FIRE JOE MORGAN

This hill doesn't look too steep. Let's get a-pushin'!

Joe Morgan: The fact that the Mets lost another game proves to me that the last three outs are sometimes tougher than I've ever thought they were.

English Language: [explodes]

Cole (California): Hey Joe, im a HUGE D'backs fan. By trading for Dunn, did they make a mistaking trading for him since they already have a hitter like him in Mark reynolds?

Hey Cole. KT here. Real quick: Mark Reynolds is nothing like Adam Dunn. Mark Reynolds has a .335 OBP in 223 career games (.324 this year, in 113 games). He has 81 walks in those 223 career games. Adam Dunn has 82 walks so far this year. He has a career OPS of .900. He hits 40 HR a year, every year, like clockwork. He is, and I know Mark Reynolds is young, a far better hitter than Mark Reynolds.

Thanks for your time.

Joe Morgan: They do have a lot of hitters that strike out.

They are also 19th in OPS. Dunn immediately becomes their team leader in OPS. It is a good thing for their team that they got Dunn.

That's one of the problems on that team. But Dunn helps because he will supply power that they also do not have. It will make for a frustrating offense, but he will definitely hit the ball out of the park on a consistent basis.

This marks the first time I have ever supported Joe Morgan using the word "consistent."

Darek (Chicago, Il): Good day Joe. What are the chances of Ken Griffey Jr. playing in 2009 ? Do you see him retiring or returning to Seattle ? He might call it quits if the White sox go on to win the series, but it's a longshot

Joe Morgan: Griffey is in a situation now where he will have to decided as the season goes along.

English Language: [weeps]

He has had some bad stretches, but the last time I talked to him, he told me he felt much better. It's yet to be determined what he's going to end up doing.

KT: I hate to beat a dead horse --

Universe, Speaking from 2006: Too late.

KT: -- but the man asking this question asked you for your opinion on what Ken Griffey, Jr. is going to do next year, and your answer was to say: "It's yet to be determined what he's going to end up doing." Which the guy -- and everyone else -- knew already, which was why he asked for your opinion.

Universe, Speaking from 2006: Dump your financial stocks. They're going to tank.

KT: Now you tell me.

Springfield,Massachussets: will the redsox make it to the world series again

Joe Morgan: Their chances of making it back took a big shot when they traded Manny. I don't think people realize how valuable he was, and how much pressure he took off the other players. Without him hitting behind Big Papi, they will pitch around him in big situations.

KT: There's something poetic about the fact that the night this chat took place, Ortiz hit two 3-R HR in the first inning of a baseball game.

Joe Morgan: I have felt all along that the Cuvs were the best team in the NL,

Me tov.

and the Red Sox in the AL, but now the Angels have proven to be the best by far in the AL. [...]

Angels: 75-44, +63 run differential.
DRays: 72-47, +65
Sox: 70-51, +118

Wins are all that matters, really, but I wouldn't say the Angels are "the best by far."

Mark: Joe, as of right now who is the AL MVP?

Joe Morgan: That's difficult to answer because the season is not over,

KT: The question was "as of right now."

Theoretical Joe Morgan: Right, and it's hard to answer because of what will happen in the future.

KT: But...the question is: right now, who's the MVP. Like, now. At this moment.

TJM: But I can't answer that, because I can't tell the future.

KT: Hang on. Let me try something. What time is it.

TJM: No way to tell.

KT: Because you don't know what time it will be in the future?

TJM: Correct.

KT: Fair enough.

and the last month usually determines that. I keep hearing about Josh Hamilton's great story, but that's not what the MVP award is all about.

Amen. The guy might lead the league in RsBI, but he's also had a ton of RsBI chances, and there's a better candidate on his own team: AL OPS leader Milton Bradley.

Carlos Quentin has kept his team in the mix since Day 1. But there are other guys who should be in the mix. Dustin Pedroia in Boston should get some votes.

Pedroier is having an excellent year. But how about Kevin Youkilis, and his .960 OPS, excellent defense (2 errors last night notwithstanding) and 58 XBH?

Justin Morneau is still the leader of the Twins.

Trent Reznor is still the leader of Nine Inch Nails. Doesn't mean he should be MVP.

Someone like A-Rod could get hot and carry the Yankees to a playoff berth, so he could be in consideration.

Look at the guy's stats and tell me he shouldn't be "in consideration" right now. I don't think he should win, but he is most effing definitely "in consideration."

I would say, as of now, Quentin would get my vote.

Not a bad choice. After all that.

Nick (Brooklyn ,NY): Hey Joe, I just wanted to get your opinion on the Yankees. They've been a little shaky lately since losing Joba, How do you think the last month and a half is going to turn out for them ?

Joe Morgan: They've been shaky in general. The trade that sent Farnsworth has made them unreliable in the 8th inning, and their starting pitching needs to be more consistent, like Mussina has been and Joba was. Their offense hasn't been consistent either. They'll have a good game, a couple of poor games, then another good game--they just haven't been consistent.

Look at how many "consistent"s we have. Here. I'll reprint that, and bold the "consistent"s.

Joe Morgan: They've been shaky in general. The trade that sent Farnsworth has made them consistent in the 8th inning, and their consistent pitching needs to be more consistent, like Consistent has been and Joba consistent. Their consistent hasn't been consistent consistent. They'll have a consistent game, a consistent of consistent consistents, then consistent consistent consistent--consistent consistent consistent't consistent consistent.

Mike (NY,NY): Are the Rays done without Evan Longoria? Do they go out and try something bold like getting Shef or Barry?

Joe Morgan: They definitely need to try to get another hitter. They are shorthanded now, but so are a lot of teams. They have stayed the course, so to speak, without making trades at the deadline that could have brought them another hitter. I hadn't thought of him, but Sheffield would be a great fit for that team.

Joe's Brain: Got in a bunch of "consistents," mentioned Sheff...what else do I have to do today? Oh -- eat. I should eat something.

Nick (Brooklyn, NY): Joe, If you had to make your prediction for who's going to make the AL Wild Card at this point in time, who do you believe it would be?

Joe Morgan: I would pick Boston at this point, but the White Sox and Twins are right there as well. The Rays also have a chance if Boston surges past them.

Joe's Brain: Why do I feel weird?

Joe's Guardian Angel [Tony Perez]: You just made a prediction.

Joe's Brain: Yuck. I hate it. Never again.

Joe Morgan: See you next week, everyone!

Why not, I guess.

Labels: consistency, joe morgan, joechat

Yes, it's true, we haven't been posting much in August. However:

...


I got nothing.

Here's a JoeChat. Short, for some reason, but it counts, people.

Joe Morgan: Seems like the tensions of the pennant races are starting to catch up with teams. Let's get started!

