FIRE JOE MORGAN

This hill doesn't look too steep. Let's get a-pushin'!

Joe Morgan: The fact that the Mets lost another game proves to me that the last three outs are sometimes tougher than I've ever thought they were.

English Language: [explodes]

Cole (California): Hey Joe, im a HUGE D'backs fan. By trading for Dunn, did they make a mistaking trading for him since they already have a hitter like him in Mark reynolds?

Hey Cole. KT here. Real quick: Mark Reynolds is nothing like Adam Dunn. Mark Reynolds has a .335 OBP in 223 career games (.324 this year, in 113 games). He has 81 walks in those 223 career games. Adam Dunn has 82 walks so far this year. He has a career OPS of .900. He hits 40 HR a year, every year, like clockwork. He is, and I know Mark Reynolds is young, a far better hitter than Mark Reynolds.

Thanks for your time.

Joe Morgan: They do have a lot of hitters that strike out.

They are also 19th in OPS. Dunn immediately becomes their team leader in OPS. It is a good thing for their team that they got Dunn.

That's one of the problems on that team. But Dunn helps because he will supply power that they also do not have. It will make for a frustrating offense, but he will definitely hit the ball out of the park on a consistent basis.

This marks the first time I have ever supported Joe Morgan using the word "consistent."

Darek (Chicago, Il): Good day Joe. What are the chances of Ken Griffey Jr. playing in 2009 ? Do you see him retiring or returning to Seattle ? He might call it quits if the White sox go on to win the series, but it's a longshot

Joe Morgan: Griffey is in a situation now where he will have to decided as the season goes along.

English Language: [weeps]

He has had some bad stretches, but the last time I talked to him, he told me he felt much better. It's yet to be determined what he's going to end up doing.

KT: I hate to beat a dead horse --

Universe, Speaking from 2006: Too late.

KT: -- but the man asking this question asked you for your opinion on what Ken Griffey, Jr. is going to do next year, and your answer was to say: "It's yet to be determined what he's going to end up doing." Which the guy -- and everyone else -- knew already, which was why he asked for your opinion.

Universe, Speaking from 2006: Dump your financial stocks. They're going to tank.

KT: Now you tell me.

Springfield,Massachussets: will the redsox make it to the world series again

Joe Morgan: Their chances of making it back took a big shot when they traded Manny. I don't think people realize how valuable he was, and how much pressure he took off the other players. Without him hitting behind Big Papi, they will pitch around him in big situations.

KT: There's something poetic about the fact that the night this chat took place, Ortiz hit two 3-R HR in the first inning of a baseball game.

Joe Morgan: I have felt all along that the Cuvs were the best team in the NL,

Me tov.

and the Red Sox in the AL, but now the Angels have proven to be the best by far in the AL. [...]

Angels: 75-44, +63 run differential.
DRays: 72-47, +65
Sox: 70-51, +118

Wins are all that matters, really, but I wouldn't say the Angels are "the best by far."

Mark: Joe, as of right now who is the AL MVP?

Joe Morgan: That's difficult to answer because the season is not over,

KT: The question was "as of right now."

Theoretical Joe Morgan: Right, and it's hard to answer because of what will happen in the future.

KT: But...the question is: right now, who's the MVP. Like, now. At this moment.

TJM: But I can't answer that, because I can't tell the future.

KT: Hang on. Let me try something. What time is it.

TJM: No way to tell.

KT: Because you don't know what time it will be in the future?

TJM: Correct.

KT: Fair enough.

and the last month usually determines that. I keep hearing about Josh Hamilton's great story, but that's not what the MVP award is all about.

Amen. The guy might lead the league in RsBI, but he's also had a ton of RsBI chances, and there's a better candidate on his own team: AL OPS leader Milton Bradley.

Carlos Quentin has kept his team in the mix since Day 1. But there are other guys who should be in the mix. Dustin Pedroia in Boston should get some votes.

Pedroier is having an excellent year. But how about Kevin Youkilis, and his .960 OPS, excellent defense (2 errors last night notwithstanding) and 58 XBH?

Justin Morneau is still the leader of the Twins.

Trent Reznor is still the leader of Nine Inch Nails. Doesn't mean he should be MVP.

Someone like A-Rod could get hot and carry the Yankees to a playoff berth, so he could be in consideration.

Look at the guy's stats and tell me he shouldn't be "in consideration" right now. I don't think he should win, but he is most effing definitely "in consideration."

I would say, as of now, Quentin would get my vote.

Not a bad choice. After all that.

Nick (Brooklyn ,NY): Hey Joe, I just wanted to get your opinion on the Yankees. They've been a little shaky lately since losing Joba, How do you think the last month and a half is going to turn out for them ?

Joe Morgan: They've been shaky in general. The trade that sent Farnsworth has made them unreliable in the 8th inning, and their starting pitching needs to be more consistent, like Mussina has been and Joba was. Their offense hasn't been consistent either. They'll have a good game, a couple of poor games, then another good game--they just haven't been consistent.

Look at how many "consistent"s we have. Here. I'll reprint that, and bold the "consistent"s.

Joe Morgan: They've been shaky in general. The trade that sent Farnsworth has made them consistent in the 8th inning, and their consistent pitching needs to be more consistent, like Consistent has been and Joba consistent. Their consistent hasn't been consistent consistent. They'll have a consistent game, a consistent of consistent consistents, then consistent consistent consistent--consistent consistent consistent't consistent consistent.

Mike (NY,NY): Are the Rays done without Evan Longoria? Do they go out and try something bold like getting Shef or Barry?

Joe Morgan: They definitely need to try to get another hitter. They are shorthanded now, but so are a lot of teams. They have stayed the course, so to speak, without making trades at the deadline that could have brought them another hitter. I hadn't thought of him, but Sheffield would be a great fit for that team.

Joe's Brain: Got in a bunch of "consistents," mentioned Sheff...what else do I have to do today? Oh -- eat. I should eat something.

Nick (Brooklyn, NY): Joe, If you had to make your prediction for who's going to make the AL Wild Card at this point in time, who do you believe it would be?

Joe Morgan: I would pick Boston at this point, but the White Sox and Twins are right there as well. The Rays also have a chance if Boston surges past them.

Joe's Brain: Why do I feel weird?

Joe's Guardian Angel [Tony Perez]: You just made a prediction.

Joe's Brain: Yuck. I hate it. Never again.

Joe Morgan: See you next week, everyone!

Why not, I guess.

Labels: consistency, joe morgan, joechat

Congratulations, everybody. This is the big one.

Joe Morgan: The season continues to become more and more interesting every week. The Yankees looked like they were on a roll and now they're struggling again.

Ken Tremendous: ...Oh. You're done. That's what makes this season more and more interesting. Not the NL West race, or the Brewers reclaiming a big lead, or the emergence of like 4 great SS in the NL, or two of the most famous steroid users in history chasing hallowed milestones. It's the Yankees' inability to stay hot.

Matt (Watertown, NY): Where do you put the blame for the fall of the White Sox this year? I'm blaming injuries for our demise.. Erstad, Podsednik, Crede, and Dye have been injured, hurting our offense!

Joe Morgan: A lot of it has to do with injuries, but every team has injuries. Every team. That's not a good enough excuse. I'm not sure of what's going on there, but injuries is not the main problem there. It's contributed to their downfall. All those good players with proven records all of a sudden can't hit. I'm not close enough to the situation to put my finger on the exact cause.

KT: If you are a regular reader of our blog, you would know -- from a post not too far down on this page -- that PECOTA had the ChiSox at 72-90 this year. A computer knew that this was going to happen, Joe. A computer.

The reasons are many and readily evident. Joe Crede came back to earth and got injured. Jermaine Dye is not nearly as good as he looked in 2006. Thome is 36. Konerko is 32 and declining already. Toss in a few pitching woes here and there (their staff is pretty old, too) and you have a disaster on your hands.

