great shape.
Joe Morgan: Well anytime you get to Game 7 of the ALCS you are in good shape, and they learned a lot from this series. But you have to rememeber, baseball is a sport that you cannnot just say wait till next year, because that can become the battle cry for years. But I think Cleveland is a very good team, and along with Boston one of the top 2 teams in the AL.
KT: "Rememeber" is the new "concetrate." He makes that typo a lot. Also, your hard-earned entertainment dollars are helping to pay the salary of a man who declares the ALCS runner-up as "one of the top 2 teams in the AL."
Jason (DC): Joe -- can the Rockies overcome the 8 day layoff (and the snow)? Seems like it could be a challenge to bring the proper concetration and consistency, after their break.
KT: Ahhhh, Jason. Concetration and consistency. Bless you.
Joe Morgan: The long layoff is a big challenge which they could not control. What they need is for two or three guys to step up in Boston to help the team get their timing back. It is a huge challenge, however, especially with what a roll they were on.
I would like a video demonstration of the proper way to "step up in order to help one's team get its timing back." What would that entail, I wonder? What kind of non-baseball-related sorcery is this? What kind of b'witchèd blacke magik must one conjure? Or are you just saying: "Some guys need to hit well?" In which case: why didn't you just say that?
Kyle (NJ): Hey Joe, can the Brewers win the Central next year?
Joe Morgan: Well they could have wonn it this year! But the Brewers played as poorly as the Cubs and did not make it. I think they can win it next year, but they need to be more consistent.
Bingo bango bongo! Congratulations, everyone. This is the fifty millionth use of "consistent" in JoeChat history. Everyone on this blog gets a free dozen donuts, compliments of our friends at Dunkin' Donuts.
That horrible stretch this season cost them the division. But I do expect them to be one of the main challengers. But with Baker in Cincinnati I expect the Reds to be in the mix as well.
Yes. The 72-90 Reds will be much better next year...because Dusty Baker is managing them. Dusty Baker. Dusty Baker is managing them now, so they will be better. Dusty. Baker.
SprungOnSports (Long Island): Can the Rockies stop Josh Beckett? What do the hitters have to do to get to a player that has been lights out this postseason?
Joe Morgan: Well the Rockies have more good hitters/consistent hitters than Cleveland. I think the Rockies lineup will be a little tougher for Beckett, but he is and ace and can beat anyone.
KT: 50,000,001 for "consistent." And I guess "what they have to do" to get to Beckett is: "...?"
Aaron (houston): What do the 'stros need to do to get back on track next year?
Joe Morgan: Well they need offense. Their offense made the pitching look worse than it was. They had no consistency in that lineup outside of Lee.
50,000,002.
They need to be able to score runs consistently.
50,000,003. This is exciting!
Hugh (WPB, Florida): How exciting is Dustin Pedroia?? Do you see a little bit of yourself in the way he plays? I think he can be a very consistent hitter for years to come.
KT: Sorry, Hugh. This nice bit of JoeBaiting comes too late. He's already consistency'd out.
Jason (DC): Joe -- with a fully healed Gary Sheffield and all the other big guns coming back, will Detroit dethrone Cleveland in the AL Central next year?
KT: Gary Sheffield, who makes Joe Morgan's heart race like no other, is going to be 39 next year. He's coming off his worst season in years -- possibly ever -- one that was filled with injuries. One might -- were one thinking clearly -- be tempted to suggest that the key to the AL Central race next year (a race that features Carmona, Sabathia, Verlander, Bonderman, Sizemore, Martinez, Polanco, Zumaya, Betancourt, Hafner, Guillen, et al.) does not really depend all that much on Gary Sheffield and his 12.9 VORP.
Joe Morgan: It is hard to say, but Detroit with Sheffield is a much better team. I think that is a very good question, but you never know in basbeall. A team may emerge out of nowhere. But yes, Detroit and Cleveland at the moment have to be the favorites if everyone is healthy.
One might also be tempted, were one Joe Morgan to write: "Hard to say...good question...you never know...some other team might also be good...but given certain conditions..."
Ed (Boston): Joe what did you think of the Red Sox coming back from a 3-1 defecit?