Ken Tremendous: I would have just been so delighted if he had written:

Seems like the tensions of the pennant races are starting to catch up with teams. Let's get retarded!

Sadly, he won't hear that stupid song for about 10 more years, because it will take him that long to buy a tape player, and they no longer release albums on reel-to-reel.

Matt (Philly): Hey Joe, loved seeing you play in Philly. Who do you think wins the NL East?

Joe Morgan: No one can predict that yet,

Anyone can predict that. They might not be correct, but anyone can predict it. Especially someone paid to, essentially, predict things.

but I believe if Rollins starts playing close to his MVP form then the Phillies will win. The Mets play well, but then they get one injured part and they seem to fall apart, but that goes for the Phillies too.

So...that analysis is kind of a wash, then?

But the Phillies have proven they can win on the road, while the Mets and Marlins struggle more on the road. [...]

True...but the Phillies are only 5 games over .500 at home, which seems like it kind of neutralizes the road thing. (They're 3-2 at home since this chat took place, meaning they were only 4 games over .500 when he wrote it.)

Seth (Hershey, PA): Hey Joe. Do the Yankees have any chance of making the playoffs if Joba is out a while? Thanks

Joe Morgan: I think they would still have a chance because I think they would find another starter.

...find him where? Like, there's a starter somewhere in their clubhouse that they didn't know about? Like he's been hiding in Melky Cabrera's locker?

Remember, the Yanklees

Awesome "[sic]". I don't know why that typo tickles me, but it does.

still have a great lineup, and it would have to win games for them...which it can do. If I can put runs on the board, it will make my pitcher more comfortable, so I believe in lineups.

I believe in them, too, Joe. I believe.

The Yankees have a very good lineup.

Multiple Emmys. Multiple.

Todd (Philly): Joe - your best guess - does Milwaukee fold in light of what happened last night? Seems to be a yearly trend (i.e. folding) which must also be concerning....

Joe Morgan: Well what happened last night will not have an affect as to whether they fold or not. Things happen during a season, and that is not the first or last time something like that has happened between teammates. I heard someone say it was a good thing, but I do not think it is ever good to fight your teammates since it divides the clubhouse, as different guys take different sides. But I do not think it will affect whether or not they fold.

I'm going to hand it to Joe on this one. The BrewCrew are undefeated since this chat. Hindsight is 20-13 (like Ted Williams's actual vision), so it's easy to say this, but I think this is the kind of analysis that actually allows the guy to shine. Relatively speaking.

Neal (Providence RI): Now that the Angels have picked up Teixiera do you think they are a great team (like your old Reds teams)? Deep starters, shut down bullpen, hitters that go for power, avg, can bunt...sounds good to me

Joe Morgan's Brain: Stay cool. Stay calm. Just give a regular answer. Then, purchase a plane ticket to whatever "Providence RI" is. Find Neal. Shadow him in a dark trench coat. When he is alone, pounce. Hold a knife to his throat. Show him a team picture of the 1975 Reds. Say something like, "This is a team. These men are champions. No one will ever compare, you son of a bitch." Slit his throat. Change clothes, burn them, get back on the plane, fly home...before anyone knows you're gone.

Joe Morgan: Well I will not compare them to my Reds team, because my Reds team, in my opinion, was an All-Time great and we do not know that about the Angels yet. But I do think the addition makes them the World Series favorite because of everything you said. But they have not won yet, so I cannot compare them on that level.

Joe Morgan's Brain: Well done. Now enact the plan. Wrap this up.

Joe Morgan: Going back to the Brewers incident, I thought Ned Yost did a very good job handling it with the media and keeping it under wraps. Once you start talking, it opens up a can of worms. Sorry for some of the technical problems in the middle of the chat. We'll chat again next week.

Sadly, Neal will not be around to see it.

Labels: joe morgan, joechat

It is one of the rules of blogging that the more individual posts you make, the higher the traffic will be to your blog. Unfortunately for the investors of firejoemorgan.com, (Bear Stearns, Countrywide Home Mortgage, Qwest, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Dynamics, KBR, The National Iranian Oil Company, and Fremulon Insurance), we don't really understand those rules. Thus, I am now going to combine the last like four JoeChats into one monster "Best of July" JoeChat that will be long, dense, and unfun for everyone.

Ready?! Awesome!

Joe Morgan: Last week's interleague play, with the White Sox and the Cubs, was very telling. Home field means a lot; both teams were much more comfortable at home. I never thought home field was such a big deal when it came to good teams, but I found out differently.

I'm not going to make it. I'll never get through the marathon JoeChat. Go on without me. Tell my wife I love her.

Frank (Rockmart, GA): Do you think the NL East is wide open, or will the Phillies find some consistency soon and begin to pull away from the pack?

Since right away I can tell everyone ignored my suggestion to stop JoeBaiting, let's go with the flow and count the JoeBaits. This "consistency" is: 1.

Joe Morgan: I think it is wide open because all the team have weaknesses.

No perfect teams. Teams have weaknesses. 1975. Tony Perez. There: I just gave you all the answers you will find in this JoeChat.

The Phillies starting pitching needs help, as does the Mets' pitching and they need consistent offense as well. And the Braves I just cannot read; they lose close games and are not consistent.

It's amazing, isn't it, folks? We're like 4 years in to this grand experiment we call "JoeChats," and the issues we face are the exact same ones we faced in 2005. Consistency, indeed.

It is wide open and the team that plays well on the road will win it. The Marlins are a group of young guys, who is they get hot will be able to stay on a streak longer than the other team because they are so young.

[yikes]

Frank : The home team in the Rays-Red Sox series has consistently come out on top.

2.

Do you look for that trend too continue? Are the Rays going to the World Series?

Joe Morgan: I think it will continue. Like I said, it seems like home field has become more and more important. It seems like teams just play better at home. [...]

A fact somehow unique to baseball in 2008.

Brad(NM): Hey Joe..not many are talking about what a great season Oakland's having due to the success of the Rays and Cards and such. Do you give them a chance at winning the West? Where does their pitching staff rank in the league?

Joe Morgan: They have a chance, because when you look at the Angels their offense is down.

Side note: you know what's amazing? The Angels and A's, three weeks after Joe wrote this, have almost the exact same run differential, and the Angels are 12 games up. The Cubbies are +72 over the Brewcrew and they're tied. Pretty incredible.

If they had better offense they would be farther ahead at this point.

A fact somehow unique to the 2008 Angels, apparently.

So I think the A's have a great shot at winning the West, unless the Angels start hitting.

Angels: still not hitting that well. A's: almost no chance at winning the West.

You are right that the A's are flying under the radar, and that may be because the Rays have a bit of a better team and are leading their division. But the A's have the tools to get it done.

Hindsight = fun.

Kent Remendeaux (Oscenns City):

I'm flattered.