Joe's answer -- and here I must remind you once again that he is the number one analyst on the number one baseball network in America (the number one country in terms of baseball generally) -- is: I'm not close enough to the situation to put my finger on the exact cause.

I actually have a Red Phone that goes right to the PECOTA computer. Just...hang one on sec. It's ringing.

Hello.

Hey PECOTA computer, it's Ken.

Hello Ken. How are you.

Fine, thanks. Quick question -- have you ever met the White Sox players?

No.

And you haven't, like, "gotten close to the situation" this year. Like, you haven't hung out in US Cellular, shooting the shit with front office guys or anything.

No.

You just kind of used your "brain" to figure out whether they were going to be good, right?

Yes.

Okay. Thanks. One more question. How long is my marriage going to last if I spend all of my free time blogging about baseball writing?

3.2 years.

Yikes. Okay. Thanks.

Brent S. (fjm): Why are the yankees so up and down ths season? also what are your thoughts on the rocket coming in relief?

Joe Morgan: Unfortunately, everything seems to be riding on A-Rod. When he's up they're up, when he's in a lull, they are. The biggest mistake they made was getting rid of Sheffield. He's been the leader on that team offensively the three years that he was there, except the year A-Rod was the MVP. He and A-Rod carried the team. Matsui and Jeter were contributors, but those two carried the team. Now they just have A-Rod. He's played great all year, and he's carried the team to victories. But I'm shocked when I did their game against the Mets three weeks ago and they had won 11 of 12 and looked like they were on a roll. Now they're back to where they started from.

KT: Hey, kids! Here's a game you can play at home. What did Joe leave out in his analysis of the Yankees' struggles? (Here's a hint: there are three aspects of baseball -- hitting, pitching, and fielding.)

Some Yankees' WHIPs/ERAs:

Mussina: 1.35/4.98 (65 IP)
Clemens: 1.42/5.09 (17 IP)
Igawa: 1.61/7.13 (35 IP)
Farnsworth: 1.65/5.16 (29 IP)
Bruney: 1.50/1.97) (24 BB in 32 IP)
Vizcaino: 1.54/5.35 (37 IP)

Now Ken, you say. Aren't ERAs kind of a coarse way to evaluate pitchers? Yes, you arrogant dicks, they are. That's why I included WHIP as well. But also...many of these guys are relievers. Do you know what it means when a lot of your relievers have high ERAs? It means they are letting a ton of guys on base, and then their reliever buddies are letting them score.

The Yankees have scored the 3rd most runs in all of baseball. Losing Sheffield is not their problem. They have the 16th best team ERA in baseball. That is their problem. They have Wang, and Pettitte (who I swear to you all is going to come back down to earth soon), and that's about it. Proctor is unreliable. Rivera is steadying after a shaky first few weeks, but it's June 26 and he's had eleven save chances. Eleven. That's bad.

What is the point of all of this? The point is: how do you get asked a question about what is wrong with the Yankees and not mention their pitching? Answer: you are a terrible analyst.

Zach (Montezuma, IA): What will the Padres get out of Barrett?

Joe Morgan: I had become a big fan of Michael Barrett. I don't know about his defensive deficiencies. I thought he was a pretty good player. I was surprised when they made that deal. I don't believe it had anything to do with the fight, because I think Barrett and Zambrano had shook hands and gotten over it. I'm a Barrett fan, so I think he'll do a good job in San Diego. It's always tough, though, to be shifted in the middle of the season and not know why.

KT: First of all. God. I don't even know what to write as my "first of all."

Okay.

First of all: do you actually think that the Barrett trade had nothing to do with the fight? Think about this, before you answer, Joe. The catcher for the Cubs got into a fistfight with their best pitcher. Then he was traded. He also has a reputation as being a fight-y kind of dude.

Second of all: the question is: "What will the Padres get out of Barrett?" It takes six sentences before Joe even begins to address the question.

And third: he never really addresses the question.

Classic.

And speaking of classic:

Will (Lexington, KY): the reds have young talent for sure, but can they become contenders with the management they have right now?

Joe Morgan: That's a very good question. I don't think I'm equipped to answer that question. But it's a very good question, because I've been asking myself the same question. I'm not as close to the situation as I have been or should be, but I've talked to the owner and he wants to win. I am disappointed in what I've seen so far.

KT: All-time low, right? I think so. All-time low.

Can the Reds become contenders?

That's a very good question.

Thanks, Joe! Wow. That's flattering.

I don't think I'm equipped to answer that question.

But...you are an analyst. You even played for the team.

But it's a very good question, because I've been asking myself the same question.

You've written the word "question" an all-time record four times in three sentences. Also: you've been asking yourself the same question, and you still can't answer it?

I'm not as close to the situation as I have been or should be, but I've talked to the owner and he wants to win.

You're not as close as you should be? How close should you be, exactly? You are an objective analyst, right?

Also: you've talked to the owner. And he wants to win. Just so you know, Joe -- if you ever talk to an owner and the owner says he does not want to win, you have a major scoop on your hands. You have the plot of "Major League."

At what point does ESPN finally come to its senses and realize that this man is simply not equipped to be a baseball analyst?

Brent S. (fjm): Are the braves dead?

Joe Morgan: They were only four games out. So you can't say they're dead.

KT: End here. You answered the question. Good work. Just stop. Please. No?

That's why baseball is such a great sport - anything can happen in the next three months.

This sentence can be used at any moment for any question. That's how you know it is not a good or insightful piece of commentary.

The Yankees are up and down.

Not even in the same division. Has nothing to do with anything.

The Braves got hot, but then couldn't score a run for three days. So much can happen, so you can't say they're out of the race.

You earlier said you couldn't see them wining the division. Are you talking Wild Card, or...

That's what you get with young players - ups and downs.

...Oh. You're just talking clichés. Okay.

Brent S. (fjm): is sammy sosa a hall of famer?

Joe Morgan: Yes. And it shouldn't even be a debate.

KT: Again. I have no problem if you think Sosa, McGwire, et al. should be in the HOF. But to say it shouldn't even be a debate? Come on. It should definitely be a debate.

We have a tendency to want to decide who did steroids without any proof. Yet there are a lot of guys who were doing it and aren't being accused and aren't being suspected.

But there are only a few who have the on-paper qualifications to make it to the HOF, baseball's most hallowed ground. I don't think anyone is going to waste a lot of breath talking about whether Alex Sanchez should like get his MLB pension -- because that is unimportant. But the HOF is the HOF. And you, Joe, of all people, should want to debate this into the ground.

And by the way, everyone: Sammy Sosa did steroids. Innocent until proven guilty, benefit of the doubt, etc. etc. He fucking did steroids, okay? He did something. Here are his full-season HR totals starting in 1990 (skipping partial totals in 91 and 92)

15
33
25 (partial season)
36
40
36
66 (!)
63 (!!)
50
64 (!!!!!!!)

He increased his personal high in HR by 65% in one year. He hit opposite-field, flat-footed homers. Then testing heated up and he suddenly pretended he didn't speak English and started absolutely sucking wind and couldn't hit a beach ball with a tennis racket. He did steroids. So cool it with the holier-than-thou Constitutional arguments. I get it, it's great, I'm very proud of everyone for remembering their 8th grade social studies Bill of Rights class. But come on.

We've only taken a few to choose to point fingers at. The one thing that Sammy did was let the fans be a part of his celebration and of his career. I like that.

"Letting Fans Be Part of Celebration" -- not a criterion for HOF induction.

mvp (mvpland): will ken griffey jr. get traded if so what team?

Joe Morgan: Yes, I think they would consider trading him. They had a deal a couple of years ago set, but he turned it down. They have definitely tried to trade him over the last couple of years. But he would have to approve the deal, because he has a no-trade.

KT: What team, please, Joe? No? Not even a guess. Okay.

Shawn Dayton Ohio: What do the indians need to do before the trading deadline to help them make the final push to the world series

Joe Morgan: What I've seen of the Indians is they just need to be more consistent. They have all the pieces, but like everyone else, they need another starting pitcher. But every team is like that.