Joe Morgan: It was not as dramatic as the 3-0 comaeback against the Yankees. But when I was in Boston, earlier there was a feeling amongst the fans that Boston would win. That feeling was felt by the players as well. They beat Sabbathia and Carmona to get back, and when you beat two aces like that it says a lot about your team. Beckett beat Sabathia on his own.
Josh Beckett's hitting stats against C.C. Sabathia in Game Five: 10-29, 2 BB, 1 HR. Hell of an effort at the plate from Josh Beckett.
Beckett had nothing to do with beating Sabathia. He beat the other guys on the team. That is how baseball works.
Craig (Richmond): Joe what does Cleveland need in order to take them to that next level, ie and World Series birth?
Joe Morgan: They were one game from that next level, so they do not need to do too much... They do not need to make a lot of moves, they just need to learn how to close out a series.
KT: There's a class you can take for that at the Y, I think. Should be no problem. I might also recommend trying to trade for another starter, maybe, or looking to replace Kenny Lofton, or moving Betancourt to the closer/relief ace role and picking up or developing another reliever. But definitely the most important thing is to take that class on how to close out a series. Because most people just think you need to win the fourth game, but there's a lot more to it than that, and this class will teach you everything. It's like $349/person but it's totally worth it.
Joe Morgan: I have to run. But enjoy the Game1!
KT: Those of you who spend a lot of time on the internet know that it is very common for excited people accidentally to type the numeral 1 when ending a sentence, often mixed in with exclamation points. (Ex. "OMG Zac Efron is the dreamiest!!1!!!1!!!!!") My question is: was Joe typing "Enjoy the Game" and accidentally typed the "1" as if he were a young girl talking about Zac Efron, or did he write "Enjoy the Game 1!" and forget to leave a space?
This is a question I will spend all day trying to figure out.
John (New York, NY): Do you agree with other analysts that Derek Jeter's defense is overrated? With the number of errors he's made so far this year, it seems like everyone's jumping off the bandwagon.
Joe Morgan: I would not put myself in that group.
Ken Tremendous: Explain why.
First off, as a middle infielder, shortstop is the most difficult position to play on the field.
KT: I agree.
Any lapse of concentration or injury can throw you off.
KT: Same can be said of all positions, but I'm still with you.
I think with Jeter, he's been losing his concentration recently, but I expect him to get out of it. Middle infield demands that you have your highest confidence at all times, so a few errors can throw you off.
KT: It's a confidence problem? For Derek Jeter? Are you sure?
I won't say someone's overrated because I don't see him every day.
KT: All-time low for the Joe Morgan "I don't see him every day so I can't comment" thing. How many times have you seen Jeter in your life, Joe? A hundred? Two hundred? And you still can't comment on whether you think he's overrated? This is insane. If you are telling me you can't make a comment on Derek Jeter because you haven't seen him play enough, you are officially saying that you can never render your opinion on anything, ever.
Obviously, if he's won 3 consecutive Gold Gloves, he has to be pretty good.
KT: Opposite of true.
Rick in DC:Mr. Morgan: The Tigers are pitching well thus far, but all we hear about are the arms on the Red Sox. Do you think these teams will meet in the ALCS this year?
Joe Morgan: I actually feel like Detroit might win the American League again. Obviously it's early, so I can't make a real prediction.
KT: People make predictions all the time. Before seasons even start. Can you ever just offer an opinion without qualifying it? What is the point of constantly saying you can't give your opinion? Why do you have this job?
So far, with Boston, Schilling has bounced back, Beckett is capable but hasn't reach his full potential, and Dice-K looks like a stud. You can't say they have a great staff just yet; they've certainly made some good starts. The Tigers have more room for improvement than the Red Sox, as Schilling and Wakefield aren't getting any better. I still think the Tigers will prevail in the end.
KT: See? Was that so hard?
Tony (Weymouth MA):With all of the injuries to the Yankees starting rotation, will Roger Clemens lean to signing with the Red Sox as the best chance to win it all one last time? Does he stay in Houston or retire?
Joe Morgan: I know Roger pretty well, but I'm not going to predict what he will do.
KT: Oh my God.