Hi Joe, love your work. Can Delmon Young start hitting more consistently

3.

and help the Twins overtake the White Sox and hold off the Tigers?

Joe Morgan: I have to admit I am shocked at his lack of power and production. Usually when a guys [sic] has a good first year you expect them [sic] to get better. Of course he had to adjust, in leaving Tampa, but we are far enough into the season that he should be coming around. There is something missing there right now. I still think he is one of the next stars of the AL, but I thought he would be further along at this point.

PECOTA's 50th percentile had Young at .288/.323/.445. 15 HR and 32 2B. Projected totals: .297/.338/.400. 6 HR, 29 2B. So, his HR numbers are down, but otherwise it's pretty close. And remember: he's 22.

The Twins will need him if they are to catch the White Sox. As far as the Tigers, they are on a thin rope, because if they have another bad stretch they are finished.

Can you be "on" a "thin rope?" You can be on a tightrope, and you can be on thin ice. I'm not sure you can be on a thin rope.

I am watching Gladiator right now. The accent work in this Oscar™-winning movie is truly terrible. Joaquin Phoenix sounds like a geeky high school kid reciting Monty Python sketches.

Joe Morgan: That is all the time I have for today. Thank you for all the questions. We'll chat again next week.

No. You will chat with me again right fucking now.

Joe Morgan: I think the addition of CC Sabathia to the Brewers will be the big difference-maker in the NL Central. If you're the Cubs, you need to fear the Brewers more than anyone else in that division. They may need to make a move in response.

Kudos to Big Joe on this one. Unless the Harden trade had already happened, and he just hadn't heard about it.

Blueberry Johnson (NY): Hey Joe! Any opinions on allstar selections? Biggest snubs?

I am going to label "Blueberry Johnson" JoeBait #4, because: Blueberry Johnson?!

Joe Morgan: I would say there are a few things that jump out at me. Ian Kinsler probably deserves to start over Pedroia, though Perdroia has had an excellent hot streak recently. [...]

"Perdroia?" It's pronounced: "Pedroierr."

Sam (Lake Bluff, IL): Joe, how many more wins does Sabathia give the Brewers? I know he was the biggest difference maker on the market, but how much of a difference does he really make in the standings?

Joe Morgan: It's hard to say that he'll make a difference of, say, ten games, because even if he goes 10-0, someone starting in his spot would have won at least a few of those games. I think his advantage is psychological--he lets the Brewers know that they can match up pitcher for pitcher with anyone. It energizes the whole Brewer franchise.

He also strikes people out and pitches well. That's another advantage he gives the Brewers. Seriously -- how did this movie win an Oscar? It's like a community theater Shakespeare play with one good actor and decent special effects.

Steve (New York): Joe, you did the Yankee game last Sunday, what were your thoughts on Joba Chamberlain?

Joe Morgan: He threw the ball well. I saw a guy who was quickly gaining major league starting experience. You have to remember, the Red Sox make hitting adjustments well, and aside from that one bad inning, he controlled them very well.

Questions for learning:

1. According to the text, how did Joba Chamberlain throw the ball?

(A. "Well.")

2. How do the Red Sox make hitting adjustements?

(A. "Well.")

3. How did Joba Chamberlain, aside from one bad inning, control the Red Sox?

(A. "Well.")

Corey: (Philadelphia, PA): Joe: What do you think of the Braves decision to put Francoeur in AA for a couple of games? Do you think Francoeur deserved the benefit of the doubt and just try to fix it at the big league level, rather than just being demoted that quickly?

Joe Morgan: I cannot go along with that decision to send him to the minor leagues. Jeff Francouer lives in that area,

Not a consideration.

has played well for that team for the last three years,

Kind of a consideration.

and drove in a hundred runs last year.

Maybe a consideration, in that he has been a pretty good hitter, but RsBI isn't maybe the best way to show that.

You have guys like Ryan Howard and David Ortiz batting under .200 for much of the season.

The last time Ortiz was under .200 was May 2. He followed that up with a month of 1.026 OPS. On the day he was sent down, Francoeur had a .287 OBP and was 7-his last-52. And he's 24. Sending him down to work on his swing wasn't an insane idea.

I did not like the idea of doing that because it messes with a guy psychologically. You have a hitting instructor in the big leagues--work it out with him!

You also have the minor leagues. Where players can practice baseball without harming the part of the organization that matters.

Andy (St. Louis): Joe, you said the race between the Cubs and Brewers is going to be great to watch, but have you forgotten about the Cardinals?! They are resilient and find ways to win. Ankiel is hot, Pujols is back, and the starting pitching has been excellent compared to original expectations. Do you think they have any chance of contending for the division crown or wild card?

Joe Morgan: You're right, the Cardinals are in that mix. [blah blah blah] We're talking about Sabathia, but if he gets hot and starts hitting like he did last year, that will only give the Brewers yet another shot in the arm.

I am assuming that he is saying that if Sabathia starts hitting "like he did last year," that will help the Brewers. For the record, last year, in a very telling sample size of 3 AB, Sabathia had 2 hits, for a very significant .667 BA. These are important facts that totally matter due to their significance in terms of mathematics, and are highly predictive because of how significant they are.

Three data points is only two more than 1, which is the absolute minimum number of data points a guy can have. (For the ever-growing record, CC is .264/.278/.472 in 53 career AB, which is pretty darned good for a pitcher, and pretty darned irrelevant in terms of the Brewers' chances this year.)

Gladiator is over and I am now watching Airplane II, which -- no joke -- has better acting than Gladiator.

Ben Morgan (Omaha, NE): Joe, as a White Sox fan I'm looking over my shoulder at the Twins and beginning to be a little worried. For a while I kept myself calm by convincing myself they weren't for real and they would cool off but how long can I use this defense mechanism? I think the Sox are for real but I'm starting to think this is more than just a hot streak for Minnesota. Thoughts?

The Twins are kind of a smoke-and-mirrors team. They're in the middle of the pack of most offensive and pitching categories, they're dead last in the AL in HR, and are only +21 in run differential. They've started to come back down to earth, predictably, since this chat took place, going 3-6 in their last nine games. Detroit has a better run differential, but are 4 games behind the Twinkies -- my guess is, as time goes on, here, Minnesota idles or fades, and Detroit is the team challenging Chicago for the division.

Joe's guess is: Ron Gardenhire is awesome and every team could win but who knows but we'll see but if things go wrong for a team then they won't win but maybe Chicago?

Joe Morgan: I agree, you should give Minnesota a lot of credit, especially Ron Gardenhire, the manager. He knows how to handle young players and they play hard for him. When I watched Minnesota play last night against Boston, I realized that this team is for real. It's going to go down to the wire with the White Sox and Twins. Detroit could be in it, but if anything goes wrong, they are finished. But I still like Chicago to win the division.