KT: This is what would happen if you went to Joe's computer and held your finger down on F1:

They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent. They need to be more consistent.

Bob (Brooklyn): What's more important to evaluate a pitcher: Wins or ERA?

Joe Morgan: I've always believed that an ERA is like a batting average.

KT: You're right! They are both crude and sometimes misleading stats that are overused!

It's a personal thing.

Come again?

For instance, a guy could hit .300, but not be as valuable as a guy that hits .270.

Right again! If the guy who hits .270 walks a lot and hits for power, he is certainly more valuable than a guy who hits .300 with all singles and never walks. Good -- you had me worried with that weird tangential comment about "it's a personal thing."

A guy that makes 7 outs out of 10 with guys on base, he's not that valuable.

Screw you, man. Seriously.

What if the 3 hits are HR? What if they are doubles? Hell, what if they're singles, but with no runners on base he has a .450 OBP and a 1.900 OPS?

Read that sentence again, Joe, and defend it. Defend the idea that if you look at only a hitter's BA with men on base -- and that BA is .300! -- he's not that valuable. Defend that well, and I will shut this blog down and cash in my Fremulon Insurance stock options and move to Ohio and sculpt a statue of me picking your nose and eating it with a huge grin on my face wearing a tee shirt that reads: Joe Morgan Rocks My World.

But if you're clutch, but hit .275, you're more valuable.

So just to reiterate.

If you hit .300 with men on base, you are not valuable.

If you hit .275 but you are "clutch," meaning, presumably, that you hit with men on base, you are valuable.

Notice to all baseball players. If you are hitting .300 with men on base, regardless of what those hits are, and regardless of what you are hitting when there are no men on base, the way to become more valuable is to lower your BA 25 points, down to that coveted ".275" sweetspot.

That's why I think wins are better.

I literally cannot wait to read the rest of this paragraph.

It's just as tough to win a game 7-6 as it is 1-0.

This is not true. If the final score is 1-0, that means that the widest margin for error you have is one run. That seems pressure-packed, to me. If you win 7-6, that might mean you have a 7-0 lead in the first inning. If the bases are loaded with nobody out, your infield can play back and concede a run for an out. You can pitch around good hitters in key situations. You don't have nearly as much pressure, theoretically. Do you ever think about what you are writing before you write it?

The only thing that matters at the end of the year is how many games did we win.

As a team, perhaps. But as an individual stat: no. Do I have to explain why? I will, just in case you, Joe, are reading this, and forgot how baseball works.

Johan Santana this year is 8-6. Jeff Suppan also has 8 wins. Is Jeff Suppan as good as John Santana? No he is not. He is one-point-seven tra-billion times worse. That's mathematically accurate. You can look that up. So why does Suppan have the same number of wins? Because his teammates have scored a lot of runs for him. So he can be a worse pitcher, but still get credited with a "win."

Is this really novel, to you? Is this really not something you have ever thought about? After like 50 years in baseball?

Jason (Michigan): Hi Joe. Do you think the Tigers will be able to get some breathing room from the Indians in the central? These teams have been 2 games apart from each other for 2 months and it's clear that the Tigers are the better team all around.

Joe Morgan: I don't know if they'll get any breathing room, but I think they'll win because they're the best team. I think they're the best team and I said that at the beginning of the year.

KT: Wow. You picked last year's World Series rep from the AL, who have a ton of awesome young pitchers and can rake 1-9, to be the best team in the AL Central. Nice work.

Pat ((Ontario,CA)): Do you think Russell Martin is one the best catchers in the game?

Joe Morgan: I think that he's definitely established himself as a very good catcher. When you watch him play, he has confidence and I look for that.

KT: Other things that Russell Martin has, besides "confidence," that make him one of the best catchers in the game: an .822 OPS, 13 SB (!), a .77 BB/K ratio, and the 5th highest CS% of all catchers.

But really, I think it's his confidence.

Mike, Rockaway Beach: What team(s) do you like to watch during the week when you aren't working the Sunday night games?

Joe Morgan: I'm just like every other fan - I watch every game. I check the box scores and check the stats like everyone else. I'm as interested in the Kansas City Royals as I am the Yankees or Red Sox. I'm a baseball fan. I just like to watch everybody.

KT: Excuse me, for one second. I have to dig through our files. Ah. here we go. Now let me just pull out some quotes here...

I haven't seen enough of him this year
It's tough for me to answer that question from afar
I don't see how they go about their business on a day-to-day basis
I don't know much about their front office and their scouting systems
I won't say someone's overrated because I don't see him every day
I don't know either of them well enough to make the statements that you made
I haven't seen him play first base
I just don't know how good the Dodgers are
I haven't seen him play much. We've only done one Padre game.
I haven't had much of a chance to check him out, but I have heard some good things
He was one of my favorite players before he got injured. I haven't seen him play this year to see how strong his arm is.
I only saw the highlights
I can only go by what Showalter told me, and that is that if they get everyone healthy they will have a good team.
It's hard for me to say because I haven't seen the Twins this year.
[Can the Tigers keep up the hot streak all season long?] I've only seen highlights so far.
I just haven't seen them enough to put my finger on it yet.

So...you're watching a lot of baseball, there, Joe?

Kyle (Kansas): What is the most overated stat in baseball?

Joe Morgan: Batting average

KT: Hallelujah!

and earned run average

Good answer.

and this OPS stuff they do.

"This OPS stuff they do." My favorite thing he has ever written. Ever. This "OPS" "stuff" "they" "do." Joe is officially the Grumpy Old Man character Dana Carvey used to do on SNL.

OPS doesn't tell you anything except about the individual.

...What the hell else are you going to learn from an individual stat? There are team stats too. Do you know that? What does BA tell you? Or HR? Or 2B, or 3B, or OBP, or anything? They are individual stats. If you go to ESPN's stat page, you can click on "player batting" or "team batting." Because they are different.

The same as the other stats. It doesn't tell you anything about the team. A .300 average doesn't help you win games, run production does.

Run production. RsBI, then? A stat that is almost entirely dependent on other people? Okay. Julio Lugo has as many RsBi as Grady Sizemore, Bill Hall, and Frank Thomas. He's within one of Placido Polanco and Ian Kinsler. RBI is possibly the dumbest commonplace way to evaluate hitters.

Chad (Austin, TX): Joe, How come you never got into coaching or managing?

Joe Morgan: Well, it's a situation that's never been right for me. There have always been other things going on. It's never been the right situation to pull me in.

KT: Or, possibly, no one was crazy enough to hire you. I honestly don't know.

Greg (Palatine, IL): Do you think Beurhle going to the Red Sox would be a good move for Boston?

KT: Okay, man. The question is about Boston. Would it be a good move for Boston? Would Mark Buehrle be good for Boston? For the Red Sox, if he went to the Red Sox -- would that be good, for the Red Sox, or bad, for the Red Sox? What do you think, Joe, about Mark Buehrle, vis-a-vis the Red Sox, if he went to the Red Sox?

Joe Morgan: I have no idea where he's going, but I do believe he'll be traded because he's a free agent. They're not playing well and they're not catching anybody.

KT: Annnnnnnnnnnnd...we have complete cerebral failure.

Billy (Michigan): Hey Joe, Who is your MVP for the AL and NL?

KT: Easy one. Name three guys from each league who are awesome. I'd say: AL: Magglio, ARod, maybe Vlad or Guillen. Jeter/Posada, maybe. NL: Fielder, Cabrera, Griffey as a dark horse? Reyes? He's fun to watch. Holliday would be interesting. Bonds, of course, though the team is terrible. Utley?

Joe Morgan: I think in the NL it's open, but Prince Fielder and JJ Hardy come to mind. Jose Reyes. I think several guys have a chance.

Okay. What about the AL?

...

Joe?

Oh. You're just not going to answer.

Bill (Chicago): How come their is so much parity these days?