Here's a play I just wrote:
(Scene: Joe is the blind Greek seer Tiresias. Oedipus approaches.)
Oedipus: Tiresias, priest of Zeus. I come to you to gain knowledge of the slaying of King Laius. Joe Tiresias: Well, I knew Laius pretty well, but I don't want to say I know who killed him. Oedipus: But your visions are never wrong, great seer. You see all. Joe Tiresias: I have seen a lot of things happen, yes. I have been a seer for a long time, so don't tell me I don't know what's gonna happen in Greece. Oedipus: (confused) ...I wasn't saying that. I am saying the opposite of that. I am asking you for your help in learning the identity of the slayer of King Laius. Joe Tiresias: I knew Laius. I watched him be King for a long time. He was a great veteran King. Oedipus: ...What? Joe Tiresias: If you're saying that he is not as good a King as you, I wouldn't say that. You just started as King, and he did it for a lot of years. He knew how to rule. Oedipus: ...Yikes. Okay. Listen. I want you to use your wisdom and sight and the power of the Gods to tell me who killed him. Joe Tiresias: Well, I didn't watch him rule every day, so I don't want to comment. I don't want to say one way or the other. Oedipus: (Blinds self out of frustration)
Personally, I believe the only place Roger Clemens can play is Houston, because Roger doesn't want to travel, and Houston is the only team of the three to allow him to do what he's doing. Neither the Yankees or Red Sox can allow him to do that. If he pitches again, as an analyst, I feel he will pitch with Houston.
KT: And again, he ends up answering the question after saying that he can't answer the question.
Shawn in Philly: Do you really believe the lack of African-American players in the game is a "crisis"? Does it matter how many there are in the league as long as the opportunity is there? To me, the real problem is the lack of African-Americans in front office positions.
Joe Morgan: Of all the people I've listened to about this percentage, you have the right understanding. I cannot find it in my heart to blame MLB for the percentages. The opportunity is there. Players are making a choice to go to the NBA or the NFL. If baseball wants to try to help persuade them to go that way, that's great, but it's not baseball's fault. Football is 70 percent African-American and basketball is 80 percent African-American. All those athletes are not playing baseball. I agree fully that the problem is in the front office and in the management, but if you do not have African-American players, where are the managers going to come from? They have brought people into the front office who have graduated from Harvard, but not African-Americans who have graduated from Harvard. You have guys who get two, three chances, but a guy like Cito Gaston, Dusty Baker, Don Baylor, Lloyd McClendon, Davey Lopes, Jerry Manuel who don't get as many chances. Yet a aguy like Phil Garner, who lost in Milwaukee and Detroit, found a good team in Houston. Not to pick on him, but the opportunity isn't there. Only Frank Robinson has managed more than three different teams; Cleveland, San Francisco, Baltimore, and Washington. You have a very good understanding of what I see as the problem.
KT: All right, look. Dabbling in racial discussions is always a dangerous thing. And I fully agree that all different types of people should have the opportunities to manage MLB teams, and I think it's probably true that MLB, like the NFL and the NBA, should have more minority managers and front-office types -- especially African-Americans.
But. Look at that list of guys who, Joe is insinuating, didn't get a fair shake. Cito Gaston won two WS, then went 56-88, 74-88, 72-85, and was fired. I'll quote from his Wikipedia page here...
He had failed to lead the team to a winning record since 1993 and seemed uninterested in keeping his position. Gaston forced [GM Gord] Ash's hand by telling his boss that he was taking a vacation at season's end and would not be around for the usual post season evaluation process, thus ending his Jays managing career in an undignified fashion. He was replaced by then-pitching coach Mel Queen on an interim basis for the last week of the 1997 season. Gaston rejoined the team as a hitting coach after the 1999 season but was not retained after a disappointing 2001 campaign and the sale of the franchise to Rogers Communications. In 2002, he was hired by the Jays for a third time, as special assistant to president and chief executive officer Paul Godfrey.