See?

Joe Morgan: In closing, I have never fel that the All-Star game winners should get home field advantage in the Series.

I agree.

It's an exhibition and not fair to the team in the Series.

Amen.

The best way to do it is to alternate it year by year.

...sorry?

That's the best way to do it? Randomly-declared oscillation?

Not, you know, who had the best record? Which might make teams play hard all the way through the end of the season? Which might make otherwise meaningless games in late September incredibly meaningful? Which means the greatest prize would meritocratically be awarded to the team who performed the best?

The best way to do it is to ignore the results of the sport you are playing in favor of a metronomic inevitability?

'kay.

This is more of a made for TV thing, and yet we still ended up with a tie once. I never lost an All-Star game when I was playing, so I don't think that should be the way you judge home-field advantage.

Yorps. This last part doesn't even make sense.

Let's keep it rolling!!!!!

Buzzmaster: We've got Joe!

Still!

Jacob (FL): Joe, you gotta feel for Dan Uggla after his performance last night. Could that affect him for the rest of the season?

Uggla since the break: 1-25, for a tidy .332 OPS. This is almost certainly the result of making those errors (which ended up not affecting the outcome of the game in any way) and not a random 25-AB fluctuation in the middle of the season. Because MLB players are frail little babies who never recover from things like non-game-affecting errors in stupid exhibition contests.

Joe Morgan: I definitely feel for him. I certainly hope it does not affect him, but we (meaning fans and media) will have an effect on how he handles the rest of the season. If we continue to bring it up and talk about it, it will be tough for him to deal with. The last error was a tough ball, as it jumped up at him, but it's obvious he was nervous out there, and understandably. It showed in his play.

I don't know. Maybe he was nervous. But maybe he just had a shitty night. He's never been Orlando Hudson out there at second. Give him a break.

These are now "comments" instead of "jokes." I think I'm dehydrated. I need a Joe I.V.

Chris. P (NY): What are the Chances of Bonds being a Yankee? Cashmen could of said No but he didnt. How well can Bonds do at Yankee Stadium?

I hate to be "this guy," but it delights me how many dumbdumb errors Chris P. (NY) made. He doesn't even know how to spell the name of his own GM. Because the Yankees are about to swarm all over everyone and win the East as Manny Ramirez claims that the Red Sox have never respected him and that they should give him $40m more when he asks out of a game against the Yankees in late July with a mysterious knee ailment, I am going to exact petty revenge by reprinting Chris. P (NY)'s question with [sic]s.

Chris. [sic] P [sic] (NY): What are the Chances [sic] of Bonds being [sic] a Yankee? Cashmen [sic] could of [sic] said No [sic] but he didnt [sic]. How well can [sic] Bonds do at Yankee Stadium?

God, that felt good.

Joe Morgan: As great a player as he has been, you can't say how well he would do this year because he hasn't had spring training, hasn't had live pitching to hit against, and hasn't played period. [...] I'm not sure why Barry wants to play, since playing less than half a season would make him a hired gun, and his place in the history of the game is better than a hired gun.

This...this is why we do what we do.

Barry Bonds shouldn't come back this year...because it would tarnish his reputation?

Barry Bonds.

Being a "hired gun" would tarnish.

his repu.

tation.

Here are things that could tarnish Barry Bonds's reputation, at this point:

1. Committing double murder of Tom Brokaw and Dame Judi Dench
2. Defecting to Afghanistan, joining Taliban, leading Afghan baseball team to Gold medal over American team in Beijing
3. Running high-end dog fighting ring where the dog fights take place on Princess Diana's grave
4. Inventing time travel but instead of traveling back in time to kill Hitler using it to go back to 1989 in order to start taking steroids earlier than he originally did

Things that will not make a motherfletching dent in Barry Bonds's reputation:

1. Being labeled a "hired gun" by playing for the Yankees

Joe Morgan: I think Clint Hurdle and Terry Francona managed the game very well last night, trying to win the ballgame instead of just making sure the players got in. Winning should be the first priority. Thanks a lot, everyone!

Thank you! Let's keep going!!!!

Andy (Grand Rapids, MI): Do you think the Tiger's can still win the Division?

Joe Morgan: Well they can still win it but they cannot have anymore 4-5 games losing streaks. They are on a thin line right now.

Can you be "on a thin line?" You can be on thin ice, you can be on a tightrope, there can be a thin line between love and hate, there can be a thin blue line or a thin red line, you can be on the red line, the orange line, the green line, or the blue line, but I'm not sure you can be "on a thin line."

The Marlins are leading the Cubbies 6-5 in the 6th (it is now the next day -- that's how long this JoeChatMarathon is) and Alfonso Soriano just popped up to second after a leadof single, shattering his bat so violently and horrifyingly I was sure all eight Marlins were going to be found dead with maple spikes in their foreheads. Something should maybe be done about these bats.

Blueberry Johnson (NY): Joe, Texas has been outscored by 33 runs this year. Yet, they are still have a .520 winning percentage. How are they doing it?

Joe Morgan: I think run differential is just a stat that does not mean a lot. Look at what the Dbacks did last year. Run differential is a deceptive stat.

First of all, a hearty "Welcome Back!!!" to Blueberry Johnson. How have you been, man? Great to hear from you again. I was not sure you were going to ask another question, since you are a fictional character from a children's story.

Second of all: Yes, good work, a stat that shows you how many runs you have scored versus how many runs you have allowed does not mean a lot. You know what does mean a lot? Team triples. If your team is tripling a lot, that means your guys are hustling, and you will win a lot. Just ask Arizona and San Francisco!

By no means look at run differential. If you did, you would see that the divisional leaders in run differential are all either in first place or within 1.5 games of first place, except for Oakland. Don't look at last year, either, because you'll accidentally learn that 4 division winners led their division in run differential. The Phillies were only 6 behind the Braves, and Arizona pulled one of the flukiest seasons ever (-20), somehow finishing ahead of the +101 Rockies, who then went to the World Series.

Just because there are quirks and occasional exceptions doesn't mean a stat is "deceptive." You don't have to be a genius to understand that the number of runs a team scores, and the number of runs it allows, is probably a pretty good indicator of how good the team is and how well it has played.

DLee just went yard to tie it up. That guy is awesome.

Fred (Montgomery Village): Joe, The Phillies have been doing pretty good without everyone hitting at the same time (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Burrell). How good will this team be once they all hit at the same time?

Joe Morgan: Well we are deep into the the season and they all hit well to get the lead and now they are not all hitting. Now they may not all start hitting at the same time, and even if they do they still need better pitching and bullpen support.

Opposite of analysis. The exact opposite of analysis. The platonic ideal of "nothing."