Joe Morgan: That may be the best question I've heard in the last few months.

KT: Really? That seems...pretty straightforward to me.

No one seems to realize what's happened to the game. There are not any great teams any more. That's when you have parity. Every team has weaknesses. When your strengths show, you win 4-5. When your weaknesses who, you lose 4-5. That's why certain teams match up better with certain teams - the strengths and weaknesses matchup.

Does anyone understand this? "That's why certain teams match up better with certain teams - the strengths and weaknesses matchup." Isn't that...isn't that always why certain teams match up better against other teams? This is a new phenomenon?

And as for the argument that there are not any great teams anymore: I'd say the Red Sox are a pretty great team right now. And the Tigers, with their pitching and hitting. The Angels are pretty kick-ass, with the 5th best RS and 8th best RA.

Also, nearly every team in history has had some kind of weakness. So save the "it was better in the old days" stuff.

Fred (Atlanta): Who's the best hitter in the game today?

Joe Morgan: I would have to say Albert Pujols or Manny Ramirez, normally.

KT: Manny Ramirez is nowhere close to being the best hitter in the game right now. Nor, technically, is Pujols, though by the end of the year, I'd say each will be closer to that title than they are now. ARod is your answer. Maybe Magglio, though he will probably cool down. Bonds is a candidate, still. Prince Fielder is climbing the ranks. But ARod.

If they were doing what they normally do. A-Rod has more power, and hits for average. A hitter is a guy that just gets hits. On second thought, A-Rod might be the best,

There it is.

because he's the most dangerous at hitting the ball out of the ballpark right now. Obviously, these things are all open for debate considering what you're looking for - power or average. Ideally, you're looking for both.

In other words...you're basically looking for...OPS, if you add in walks? You're looking for OPS. The stat you disparaged for no discernible reason, a while ago. That is now what you are ideally looking for. Explain yourself.

Joe Morgan: Great questions. Looking forward to talking to you next week.

KT: I strongly dislike you.

Labels: fremulon insurance, joe morgan, joechat

If you don't want to read the whole Joe Morgan chat, I'll just give you some highlights:

-- He hasn't been consistent
-- I'm not convinced they're going to be consistent
-- Small ball
-- Smart ball
-- I don't know
-- I haven't seen enough of him this year
-- Dice-K is considered a rookie, but I don't buy that.
-- If I had to pick an actual rookie, I'd have to say Dice-K will have the largest impact.
-- It's tough for me to answer that question from afar
-- I don't see how they go about their business on a day-to-day basis.
-- I'd have to think more about it
-- I don't know

That about sums it up. If you're a glutton for punishment, read on.

Brandyn S. - Chicago: Joe - what are your thoughts on the success the Red Sox have had without major contributions from David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez to this point in the season?

Joe Morgan: I think Ortiz has contributed big hits, but hasn't been as consistent as he'd like...If you look at that team overall, you still have to wonder where the runs are going to come from, other than Manny and Ortiz, so I'm not convinced they're going to be consistent.

Ken Tremendous: How exactly has Ortiz not been "consistent?" he has a 1.046 OPS in 140 AB, with 9 HR and 28 BB. It's not like he put all that up in a 2-week stretch. He has been incredibly consistent. You can't just say stuff like that, man. Also, with Manny, Lugo, Crisp, Pedroia, and JD Drew all biting it hard, the Sox lead the AL in runs and have a .814 OPS. They are walking like maniacs (170, tops in the AL) and thus have a .369 team OBP. You know what that means? That means they have a very good chance at being "consistent," because their hot start is not based on flukey BA stats that will even out. This is why it's good to walk a lot. Because it allows your offense to be consistent. Hence: You are a moron.

Matt (Knoxville, TN): Would you name some palyers (past and present) who changed/are changing the way baseball is played?

Joe Morgan: I don't think there have been that many players that have changed the game.

KT: Yeah. You're right. Very few players have changed the game. Good answer.

Maury Wills changed things in the '60s bringing the SB back from where Ty Cobb put it. There was a change as far as pitching, with the split-finger fastball...but I'm not sure who gets credit for that. Hitting styles in the '90s changed when players started diving in. George Brett and the Royals got that going. That stayed for a while. And then, I'd say late '90s, everybody started with a slight uppercut like McGwire and Sosa took off. In the 2000s, pitching has gone more to offspeed pitches than ever before and I really believe now, small ball - or as Ozzie Guillen called it, smart ball - is starting to come back. I can't say who initiated those changes, but that's what I've seen.

KT: So, here are Joe's choices for Players Who Changed the Game:

Maury Wills
Split-Fingered Fastball Guy, Whoever That Is
George Brett
McGwire/Sosa (Uppercutters)
Smallball/Smartball

Here are some he didn't name:

Babe Mother-Humping Ruth
Jackie Robinson (both for breaking the color barrier and for his actual play)
Joe Page (some consider the first real "closer" or relief ace)
Rickey Henderson
Dennis Eckersley
Jose Canseco (for introducing steroids, mostly)
Cal Ripken
Barry Bonds

And hell, why not Billy Beane? Or Moe Berg, or Goose Gossage? Or Pete Rose and his gambling?

And for the record, Roger Craig is often given credit for the spread of the splitter. Bruce Sutter threw it a lot. Have you not watched a lot of baseball, Joe?

Mike (NYC): Do you see Roger Clemens making a serious contribution to the Yanks? I think a rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Moose, Rocket and Hughes can be tremendous.

Joe Morgan: On paper, you're right, Mike. But on paper, the Yankees looked good at the beginning of the season, too. Guess what? You still have to go out there and pitch and stay healthy. I don't know how many starts Rocket's going to get and I'm sure he'll pitch well. But to say that staff is going to match, say Detroits or Boston's when they're healthy, I don't see it that way. I guess my point is, Rocket's going to do his thing, but they have to stay healthy. That said, I don't ever discount what the Yankees can do, because they have such a good offense.

KT: Let's boil this paragraph down to its essence:

Joe Morgan: On paper, but on paper, guess what? I don't know, I'm sure, but, I don't see it that way. I guess my point is, but that said, I don't.

KT: Equally helpful.

Grady Sizemore (Cleveland): Joe what's wrong with my bat right now? People have said I'm as good if not better than Beltran, but I sure don't feel like it right now. Any thoughts?

KT: I'm guessing Grady is not going to get any actual analysis of his slump. I'm guessing he's not going to get: "You have a hitch in your swing," or "You're not taking outside pitches the other way like you did last year" or "Don't worry -- you're still walking a lot (26 in 130 or so AB) so the power will come back" or anything like that. Anyone want to bet me? You all do? You all think Joe will give specific and insightful comments about Grady Sizemore's hitting slump? You want to be me $100 each? Okay. Let's see.

Joe Morgan: I haven't seen enough of him this year to give a real good opinion, but hitters go through stretches where they're not swinging the bat well. If a guy gets off to a .400 start, at some point he'll hit .100 to balance that out...and vice versa. Remember, we're talking about a batting AVERAGE, and you're never going to have all great months. I wouldn't panic just yet and I think there's a long way to go. I'm sure he'll get hot, because he is a good player.

KT: Send your $100 checks to:

Ken Tremendous
c/o Area 62
Secret Coast Guard Whale-Monitoring Program
Ejeisseurleunde-Trei Weather Station
Transfeille, Greenland FS-6

Norman (NY): Good morning Joe. I was wondering what your thoughts are on the fast starts for both JJ Hardy and Prince Fielder. Can Hardy keep up this MVP like pace and do you think that Prince Fielder can already be considered one of the elite power hitters in the game?

Joe Morgan: I think I said this on our first chat this year. When I went to Spring Training this year, the only game I saw was Milwaukee-Chicago Cubs as a practice game.