Given Gaston's impressive record and World Series titles, it is somewhat surprising that he never managed again in the Major Leagues. Nevertheless, Gaston was a final candidate for the Detroit Tigers manager's job in the 1999-2000 season and was the runner-up to in the Chicago White Sox manager position in the 2003-4 off season. Sox GM Kenny Williams, a former Blue Jays player, had Gaston as one of two finalists for the job but decided to hire Ozzie Guillen. Gaston had several offers to rejoin major league teams as a hitting instructor...but declined offers. His length of unemployment now makes it unlikely he will return to the major leagues as a manager.
So...it was African-American GM Kenny Williams who hired Ozzie Guillen -- a minority candidate -- over Gaston. Just sayin'.
And Lopes, well, he has a career record of 144-195. (Also, I don't believe he is African-American. Am I wrong?) Dusty Baker is the man who thinks that you shouldn't "clog up the bases." He probably ended the careers of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood by having them throw like 150 pitches a game even after DL trips. He stinks on ice. Don Baylor won more than 83 games once in nine years. Lloyd McClendon was 336-446 in five years. Jerry Manuel was better (500-471), and is currently coaching for the (African-American-coached) Mets, I think, and he's only 53. He'll get another chance.
A lot of these guys -- like McClendon, and Baylor to some extent -- had crappy teams. But they also didn't do that great, so it's not totally surprising that they haven't been handed other jobs. I don't know. MLB should do more to encourage front-office -- and, I guess, non-Harvard -- minority hires. But I don't think it's racism, necessarily, that has kept, say, Dusty Baker, from getting hired. I think it's good sense.
Doug (New Rochelle, NY): Joe - how do you assess Junior Griffey's legacy? The last few years have been marred by injuries, and yet he still has a great shot at 600 home runs and he is one of the few sluggers in this geneation without a steroid question hanging over his head.
Joe Morgan: What you havre with Griffey is a Hall of Fame career, but unfortunately people may remember him near the end, when he broke down. Willie Mays was the greatest I ever saw, but he was average toward the end of his career. Fortunately, he's already built his legacy. His place in history is already set. He's one of the greatest to ever play the game.
KT: That part is kind of boring. But I love this next part:
Joe Morgan: When you saw Griffey on the field, you knew he was having fun. You don't see that with all the other players.
KT: To me Griffey is kind of a famously sourpuss kind of guy. He always looked unhappy, to me. Am I crazy? And also: who cares?
Bob(Chicago): In your opinion, why didn't more teams interview Dusty Baker during the offseason? Has he been scarred by the Wood/Prior injuries since 2003 or is it just the residue of being a Cubs manager?
KT: Here's a quotation you might have read, that Dusty Baker once said, when his team was last in the league with a .318 OBP and was asked if his team should walk more: "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."
That is why more teams did not interview him. It betrays a lack of understanding about baseball bordering on the criminally insane. But let's see what Joe thinks.
Joe Morgan: I think all those things are in play. I don't think the Wood/Prior situation is as important as being in a losing situation in a big market. I'll go back to my answer before. Do you think if he was not African-American and had his same resume, would ha get interviewed?
KT: I think that no matter what ethnicity a man is, if he believes that walks "clog up the bases," he should not be a major league manager, because he is ill-suited for that job.
The same goes with Cito Gaston. We can say we shouldn't look at it that way, but you tell me another way to look at that, and I will.
KT: I just did. But here it is again, same guy (Dusty), same subject, different quote:
“No. 1, I’ve let most guys hit 3-0 (in the count). That’s one reason. . . . I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run.”
And this one:
“Who have been the champions the last seven, eight years? Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? . . . Walks help. They do help. But you aren’t going to walk across the plate, you’re going to hit across the plate. That’s the school I come from.”
For the record, the Yankees' championship teams were very much about OBP and walks.
Want more?
“Everybody can’t hit with two strikes, everybody can’t walk,” Baker said. “You’re taking away some of the aggressiveness of a kid if you’re telling him to go up there and try to work for a walk. . . . It’s like when I see kids in Little League and they make the small kids go up there and try to get a walk. That’s not any fun. . . . Do you ever see the top 10 walking (rankings)? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk, but the name of the game is to hit.”
How in the world is any sane GM going to let that guy manage his team?
There's no way that you can win like Dusty and Cito and not get another job. If you're an honest man, you realize there's something wrong with that picture.