Jim Edmonds just tried to bunt a guy to second, in a suddenly-tie-game in the seventh with nobody out and DeRosa and Fukudome behind him. Jim Edmonds, in his career, has 7584 total plate appearances and 10 sac bunts. And a .933 OPS in his last 50 games. Good call, Lou.

DeRosa walks, Fuku pops up. If the Cubbies don't take the lead here, you'll know why.

Jordan (Slinger, WI): Joe: The Brewers are in the midst of a series with St. Louis right now, and have a series with the Cubs at the end of the month. Come August, who will be on top of the division?

Joe Morgan: I still think the team that is on top now, is still the team that will be on top later. The Cubs may be able to gain a few games here with the Brewers and Cards playing each other now. But when the Cubs are on the road they are not near the best team in the NL. It is a three team race, and will be right down to the wire. It is really hard to tell. Two weeks ago I thought it would be the Brewers, but teams go through spells.

It's time for the game where we take a 100-word answer from Joe and boil it down to its essence.

Jordan: Who wins the Central?
Joe: One of the teams in the Central.

SprungOnSporks (Longer Island): The Twins are 23-9 in their last 32 games. Can they keep it up and catch the ChiSox?

Joe Morgan: Well they are only a half game behind, so I think they already caught them in some ways. But it will be very hard to keep playing that type of baseball, winning 23 out of 32. I think they can win the division, but everyone in the division is looking back at Detroit at this point. I think it is going to come down to a three-team race as the season comes to a close.

"SprungOnSporks" has to be a JoeBait, or a shout-out, or something, and I appreciate it. Also:

Q. Who wins the A.L. Central?
A. One of the teams. Same as the N.L. Central.

Wild pitch to Daryle Ward. Both runners move up. Now they're walking Ward to load the bases. Wouldn't you love to have that out back, Lou?

Brian (Chicago): Do you think Francisco Liriano should be brought up, or do you think it will hurt the chemistry the Twins have created?

Joe Morgan: It will not hurt the chemistry because he is a pitcher. [...]

He's also quite good, and I haven't heard anything about how he's a terrible dude or anything, and also: you seriously wouldn't bring an awesome starting pitcher up because of completely unfounded "chemistry" concerns, Brian? You think Livan Hernandez is going to keep winning games with a 1.60 WHIP and the league hitting .332 against him? Really?

Mike Fontenot's bases-clearing double gets Jim Edmonds stupid bunt attempt off the hook. Reason and logic take another one on the chin.

Joe Morgan: I think we are going to see a lot of close races here in the second half of the season that come down to the very end. A lot of teams can win and many of these races will come down to which team gets hot at the right time.

Opposite of good.

Catch your breath everyone. We're done.

Labels: airplane ii, all-star game, barry bonds, blueberry johnson, bunting, gladiator, jim edmonds, joechat, joechat marathon, platonic ideal of "nothing", run differential, twins

This has been a weird JoeChat Year. I don't get these things anymore. I don't know who's speaking, who's typing, who's JoeBaiting, who's who. There isn't even the usual BuzzMaster intro this time, nor any opening salvo from The Great One. We just jump right in.

sean jacksonville,fl: you agree that the reds should trade grifey?

Joe Morgan: That is a tough question for me because I was a Red when he was a little kid in the clubhouse and his dream was ro play for the Reds. I think that dream has not lived up to expectations, so I think they maybe should trade him to a contander so he has chance to play for a World Series. But is has to be mutual; Griffey has to want it and the Reds have to want it.

The Reds are 12 games behind Chicago and have been outscored by 58 runs. Ken Grifey [sic] is old and expensive. Seems like maybe trading him would benefit the team going forward. But: Joe was on the Reds when Griffey was a kid and Griffey's dream was ro [sic] play for the Reds someday. So...there's that.

And as for your last sentence, this is not analysis. Griffey has a no-trade clause. So, yes, by CBA rule, Griffey has to want it, and by virtue of the way businesses work, the Reds have to want it. Well done.

sean (levittown, PA): I think the Phillies should get another starting pitcher like C.C. Sabathia. What do you think?

This is what is known in the on-line chat world as: "a softball."

Joe Morgan: Well I think every team needs another starting pitcher, it's not like the Phillies are the only ones. But they do need anothe rpitchers. Starting piutching is still the No. 1 commoodity in the game and there is still a shortage of top-notch starting pitching in MLB.

Look at these [sic]s and tell me I'm not getting put on. "But they do need anothe rpitchers?!" Are you kidding me? Starting "piutching?" "Commoodity?" I'm being set up.

On a side note, I (still) simply can't believe how little analysis Joe gives in these things. The guy asks if the Phillies should try to trade for C.C. Sabathia. Joe responds that everyone needs pitching, a dusty old aphorism akin to saying "baseball is a game that requires human players," and offers exactly zero in terms of (a) whom they might trade for instead or (b) whom they might offer for him or (c) where else CC might go or (d) any individual subject x where x = (any subject possible to analyze in the known universe)(the sum of all of the billions of observations made about the game of baseball since it was invented by Abner Doubleday as he and Francis Scott Key launched a sneak attack against their own men at the battle of Fort Sumter) [sic].

Joe Chicago: If the white sox do make a trade what and who should they go for?

Joe Morgan: They need more consistent hitting.

ChiSox: 393 runs, 7th in all MLB.

Dye is swinging the bat well, as is Crede, but everyone else has been streaky. Thome jhas not been concistent and neither was Konerko before he got hurt. That is what Ozzie went off about, the incosistent offense. They need offense.

Red alert people. Red. Effing. Alert.

"concistent" and "incosistent" back to back.

Something is happening. And it's not that trees and plants are releasing a neurotoxin into the air.

There are three possibilities here, as I see it.

1. This is just business as usual at JoeChat headquarters.

2. The people who operate the JoeChat 9000 Lifelike SimulTron Turing Machine are having some fun with us here at FJM, since they know how much we like the repetition and misspellings of "consistent."

3. Bill Fremp is being held captive at JoeChat headquarters and is trying to signal that he needs help.

We will monitor the situation closely.

Matt (Oconomowoc): Ben Sheets has been consistently great this year. Do you think the Brewers will be able to lock him up long term?

Joe Morgan: It depends on what they want to spend, and if they are worried about the inuuries. But last night he looked great. Because of injuries, he has not been able to come close to 20 wins, and he has had physical problems, so it comes down to how confident they are about hi health. But having said that, they need to keep him, because when healthy he is a great pitcher.

If this is actually just Joe, isn't it amazing that he never catches on when 5-10 people bait him every week by using "consistent" in their questions?

Speaking of which...we got several emails from readers suggesting that all the JoeBaiting may be having a deleterious effect on the quality of the actual chats. I hate to tell anyone how to live his or her life, but it is possible, I think, that we should all cool it on the baiting, the better to observe Joe in his natural habitat, Meerkat Manor-style. I leave it to you to decide.