February 27, 2007

Joe Morgan: That was a good game. The Brewers are a fun club.
ESPN Talent Handler: You want to head over to the other field? The Reds are playing a split-squad game against the Padres.
Joe Morgan: No, I'm good.
ESPN Talent Handler: ...Okay. Well, I'll drive you back to the hotel. Tomorrow, the Giants play the Braves, we have the Dodgers-Angels, and at night the DRays are playing the Tigers. Where do you want to go?
Joe Morgan: I'm good, I think.
ESPN Talent Handler: You...don't want to see any of the games?
Joe Morgan: Nah. I saw this one. That seems like enough.
ESPN Talent Handler: For the whole Spring? Just one game?
Joe Morgan: It was a long game.
ESPN Talent Handler: So...you're just going to head home?
Joe Morgan: (inexplicably furious) I saw a game! Get off my back, Phillip!
ESPN Talent Handler: Jennifer.
Joe Morgan: Whatever.

Wade: (Nashville, TN): Joe, what rookie do you think will have the biggest impact on their team the rest of the season?

Joe Morgan: Just off of what I've seen Travis Buck and Jack Cust, although not a total newcomer, are strong candidates for impact guys the rest of the way. Dice-K is considered a rookie, but I don't buy that. He's played in Japan all these years, and although it's correct that it's his first MLB season, I don't think it's the same as a Phil Hughes from the Yankees. So, if I had to pick an actual rookie, I'd have to say Dice-K will have the largest impact.

KT: Jack Cust is 28 years old and has had 29 AB this year. Let's hold off on the coronation a little, can we? Also, I don't need to point out why this is stupid, right Joe? I don't need to point out that you said that you don't think DiceK is a rookie, and then immediately -- like in the next sentence -- said that the rookie who will have the largest impact is DiceK. Do I? I do? Okay.

David (RedLegs Nation): Hey Joe Whats up you see any thing turning the reds around or are we stuck in the basement?

Joe Morgan: I'm disappointed in the Reds, because they got off to a good start and I thought their confidence would be high. But things haven't gone well the last two weeks, so they'll need to straighten it out.

KT: How about this one? Do I need to point out that the question was "will anything turn the Reds around? and your answer was "they'll need to straighten it out"? Do I have to explain why that is not a good answer? Or, more accurately, not an answer at all?

Sam Perlozzo (Baltimore): Joe, I had a horrible 9th inning in Boston Sunday followed by a near fight in the dugout last night between Mora and Payton. Is my time as manager drawing short?

Joe Morgan: It's tough for me to answer that question from afar, because I don't see how they go about their business on a day-to-day basis.

KT: You are a baseball analyst. This is unacceptable. Get off your ass and start researching these things. Or at least fake it, for Crissakes. It's pathetic.

Brian(NY): Joe here's a tough one for ya...if you we're to start a franchise from scratch for the next 5 years who would you're infield team be , mine would be Pujols,Kinsler,Reyes and Wright.

Joe Morgan: I can't argue with that. I'm not sure I'd put Kinsler ahead of Cano. He's hitting home runs, but is he a better hitter than Cano, who hit .340 last year. I wouldn't argue with that infield other than 2B, but I'd have to think more about it.

KT: I know it's early this year, and he was great last year, but are you sure you want Cano? And his .226 EqA? Even though he's older, I think I'd take this guy and his .326 EqA.

Dave (Richmond VA): Hey Joe! How good do you think that Phil Hughes can be this year? Is he a legit number 2 or 3?

Joe Morgan: I don't know how good he can be, since he hasn't pitched enough games.

KT: You are a baseball analyst. This is unacceptable. Get off your ass and start researching these things. Or at least fake it, for Crissakes. It's pathetic. (This answer is now F2 on my keyboard.)

He doesn't have enough starts to gauge whether he's a 1, 2, 3 or 4. That's the problem sometimes is that people want to slot guys. Paper doesn't make you a No. 1, 2 or 3. Handling adversity does.

KT: Also making you a #1, #2, or #3 pitcher: how good a pitcher you are.

Joe Morgan: It was a good chat. Excellent questions and I look forward to talking to you again next week!

KT: Every time one of these things ends, I pray he will sign off with: "Thanks for the questions! I have realized I know nothing about baseball and have decided to retire!"

Until he does, I'll just keep rolling this rock up this hill.

Labels: joe morgan, joechat

An interesting twist in the ongoing saga of imaginary ESPN intern Bill Fremp. This week's JoeChat is significantly more Joe-like than last week's. Is Joe actually back at the keyboard? Or is Fremp adapting...changing...learning?

Let's take what I like to call a "look-see" (®©™ Fremulon, LLC, all rights reserved; the term "look-see" may not be used without written permission of Fremulon, LLC or its partners) and reserve our conclusions for the end...

JW (NH): Joe - man what a waste of $126M! Can Zito find his curveball working in the bullpen or is it harder to get consistent when you don't go every fifth day? Joe Morgan: Well every fifth day will not make you consistent.

Let me just pause here to say that one of the ways that we knew (and by "knew," I mean "wildly claimed") it wasn't Joe last week was: there was nary a "consistent" to be found. Count how many there are this week.

But the Giants do have to be worried about their investment. But many people saw this coming. (...)

Lot's of "but"s this week, already, too. Is this really Joe? Or an increasingly clever imposter?

Mike (Clearwater, FL): Hi Joe - Are the Rays for real? Can they really manage to stay near the top of the standings?

Joe Morgan: To say they can do it for the whole year is a bit hard to tell right now. So far they are doing eveyrthing right. But I feel like that ballpark will hurt them in the end, becasue it is so hard to be consistent there, where teams think they can score runs. You need a big home field advantage, and I do not think they have it. A lot of the fans, when they play the Yankees, for example, are New York fans. I think the mixture of fans there does not give them much of a home field advantage, which they need. But they do have talent and are playing very well together right now.

But...but...consistent...Yankees...nonsense. This smells like Joe. And yet, I can't quite bring myself to believe...

SprungOnSports (Long Island): You saw the Tigers and Angels last Sunday, what's your take on those two AL clubs who have not been playing to their potential as of late?

Joe Morgan: The Angels are playing up to their potential when you consider they have had injuries to their top two starting pitchers. The Tigers are just incosistent.

This is Fremp. I promise you. He's gotten better at his craft, but another "consistent," and a typo to boot? Gilding the lilly. Too perfect. Like the too-perfect English that Axis spies spoke when impersonating British businessmen.

They scored a lot of runs last week and are not scoring this week. The week before I saw them, they were on a hot streak. But it's easy to look good against Texas before you play the Angels. But I do think Detroit will play better as the season continues. And I thought Verlander played better and used his three pitches well. Again, as I have said before, it comes down to how Sheffield plays. He is their run producer and the difference maker. When he hits well, they'll do well.

More "but"s, and a Sheffield reference. I'm sorry. This is too stupid even for Joe. Not even Joe would call Gary Sheffield (.159/.321/.254) the "run producer" or "difference maker" on a team with Cabrera, Guillen, Ordonez, and Granderson. This is not Joe. This is the Wyatt Gwyon of Joe Morgan impersonators.

Kevin (STL): The Mets offense is not very consistent

Well done, Kevin.

right now....How much of that is due to Reyes struggles?

Joe Morgan: For some reason everyone wants to blame Reyes for everything that happens with the Mets. He is not even one of the top payed players on the team, and yet everything gets blamed on him, including last year's collapse.

...Well, he did hit .205/.279/.333 in September, unlike his buddy David Wright, who got blamed for the collapse way more (to the tune of: he lost the MVP because of it) despite the fact that Wright hit .352/.432/.602 with 6 HR in September. And I'm not sure what his salary has to do with anything, when you're just talking about on-field performance. This is such a weird response, I want to believe Fremp just took a break here and the real Joe sidled up to the keyboard for a moment...

They have Delgado, Beltran and Wright also playing for them. Now it does not help them that he has not been playing well at the top of the order. But there are other guys on this team besides Reyes, and the Mets need their veterans to step up.

Delgado may be done, but Beltran isn't playing that badly, and Wright has a .980 OPS this year. They do need Reyes to play way better. I think we can all agree on that. Can't we....Fremp?!