KT: I actually take offense at this. Joe Morgan is calling me a racist. Or at least, not an honest man. That's wrong. If he's not careful, my friends and I might create a blog that ridicules him and people like him who don't know what they are talking about.
Bob (Tinley Park, IL): Joe, what do you think of Henry Aaron and Bud Selig's stance on Bonds breaking his record? Should they be there in your opinion or is Bonds a cheater and therefore not worthy of their presence?
Joe Morgan: I don't ever call anyone a cheater unless I know for sure.
KT: Okay. Fair enough. Barry Bonds told a federal grand jury that he used a clear substance and a cream supplied by the Burlingame laboratory now enmeshed in a sports doping scandal, but he said he never thought they were steroids, The Chronicle has learned.
Federal prosecutors charge that the Bay Area Laboratory Co-operative, known as BALCO, distributed undetectable steroids to elite athletes in the form of a clear substance that was taken orally and a cream that was rubbed onto the body.
Bonds testified that he had received and used clear and cream substances from his personal strength trainer, Greg Anderson, during the 2003 baseball season but was told they were the nutritional supplement flaxseed oil and a rubbing balm for arthritis, according to a transcript of his testimony reviewed by The Chronicle.
Federal prosecutors confronted Bonds during his testimony on Dec. 4, 2003, with documents indicating he had used steroids and human growth hormone during a three-year assault on baseball's home run record, but the Giants star denied the allegations.
During the three-hour proceeding, two prosecutors presented Bonds with documents that allegedly detailed his use of a long list of drugs: human growth hormone, Depo-Testosterone, undetectable steroids known as "the cream" and "the clear," insulin and Clomid, a drug for female infertility sometimes used to enhance the effect of testosterone.
The documents, many with Bonds' name on them, are dated from 2001 through 2003. They include a laboratory test result that could reflect steroid use and what appeared to be schedules of drug use with billing information, prosecutors told the grand jury.
In a September 2003 raid on Anderson's Burlingame home, federal investigators seized documents they said showed Bonds was using banned drugs, according to court records. Anderson was indicted in February on charges of money laundering and conspiracy to distribute steroids in the BALCO case.
Now can you say he cheated?
(Did you not hear about that, Joe? it was a really big story.)
Joe Morgan: Hopefully this will be a better week for all of us, and baseball will help us move forward in the aftermath of what happened at Virginia Tech. It has not been a good start to the week. I'm concerned because my two daughters will be going to school two years from now. It's almost like the Imus situatiion; kids and people going to get educated and being hit from the outside with negative comments and threates on their lives. I guess if you're not safe in college, where are you safe?
KT: I'd just like to say here that the Imus situation was horrifying and despicable, and I'm glad he was fired. But how on God's green earth do you even begin to compare that with the Virgina Tech massacre? That's not even apples and oranges -- it's like apples and hurricanes of murderous insanity that destroy entire communities.
Sorry this chat was so downerish and sad. Hopefully next week he'll just go back to saying he can't comment on anything.
i wouldn't expect joe to know this, or do any research, but mike hill (assisstant general manager for the florida marlins) is an african american harvard graduate. he played football and baseball for the crimson and was recruited by a coach i work with, which is the reason i know he's a harvard grad. additionally, his race should be fairly obvious from his picture.
Don't know if you heard the Dan Patrick show today but Joe Morgan was on and had the audacity to compare the VaTech massacre to the Don Imus comment. He said, "Here are kids going to school, not bothering anybody; trying to make something of themselves, trying to be better--and this is what they're subjected to."
I'll let that sink in for a moment...
Anyway, here's the link: http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/sportindex?sport=radio You need to be an ESPN insider to access it.
We don't usually post things that emailers say they heard on TV because they're impossible to verify, but this is just too perfect. From reader Philip: I caught some of the Mets-Braves game this afternoon which I believe was the ESPN debut of FJM favorite Dusty Baker along with Ric Sutcliffe and Dave Ryan. In the bottom of the first the three were discussing the Mets batting David Wright second in their batting order. Dusty says, "He (Wright) stole 20 bases last year so you don't have to worry about him clogging up the bases at the top of the order." For reference, first game, bottom of the first inning, first "clogging up the bases" quote from Dusty Baker.