Adam (Toledo): With the Tigers playing as well as they are and starting to get their pitching turned around do you think they can catch and pass the Twins and put pressure on the White Sox before the All-Star Break?

Joe Morgan: Well I am not sure how quickly they can do it becaused they dug a deep hole. But I think they can win the division, because they can win 8-10 ball games in a row with that pitching a hitting. The Twins and Sox have kind of waited for them, and that has given them the chance to stay in the race depsite their horrible start. But they need to be more consistent...

Come on. This is insane.

they have been shut out more than any other team in the majors, and yet they can also score 19 runs in a game. So they need consistency.

I now am 90% sure someone is toying with me.

Jacob (Brooklyn): The AL is beating up on the NL in interleague again. Why do you think the gap between the two leagues continues to be so significant?

Joe Morgan: Well for a while there the AL brought in all the young stars, and now the NL is starting to do it. But now those young AL players are maturing and have become great players. Yes the AL is the better league, but these things happen in cycles, and it may change in 5 years. But I do think on a daily basis the pitching and hitting is consistenyl better in the AL.

"Consistenyl" should be the name of a prescription drug you can take to make yourself more consistent.

Eric (NYC): What's wrong with David Wright? Is Willie's absence hurting his consistency?

For the record, if 100 people in a row asked me questions using the same word, I would suspect something were amiss.

Joe Morgan: Well Willie has not been gone that long. I know Wright was a big fan of his and he felt that Willie heleped him become a big leaguer, but David is a strong individual and has got over Willie's absence. There is no consistency in the lineup and that changes his perspective and puts pressure on him. Of the top 4 hitters, he is the only consistent one, and I think that has put extra pressure on him.

If I answered each of those 100 questions using the same word that the questioners had used -- often using it twice in the same answer -- I would resign to spend more time with my family.

Kevin (Boston): Schilling a hall of famer, Joe?

Joe Morgan: I do not like talking about it since I am invovled with the Hall of Fame,

I just tried to play "invovled" in Scrabulous and it claimed it isn't a word. But that program is super buggy. Also, if Joe is true to form, he will follow up his "I can't discuss the HOF" with a lengthy discussion of the HOF.

but I will say that there are pitchers with more wins than him and they are not in. But the game is different now, and people look at pitchers differenly It's a tough call, but 216 wins usually is not enough, and it is a shame he is injured because he would have gotten more wins.

Not quite true to form, I guess. Also, I literally cannot wait for the pro/con articles about Schilling's candidacy in five years. It's going to be wonderful. I don't even know if this blog will exist, still, but if it has gone fallow we might have to revive it just for that discussion.

Also: wins are stupid.

Chris (London, UK): What's your take on the Mariners this season? Are they underperforming, or were they always going to be this bad?

Joe Morgan: I think they are underperforming and a lot of it could be injuries and the bad start which cost them their cofidence.

I just got 102 points on Scrabulous with "cofidence."

I thought they were going to be in it in the West. I think their confidence has eroded due to the bad start and the many tough losses they have suffered in the proccess.

Reasons Cited So Far For Mariners' Underperformance:

1. Injuries
2. Bad start
3. Loss of cofidence from bad start
4. Loss of confidence due to bad start
5. Losses

I thought they were a better team than this and the bad luck continues with the Hernadez injury.

And we come back all the way around to #1 with:

6. Injuries.

The end.

Labels: Consistenyl™, hall of fame, joe morgan, joechat

Joe pulls me back in.

Joe Morgan: I see where the Mets fired Randolph, I guess that's the end of the soap opera. Let's see how the players respond.

"I see where the Mets fired Randolph?" Like...you just read about it, right this second?

Brian (San Francisco, CA): The Angels are 14 games over .500 but they have scored just one more run than they have allowed this season. Do you think they are the most lucky, overrated team in the league? Or are they just consistently clutch in close games?

Excellent JoeBaiting. You're at the top of the JoeBaiting game. I am just lucky to watch these guys JoeBait.

Joe Morgan: I think last year the D-Backs had a same situation and they won their division. Their pitching is good and once they get the lead they keep it. I don't think their lucky. [...]

First of all, [sic] on "their," and also (shame on you). I don't demand that everyone be a member of the Militant Grammarians of Massachusetts, but can we all as a nation work a little harder to get fucking "they're/their/there" right? It's not hard, people. Do it for the children.

Second of all: here's the thing, though, man -- they are lucky. By definition, they are lucky. We're like halfway through the year, about, so if they have a dead even RS/RA and are 14 games over .500, they are probably getting pretty lucky. Yes, yes -- not the biggest sample size, and the team has good pitching, but 14 games over your pyth* at this point? That's luck, to some degree, and it will probably even out a little going forward.

Matt Stuart, FL: What was your most memorable game and hit

Joe Morgan: I played in a lot of great situations so it's hard to answer. But the game winning hit in the 1975 World Series and my first ever major league hit stands out.

Those two things stands out for you? Those two moments are the ones that stands out?

I'm ornery. I think it was watching Spain and Italy flop around all night while the far-more-fun Dutch were drinking Grolsch Oud Bruin on their plane back to Amsterdam and the English team stubbornly continued to not have qualified.

JB (Wash DC): What is your opinion on replay? I am okay with HR calls if handled in a timely manner, but am worried that this could lead to foul line calls or tag plays at the plate some day, and wouldn't that really be a shame for the game?!

Joe Morgan: They are assuming that the only game changing play in the HR. [...]

[sic] again, and also, no theeyir not. Threiyr trying to comfort old angry traditionalists like you by easing the system into play gradually, the way you keep a goldfish inside the plastic bag and drop the whole bag into his new bowl so that the water temperatures can slowly merge. Because God forbid we should have a simple, quick, easy-to-use technology that could prevent the vicissitudes of well-intentioned human observation from creating horrifying sporting injustices.

Ten Kremen (Dous, Neb.): Hey Joe!

Flattering. Also: the worst fake name in history. Truly, wonderfully awful. I applaud you. I would have gone with "Neutered Monks." "Drunken Emotes" and "Undermost Knee" aren't bad.

Love your analysis on Sunday Nights. I was just wondering how much you think Gary Sheffield's expected return will help the Tigers.

Man. You're just running right at it, JoeBait-wise, aren't you, there, Ten.

Joe Morgan: The Tigers are starting to play well, but I believe that Sheffield's presence on the field will upliftthe team.

Predictable.

Dan (Long Island, NY): Hey Joe, obviously the big headline is Willie Randolph being fired. Why have the Mets handled this whole situation poorly? They waited way too long to pull the trigger and when they finally follow through with this, they make the decision at 3:14 AM? Shed some light on this for us.