Dave (Chicago): Do you think Sheffield can make it back from his shoulder problems or is this the end of the line?

Joe Morgan: That is a big question with a veteran player. I had this conversation about Frank Thomas last year, when he got off to a slow start, but look what he ended up doing last year. When you are a young guy and this happens, you're in a slump, but when you are a vet it becomes an "end of the line" issue, and that's just the nature of the game. But Gary told me he is getting closer. We'll just have to see.

When did Gary Sheffield talk to Bill Fremp? I would've loved to have been a fly on the wall for that conversation.

Tom (NY): Despite all the problems in Yankee-land, we are only 1 game out of first...surprised?

Joe Morgan: No I am not surprised; Boston has struggled of late and have kept the Yankees in it. You need to have Kennedy and Hughes win some game for you though. But looking at their potential they are capable of doing that. But I am not too surprised.

Now this...this seems like Joe. Rambling, semi-coherent sentence fragments. A completely inappropriate semi-colon after the first sentence. Ends exactly the same as it begins, rendering the middle meaningless. I'm going to be optimistic and say that right before this answer, Joe decided he'd had enough of Bill Fremp (Edgewood, KY) and fired him. Got back in the saddle. Pulled a Pat Riley and took day-to-day control of the team. Time will tell.

Joe Morgan: That's all the time I have! Talk to you next week!

Looking forward to it. (ominously) Whoever you are.

Labels: bill fremp, gary sheffield, joe morgan, joechat, wyatt gwyon

It's that time again.

(This chat took place before the most famous steroid user in history hit his most recent HR and then weirdly refused to hug his own son at home plate. Am I the only one who found that creepy?)

Joe Morgan: Congratulations to Barry. Congratulations to A-Rod and Tom Glavine for their great achievements this past week. There will be other guys chasing milestones this year.

Ken Tremendous: True of every year. In every sport. Off to a good start.

Jon (Emerson, NJ): Do you see the Yankees winning the wild card and what roll do you see Giambi filling when he returns?

Joe Morgan: I think the Yankees are like three or four other teams, but can they stay consistent.

KT: A "consistent," right off the bat! Man. That's good stuff. If you are new to the site, look in our archives at every single JoeChat in history and you will find at least one, and usually 40+, uses of the word "consistent."

Joe writing the word "consistent" has become like the Rolling Stones playing "Satisfaction" in concert. It's a classic. You know it's going to happen eventually. When you start to sense that it might be coming, you get excited. And then it happens! I am holding up a lighter right now. And a cell phone with a glowing screen. And chewing off my own arm.

They have a chance of winning, but it doesn't mean they're going to win. Giambi, if he can come back and hit, that left handed bat can help. They can get better if he can come back and produce.

Just so we're clear: the question is about Giambi coming back and whether that would help the Yankees, who are clicking on so many cylinders right now they had to rent a second car. (Their team OPS since the ASB is .953. Team OPS, friends. The entire team is hitting like Albert Pujols. A poster on SoSH recently pointed out that they went through a 2-week run of offensive prowess not equaled since like 1961.)

So anyways, Joe says: "If he comes back and produces, the Yankees will benefit." No mention of what it would do to the line-up, or the defense. No discussion of Andy Phillips, or Wilson Betamit, or who would sit if he DHed (Damon, probably, though how do you sit a $13m CF for very long?).

And as far as being left-handed, the Yankees' current line-up features Damon, Cano, Posada, Matsui, Abreu, Cabrera, and Betamit -- all of whom can hit left-handed. That's seven lefties they can have in the line-up if they so choose.

But thank god they're getting another lefty in there.

I'm already exhausted.

rOb (rs nation): Hey Joe, What'd you think of Schilling's return to the mound last night?

Joe Morgan: The Red Sox are a good team.

KT: Question was about Schilling's performance last night.

They've been able to play well even with him out.

Question was about Schilling's performance last night.

Their starting pitching is the key.

Question was about Schilling's performance last night.

The Yankees have the best lineup, but not the best pitching.

Question was about Schilling's performance last night.

Aaaaaaaaaannnnnnd...that's it.

You didn't watch it, did you? Well, at least you did a good job of covering.

CJ (Farmville, VA): Hey Joe, hope things are well where you are. You think this may finally be the year the Angels win it all?

Joe Morgan: The only thing that concerns me with the Angels it their shortage of power. You can eliminate Vladimir by not pitching to him. He's the only consistent

KT: Cue the band! (Again.)

power hitter on that team. I love watching them play, because they play the way the game is supposed to be played.

They use bats when batting, gloves when fielding, and do not at any time introduce footballs into the field of play or run the bases backwards.

Adam (Chicago, IL): Hey Joe, do the cubs still have a shot at the postseason without soriano?

KT: And before you answer, could you ramble on for a few sentences in a way that creates a like mobius-word-strip of confusing redundancies?

Joe Morgan: Well, the next month will let us know. I thought they were going to get to the postseason with him in there. Milwaukee's still not playing well. I think he was the key to their team, because he's been the addition that's been a big key to the ballclub.

Great. He was the key to their team, because he's been the addition that's been a big key to the ballclub. Perfect. Now go ahead and answer the question.

It's not going to be easy, but they can still make the postseason.

Carl (NY): Hey Joe, watched you gorwin up, you were one of the best ever! How much does switching leagues hurt a player, say like Luis Castillo, who played their entire career in the other league?

KT: Those of you who don't get this reference, see the post below, which recaps a recent broadcast wherein Joe asserted that Luis Castillo, he of 10+ years in Florida, was unfamiliar with Wrigley Field's winds because he had spent his entire career in the AL. Much hay was made of this, both on our site and many others. How will Joe respond?

Joe Morgan: It used to be a big difference in the leagues. The umpires used to be different. The AL was a breaking ball league. The NL was a fastball league. It's changed now because the umpires are all the same, the players switch leagues more.

Ah. He won't even notice. Why should he, I guess?

Jacob (Denver): The Rockies are planning on getting a big time pitcher this offseason, if this happens, do you see them becoming World Series contenders next year? The offense has been amazing, all they need is another ace to complement Francis.

Joe Morgan: I see them being a contender. You have to be a contender for a period of time before you win the World Series. But it depends on what's happening with the baseballs up there. When they were scoring all the runs up there, I didn't think they had a chance. But now they're definitely a better team. But it will take a while for the World Series.

KT: First of all I'm not sure you have to be "a contender" for a "period of time" before you win the WS. Recent history might not bear that out, if you think about it.

Also, read that answer again. As one reviewer wrote of Thomas Pynchon's seminal 1973 masterpiece Gravity's Rainbow (I may be paraphrasing, from memory): "Turgid, dense, opaque, unreadable."

Matt (Grand Rapids): Is Detroit's slump just part of a long season or is there more to it than that? Joe Morgan: It's a combination. It's a long season, you can't stay consistent

KT: "Consistency" three-peat!

for that long. Any time Sheffield's not in the lineup. He's a big subtraction from the lineup. But injuries take their tolls on everybody. If Ortiz went out in Boston, it would change their lineup.

Lineup, lineup, lineup. Consistent consistent consistent. Bleach blurgh blarg.

For the record, an actual non-pablum-dribbling analyst might suggest that the Tigers' post-ASB team ERA of 5.35 and Team WHIP of 1.52 might have more to do with their shoddy play than Gary Sheffield not being in the line-up every day.

SprungOnSports (Long Island): What do you see the Caridinals doing this offseason in terms of the players and management?

Joe Morgan: I don't really think they have that good of a chance this season. But the game's not over until it's over.

KT: The season, however, is probably over on August 7 if you are seven games out of first and have been outscored by one hundred runs. (That's insane, by the way. The Cardinals' Expected Win-Loss is 44-65, and they are only seven games out of first.)

Their starting pitching is not too good. But that's why they play the games. The games still have to be played.

Number one analyst on number one baseball-broadcasting network in the world. Multiple Emmy-winner. Joe.