Joe Morgan: I gree that they didn't handle the situation well. I don't understand their thinking and to do it after a win, I just don't get it.

I gree, too, man. Weird. Although, perhaps I'm crazy, but maybe they weren't thinking that they would fire him based on that night's game's outcome. Maybe -- and I could be wrong -- they had made up their mind already, based on his entire run as manager, and the outcome of that particular game was irrelevant.

The Mets' owners are doofuses, and the 3 AM press release was bizarre, but let's just all take a step back and remember the 7 game lead with 17 to play, as well as the $780m payroll and the .500 record.

Andrew from Bloomington, IL: Yo, Joe: how do you think the starting pitching woes of the Reds affects the team's consistency? Is their pitching too young to be consistent enough to maintain any sustained success?

Consistent JoeBaiting from Andrew. Is there anyone in these chats who unironically wants an answer from Joe Morgan?

Joe Morgan: They have some young pitchers that have pitched well. If they can add Homer to the list of pitchers who can step up, then they will be good, The Reds have a shot at being a good team.

If you asked Joe if the man's name is Homer Bailey or Bailey Homer...he would have a 50/50 chance of guessing correctly.

brian (Normal IL): Ryan Howard has had many highs and lows. What can he do to improve his consistency?

Seriously. Anyone? Anyone at all actually want an answer from this man?

Joe Morgan: That has to come from Ryan Howard. He has to figure out why he has been so inconsistent. He has to stay away from over swinging and swinging and bad pitches. They may not be the only answer. He has to figure it out for himself, it's not something that somebody can tell you.

Ryan Howard has a miserable April, an awesome May, and is having an "eh" June. He also has 19 HR. I'll take my chances, if I'm the Phillies, that he consistently consistenifies himself consistently over the next few consistences (months). He's 28 and has a .972 career OPS. He's awesome. Everything is going to be fine.

Michael (MA): Joe, it sure seems like they are fewer great players than there were not too long ago, but do you agree that there aren't any consistently great teams like there were when you played?

This is insane. There is not one person in this chat who just wants to ask Joe a question. Why do these even exist?

Joe Morgan: Let's not talk about when I played.

KT: [has disbelief-induced heart attack]

I thought the Red Sox could be a great team this year, but they haven't played great on the road. To be great, you have to win at home as well as at home. Boston is the only team that I can see being a great team once they start winning on the road.

...Why can't you see the Cubs being great, if you're allowed to imagine what it will be like when [Team X] "starts winning on the road?" The Cubs are 20 games over .500 and are plus-112 in runs scored. So, even though thzeyir 16-20 on the road...if they started winning on the road...they'd be "great," no?

Corey (Philadelphia, PA): Joe: Who is the one player in the game today that you would say is most comparable to how you played the game?

Joe Morgan: That's hard. It was a different game when I played, so I can't really come up with one person. But their are a lot of really good second basemen playing the game at this time.

[sic] again, obviously, on "their," but also: what is going on here, I wonder? Is he just too self-aggrandizing to name one person who is even remotely close to in his league? Can he not pull Chase Utley's name (or Uggla's, or Cano's [!]) out of his hat? Can't he just name his favorite player? Beltran? Sheffeld? Hanley Ramirez? Dustin Pedroia? Joe Sambito? Anyone?

For like three years now I've been needlessly and fruitlessly pointing out how often Joe Morgan just flat refuses to answer a question posed to him through an on-line question-and-answer forum that he at some point in his life clearly agreed to participate in and yet seems to resist with every fiber of his being. Now he is literally asked, "Which player is most like you?" and he doesn't even give a name.

These chats are officially pointless, in the most hard-core existentialist way.

chad rochester ny : joe, do u think the yanks can pull it out and make the playoffs without wang, and if so who do u think will step up

Joe Morgan: Before Wong got hurt,

Really?

The guy's name was spelled correctly in the line right above where you typed that.

Also, you don't just know his name? You're a premiere baseball analyst and you have broadcast 20000 Yankees games and he's the best pitcher on their team, and you don't know how to spell his 4-letter last name?

Really?

Really.

Okay. Keep going.

I did believe that they Yanks could make the playoffs. Without him, I don't know if the Yanks can win the AL East. I don't know who can step up, because if they haven't done it already, I don't know if they ever will.

Andy Pettitte has thrown like 17 consecutive scoreless innings. Mussina is winning games like it's 1995. Someone named Dan Giese, which is uncomfortably close to Don Geiss, just won the other day. Seems like dudes are stepping up, you drama queen.

Bryan (bloomington IL): Joe congrats on the doctorate. You have been role model of consistency for years. Who do you like to come out of the NL?

Not. One. Sincere. Chatter.

Joe Morgan: Thank you. I think the Cubs are the best team in the NL. [...]

What told you that? Their best-in-baseball record? Or their best-in-baseball run differential? Or, like, women's intuition?

Julio (Santo Domingo, DR): Hi Joe. What´s your take about Chipper Jones chase to .400? It seem pretty remarkable, after all the injuries that he has had and doing it past his prime.

We literally have to leave the country to find a person who sincerely wants to chat with this man.

Joe Morgan: I think it's great. Being a switch hitter gives him an edge. I think he's doing this late because he's a smarter hitter. As you get older you learn more and he has learned more about his swing and it has made him a better hitter.

Or: it's a little bit of a statistical fluke for a great hitter after a half-season of a .400 BABIP.

But, no, you're right, it's probably that he's old. That makes CrazySense™.

Joe (NYC): Hi Joe, What do you think will happen with CC? Do you think Cash will pull the trigger (and at what cost) after passing on Johan?

Joe Morgan: He starting to pitch well but I think he will test the free agent market. The Yanks are looking for a starter and I think that would be a good fit for him. I don't think he will stay with the Tribe.

Anyone want to point out that the question is about a mid-season deal, and not an off-season signing? No? We should just limp to the finish line and not question why anyone in the world continues with the charade that these chats are informative or helpful in any way? Cool with me.

Matt (FL): What is your take on the Rays/Cubs series? In my opinion the pitching matchups look extremely slanted with the Rays have a big edge in game 1 and 3 with the Cubs having the edge in game 2.

Bet now on whether Joe makes any kind of specific reference to the Cubs-Rays series. Keep in mind, when you bet, that if you say "Yes, he will make specific reference to some aspect of the Cubs-Rays series" that you are betting on the idea that (a) he knew they were playing and (b) looked at a computer or something to get information on the series and (c) remembered the information and (d) knew who the Rays are and (e) knows what baseball is.

Odds on Joe making specific reference to any aspect of the Cubs-Rays series: 1 in 2.8 sesquicentillion.

Place your bets.

Betting is about to close.

Betting is closed.