Mitchell Woulf ( coleman,wisconsin): will A-Rod ever pass Bonds

Joe Morgan: A-Rod has the ability to hit over 756 HRs, but it's a long way from 500 to 756. And Barry says he'll play again next year. It's a long ways from there. Injuries, a lot of things can happen. There are a lot of guys on pace to do it, look at Griffey Jr.

KT: I wouldn't say there are "a lot of guys on pace to do it." In fact, because I am lazy, I will first link this piece by Nate Silver of BP, which goes into great detail about the subject, and second, I will turn this one over to reader John, who did a lot of boring number crunching.

Griffey has 589 and is 37 - he needs 167 for 756

How about guys under 30 w/ over 400 HR? None. How about under 30 with over 300? Also none. So who is "on pace"?

Adam Dunn - 228 @ age 27 - needs 528 or 53/yr for 10 years.
Pujols - 274 @ "27" - 482. Assuming he play until he's "40" he needs 37 HR/yr
Eric Chavez is 29 and has 227 and might not see 300...
Adrian Beltre: 208 @ 28 - 548 to go
Aramis Ramirez: 212 @ 29 - only 544 more!

Why did I pick those guys? Because they're the only active guys under 30 w/ more than 200.

So - let's say you need to have over 100 HR and be under 25 years old?

Congratulations, Miguel Cabrera. You are "a lot of guys."

Christian (Culver City, CA): Hey Joe, with the Dodgers not pulling the trigger on a power hitter at the deadline, you have to believe they are regretting it with their recent slide.

Joe Morgan: Well, they should have regretted it from the beginning. They've always needed a bat. They only have Jeff Kent as a slugger. They should have seen that a long time ago. I don't know why they didn't make a trade. They didn't want to trade their younger players. They'll just have to ride it out. They don't have enough offense to win the west.

KT: Current Standings, NL West, and # of runs scored for each team

1. Arizona - 467
2. San Diego - 477
3. Not-Enough-Offense-to-Win-the-West L.A. Dodgers - 506

I swear, Joe Morgan has never looked anything up in his entire life.

Rick SD: Do you think there is often too much weight and kudos given to individual stat data accomplishments in what is supposed to be a team sport?

Joe Morgan: Finally somebody that understands the game. You're right. Statistics are overrated. What you do to help your team win is what it's all about. These stats like OPS, it doesn't tell you what you do for the team. To my opinion, to help the team, you drive in runs or score runs. That helps the team. That's how you should be judged.

KT: We may need to create a whole second blog called FireThisChatAnswer.

Stats like OPS -- though I would prefer EqA, or WARP, or Win Shares or something -- tell you pretty accurately what you do for the team. No, they do not tell you certain things about hitting cut-off men, or taking an extra base on a single to center against Juan Pierre, or how you backed up a throw to second that prevented the winning run getting to third with one out in the ninth inning of a tie game on the road. But: they tell you a lot about how valuable you are on an everyday basis.

The craziest thing is, Joe isn't even arguing this with the classic "things that don't show up in the box scores" gambit. He is arguing -- and I really can't believe this even as I type it -- that Runs Scored and RBI are more valuable statistics than, for example, OPS.

Never mind the fact that he began the answer by saying that individual stats are overrated, and then proceeded to say that what does matter are two individual stats: runs scored and RBI. Let's just focus on how hilarious it is that with Joe's system, Julio Lugo (49 RBI) is doing more for his team than Placido Polanco, Corey Hart, Hunter Pence, Ryan Garko, or Joe Mauer. Or that Juan Pierre (66 R) is more valuable than Ryan Howard, Derrek Lee, Justin Morneau, Jorge Posada, Vlad Guerrero, or Carlos Pena.

For the last time (not really): runs scored is largely a product of other people on your team. RBI are largely a product of the other people on your team. Stats like EqA, or more crudely, OPS, are individual measures of how you impact your team independent of everyone else on your team. And thus, a better way to judge a player's contributions. This is not fucking rocket science.

Jon (CT): Do the Mets have the pitching to make it through the postseason this year?

Joe Morgan: The Mets pitching was supposedly a problem last year. Not only did they win the division easily, they got to the 7th game of the NLCS. It tells me how good of a manager Willie Randolph is. There aren't any perfect teams. There aren't any teams without weaknesses. The Mets' weakness is their starting pitching. Their lineup is so much better than everyone elses.

Mets 2007 NL Ranks:

Runs: 7th
OPS: 6th

ERA: 2nd
BAA: 1st

Never looks anything up.

Joe Morgan: Let's hope Barry can hit 756 and get this over with, because it is not being represented properly by the media. Let's get it over with and move on.

KT: Here. I'll write the proper press release, as Joe would like it:

SAN FRANCISCO - Aug. 7, 2007
With one swing of the bat, Barry Bonds tonight made controversy-free history by belting his 756th career untainted home run, passing Hank Aaron in a completely natural and positive way.

In a world tainted by scandal, baseball fans everywhere rejoiced at the magnificent achievement by this pillar of the community, who has never done one single thing in his professional or personal life that could possibly cloud this moment with unpleasantness.

"How does it feel?" asked Bonds, in a non-chemically-enhanced post-game press conference. "It feels clean."

Labels: joe morgan, joechat

I have to say, it's nice to be back at ol' Fremulon Ins., Inc. The fluorescent lighting. The thin, ratty, light-gray industrial carpet. The sweet sound of my phone beeping with news of another downturn in our company's pension portfolio.
And, since it's Tuesday, the chance to ignore all of it and focus on another JoeChat.

Joe Morgan: The NL Central, it seems like it is going to go to the last day and maybe further! Let's get started!

Ken Tremendous: Picture that being read by a 13 year-old Russian boy who just learned English. It's funnier now, isn't it?

James (Charlotte): Hey Joe, this is probably the 100th time you see this question today but what do you think of Pedro's performance yesterday? Do you think he'll be good enough to be part of the playoff rotation and get the Mets to the World Series?

KT: Now, let's get off to a good start here, Joe. The question is: for the 100th time (probably), what did you think of Pedro's performance yesterday?

Joe Morgan: The difficult question is whether he will stay in the rotation.

KT: Yes, but the actual question -- the one you are being paid to answer -- is: what did you think of Pedro's performance yesterday?

I really believe that guys like Pedro, or Clemens, have an impact on a team even when they are not at their best.

Was he at his best? You can answer that question by answering the original question: what did you think of Pedro's performance yesterday?

Their toughness and confidence is something a team feeds off. I think Clemens has really helped the Yankees as far as mental toughness even though he is only 6-6.

Yes. Okay. That's an interesting comment about a man who is not Pedro Martinez. Quick refresher: the question on the table: what did you think of Pedro's performance yesterday?

So guys like Pedro and Roger bring more than just pitching. But no one can tell what Pedro will do the rest of the way at this point.

Hey -- I have a question, a propos of nothing. What did you think of Pedro's performance yesterday?

We need to see him pitch a few more games,

Other than the one he pitched yesterday? What did you think of Pedro's performance yesterday?

but I am sure the Mets are very glad to have him back even at less than 100%.

Me too, based on how he pitched yesterday, which was: pretty well.

Andy (Fountain Valley, CA): Joe, the Red Sox, Angels, and Indians seem like virtual locks for the playoffs. Out of those 3, which one would you not want to face in the playoffs?

KT: As you read this answer, imagine an ant walking across a patch of ground, meandering this way and that, possibly in search of crumbs of food, but with no discernible goal, or target, or direction, or coherent sequence of cognitive stimuli.

Joe Morgan: I think Boston is the best team overall, if you are looking at 162 games. I think the Angles would be the toughest team to face in the playoffs. In the playoffs you do not often see a fourth or fifth starter, so when you look at it that way I think the Angels are the toughest team. So I would hate the face the Angels even though Boston is the better team over 162 games. I say this, because if you play the Red Sox in Boston it is really tough to beat them, and you have a better shot on the road. So it will comedown to who has the best record. So if the Angels and Red Sox meet it will comedown to who has homefield.

When you think of the ant, it makes it easier to read, doesn't it? Because there's no pressure for it to follow one continuous line of thought.

Josh W NY, NY: Do you think any National League team has any chance to beat an American League team in the World Series?

Joe Morgan: Any team that gets into the playoffs can win the World Series. The AL will be favored, but look at what happened last year. In a short series anyone can get hot and win; so yes an NL team can win. I think the Mets would have the best chance. I think the Padres would also have a good chance because of their pitching. Remember it is not always the best team that wins, but the team that is playing best at the time.

KT: And then just like that he turns on his brain and lets loose with a straightforward, cogent answer. Why can't they all be like this?

Sean (Boston): Hi Joe, being the greatest second basemen of all time, what did you think of Pedroia's play to save the no-hitter for Buchholz on Saturday?

Joe Morgan: Thanks for the compliment, but let me add "arguably."

This made me laugh out loud. What modesty. It's like in that famous "Five-Timer's Club" SNL cold open, where Tom Hanks addresses Steve Martin as "Mr. Martin," and he replies, "Please -- call me Mr. Steve Martin."

Tim (Pottstown, PA): Will the Phillies make the playoffs?

Joe Morgan: The way the teams are playing now in the NL, you just cannot predict anything.

KT: Unless you are an Emmy-winning analyst who is paid to predict things. Take a shot. There are two choices. Yes? No?

I mean the Phillies sweep the Mets and now lose three out of four with the Mets earning a bunch of games back. You cannot do that and catch the Mets so now they need to focus on the Wild Card. They have a chance, but these teams need to get more consistent and right now none of the Wild Card teams are consistent.

Our old friend "consistent" makes a double-appearance. And "they have a chance" is not a good answer to a yes or no question. Acceptable answers are: yes, no.

Rob (Portland, OR): AS a former player, can you tell people just how tough ti is to get 200 hits in 7 straight seasons? Is Ichiro a hall of famer even if he doesn't get 3,000 hits?

Joe Morgan: I cannot tell you how tough it is because I never got there. But I did play with Pete Rose who reached 200 hits in a season a couple times. The keys are you have to be a good hitter, avoid injuries, and be a guy who does not walk much.

Unless you are the last person who had 7 straight seasons of 200+ hits, Wade Boggs, who averaged 102 walks per year for those seven years. #1 in the league in times on base, 1983-1990. 23rd all-time in walks.

Pete Rose averaged 71 BB for every 162 games, FWIW. Ichiro is at 47.

Jason (DC): Joe -- Will the Tigers be able to find the necessary consistency to sneak into the playoffs again?

Tigers question. "Consistency." I smell a Joe-baiter. If Joe hits us with some Sheffield action, we have a live one.

Joe Morgan: A week ago I thought they would, but now I am not sure, especially with Sheffield out.

Bam.

He was a big part of their offense, and their personality. Gary is a tough guy and when you lose a guy like that it has an effect. I am not sure about them, losing that 7 run lead to the As was a big loss. But again, everyone else is incosistent as well, so it is hard to tell.

Everyone is inconsistent. Gary Sheffield is awesome. I don't know, I'm not sure, I'm not sure. A perfect JoeChat answer. Kudos, Jason from D.C.

Liz ( Big Apple): Do you think Mike Mussina will Retire? Al Leiter said he knew it was time for him to retire- same with David Justice. Wouldn't Moose want to go out on a high note and not like this? Thanks Joe

Joe Morgan: Well the answer to this is only Moose knows.

Yes, but the question was: do you think he will?

He has to look into the mirror and decide that. But he may not be able to go out on a good note if he is finished. The worst thing is if you lose your ability but try to hang in there. I have only seen him pitch on tv so it is hard for me to tell if he can still win or not.

You see, people, TV distorts the results of play significantly. If Moose gives up 19 runs in three starts on TV, well, thats fine and good. But if you were there, in the park, you would have seen something different. You would have seen him gutting out three straight 7IP, 5H, 1-run performances, wriggling out of jams with GIDPs and setting up hitters beautifully with a dastardly melange of off-speed breaking stuff, making his 84-mph FBs look like Verlander's best. TV is a lie. Do not trust it. Always check the box scores. Often times, what appeared to be a 9-2 loss on TV is really a gritty 6-4 win.

He does not have to be as dominant as he was before, he just needs to get people out, and only he knows if he can do that.

Oh -- no, sorry, I know too. Because I watched him on TV. He's got nothing.

KL - NC: Is Jake Peavy the best pitcher in the NL, MLB>

Joe Morgan: At the first half of the season it was Webb, and then Young, and now Peavy. Peavy has been the most consistent, so you can make that argument for the NL.

June 4, 1944. Bonham, TX.

Joe Morgan's Dad: Are you hungry, Baby Joe? Want some food? Okay. There we go. Here comes the airplane! Brrrrrrrrrr--

Baby Joe: Comsistent.

Joe Morgan's Dad: Wha-- honey! Honey come here!

Baby Joe: Comsisterg. Gheeeeee!

Joe Morgan's Mom: What is it? Is everything okay?

Joe Morgan's Dad: Baby Joe said his first word!

Joe Morgan's Mom: What? Oh my God! What was it? Mama? Dada?

Joe Morgan's Dad: No. It was...something else. I couldn't quite--

Baby Joe: Cormsistent.

(beat)

Baby Joe: Consistent.

Joe Morgan's Mom: "Consistent?" What the hell kind of first word is "consistent?"

Joe Morgan's Dad: Was that it? I couldn't quite--

Joe Morgan: Sheffield.

Joe Morgan's Mom: What are you saying, Baby Joe? Mommy can't understand--

Baby Joe: Cormsistent. Sheffield. Big Red Morchines. Concepcion should be in Hall of Farm! Gooooorrrrrrm. Bee bee bee! Slidepiece. Billy Beane wrote "Moneyball."

Joe Morgan's Mom: What is he saying? Who's Billy Beane?

Joe Morgan's Dad: I don't know. But we have a genius on our hands!

JC: What are David Wright's chances for MVP? He's been on an absolute tear the last couple of months...

Joe Morgan: This is a year when the NL MVP is very open. Usually you have a sure guy like Pujols, or Howard last year.

Last year's NL MVP voting:

Howard 388
Pujols 347

Drew, Wisconsin: With the increasing struggle of the Brewers bullpen/starting pitching, do you see any way for them to actually regain the central lead?

Joe Morgan: The difficult part is they have lost their confidence in both areas. Ben Sheets being back may help the starters as far as relieving pressure, but the bullpen is still a problem. It will be difficult. But the Cubs should have a bigger lead than they have, but that is a result of the way Zambrano has struggled. So the Brewers still have a chance, just because the division is so inconsitent.

September 10, 1953. Bonham, TX.

Joe's Teacher: Okay, class, we are going to read our essays on what we did over our summer vacations. Joey? Why don't you go first?

10 Year-Old Joe: This summer I went swimming every day in the pool. I was very consistent in my swimming. I swam consistently from one side to the other. The key to my swimming was consistency. After that I would consistently have lunch with Bobby, my friend. I always had ham and cheese but Bobby was all over the place. Some days he had peanut butter, some days he had a banana, some days he would eat ham like me. Bobby was not very consistent with lunch and that is why I am not friends with him anymore because he was not consistent. Then I would go home and my mom would consistently be there waiting for me and consistently every night would make me dinner and she would read to me consistently from the same book which was called "Are You There God? It's Me, Consistency" and I would sleep for the same amount of time every night in the same PJs. My summer was consistent.

Joe's Teacher: A-plus!

Joe Morgan: I am sure when we talk next week we will still be talking about all the same teams and their chances. And that can be good for the game, but I think we have a lot of average teams competing for poastseason spots, rather than a lot of great teams.

See you next week, you ol' consistent sourpuss!

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