Joe Morgan: I think it will be a great series for the Rays to see where they are. They will be able to gage themselves by playing the best team in the NL.

Everyone, somehow, is a loser.

JBloom (Plevna, Kansas): Joe, My brother Leo and I have agreed to let you settle our argument! He thinks if the Reds are going to play for next year they should trade Griffey. But I say they should trade Dunn! He strikeout too much, chokes the bases and Griffey would be a good influence teaching the young guys like Bruce how to grind out a game. But what do you think?

Nearly 100% JoeBaiter turnout. Good work, everyone.

Joe Morgan: How about both? (laughing)

Okay. Hang on.

This freaks my bean a little.

Who typed that? Who typed that he is laughing? Do interns actually do these chats? Who's at the keyboard?

...Fremp?

I'm not naive. I always considered the possibility that Joe doesn't actually type these chats. It's just that the goofiness of the answers and the carelessness of the word processing seemed so sympatico. This is just odd.

Anyway. If there has been some Frempish figure hacking away all these years -- and distorting your words, Joe -- I apologize for this whole site. If there's someone typing and not distorting your words, I apologize for only the parts where I make fun of your typing. And if you are typing and you wrote: (laughing) as you started laughing at your own joke, I apologize for nothing, and you should seek counseling.

That's a hard argument to settle. The question is if Griffey is in a slump or if he in on the decline. With Dunn, what you see is what you get with him. Does he do enough to help the team win a championship?

I'm going to go ahead and suggest that Griffey, who is 38, is "in decline" instead of "slumping." Now, he had an .868 OPS last year, so even in decline he will probably be pretty good for a while. But Adam Dunn is 28 and has hit 40+ HR four years in a row. Is that "enough" for you, Joe? Is it? Answer me, damnit!!!! (sobs)

Joe Morgan: Thanks for hte chat. Looking forward to doing the Cub/White Sox, the inner city battle and who knows what Ozzie Guillen will say between now and then.

[sic]

Labels: bill fremp, crazysense™, infinite jest, joe morgan, joechat

...charge.

Joe Morgan: As soon as we think we have sports figured out,

No right-minded person ever thinks this.

things seem to go awry. Everyone thought Big Brown would win easily, everyone thought the Lakers would win easily,

The Celtics had home court advantage.

and everyone thought the Tigers would win easily. None of that has happened, and it makes for an interesting sports climate. That said, I still don't know which team will be in the World Series.

Real quick:

1. There are two teams in the World Series.
2. Read your first sentence and your last sentence together, and see if it makes sense. "As soon as we think we have sports figured out, things seem to go awry. That said, I still don't know which team will be in the World Series."

Or: "Sports are unpredictable. That said, the end result of this sports season is unpredictable."

Off to an A+ start.

Danny (NY): Hi Joe, lots of writers and reporters are suggesting that griffey would be at 700 homers if he stayed healthy. don't you find this "math" kind of ridiculous?

JoeBait? If so, well done.

Joe Morgan: No, Griffey has missed a lot of time--close to three or four full seasons. I think it's possible that he could be close to 700 without injuries, but that is just speculation. You never know what a guy can do. But using his home runs per at-bat ratio, it'd probably have him close to 700.

Can't predict / Predicts it then announces it's just a prediction / Can't predict / Uses math to predict it.

Joe Morgan: But it's always hard to speculate on what someone would or would not do.

For the millionth time: we know. You're an expert. We're asking your opinion. No need for the qualification.

Imagine if every expert in every field operated this way.

"Here's Storm Cloudman with the weather. Storm? What can we expect this weekend?"

"Well, Rich, I simply do not know. I mean, I could guess, but what would be the point? It's impossible to tell. Too early. Anything could happen. Who can say, really? There will be weather of some kind -- that's a given. But I can't really speculate."

"Thanks. Say, is Storm Cloudman your real name?"

"No. My real name is Coriolis Effect von Thunderbolt."

Lee (NYC): Joe, thanks for taking my question. I am a Yankee fan but I have always been a huge Willie Randolph fan. I feel that Willie Randolph has nothing to do with the mess the Mets are in. Shouldn't Omar Minaya take most of the blame? He put this team together.

Joe Morgan: He has to take his share of the blame for putting the team together, but the manager usually takes the blame first. If Willie is fired, the focus will go to the GM. If he stays, the focus will stay on him. But it would be that way in other cities too. The Mariners are way under .500, for instance, but no one is criticizing the GM, they're looking at the manager.

Hear that, recently-fired Bill Bavasi? No one blames you.

Joe Wheaton, IL: With the AL Central being weak this year do you feel the sox can run away with it? and what mid season move do you feel would help the sox take that next step to finish off min,clev,det and kc?

Joe Morgan: I've felt that the Sox could win the division, although they will not run away with it. They will go through spells where they cannot hit at all. They have good pitching, but without a well-rounded total attack, you can't run away with a division. That said, I don't know who will get hot and chase them.

"That Said" should be the title of Joe's autobiography.


Keith (Miami): Can you see the Marlins making any moves, maybe for a pitcher near the deadline if they continue to stay in it?

Joe Morgan: We don't know...We will just have to wait and see...

Kyle (PA): Joe, does Gary Sheffield hit the hardest line drives you've ever seen?

Joe Morgan: Probably.

(See this, if you don't know the JoeBait backstory here.)

And for the finale:

Joe Morgan: Everything else is up for grabs. That said, so many things can change by September.

JoeChat Advisory:

These haven't been that fun lately, frankly. They have their share of "consistently"s and "Sheffield"s and stuff, but in general, whether it's Bill Fremp or Joe getting better or something, the answers aren't that crazy and the jokes are starting to feel the same. So, this may be the last full JoeChat for a while. I may start just picking out individual moments or something...whatever. We'll play it by ear. It's a blog, after all, so we'll wing it.

That said, this could all change tomorrow.

Labels: bill fremp, Coriolis Effect von Thunderbolt, joe morgan, joechat

Eh. There's a JoeChat. It's not supergreat. Whatever.

Kevin (Omaha): Who do you think is the best rookie in the AL, and do you think moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation will impact AL ROY?

Joe Morgan: Right now, I think players like Ellsbury, Carlos Gomez, Evan Longoria, Adam Jones, and Joba are having positive impacts on their clubs, but it's only June.

The encouraging thing here is that he knows all of those names. The negative thing is that the claim he is making is so weak it barely qualifies as a sentence. "I think (six awesome young payers) are having positive impacts on their teams. Wait -- that sounds too risky. Let's add a qualifier."

I don't think Joba moving to the rotation impacts the other guys. It'd be hard for him as a starter starting this late to win the ROY award. It'll only impact his team and help them with the rotation which needs a lot of help. But it's too early to say someone is going to be rookie of the year or not.

Too early. Sorry. Can't say. No answers here. Nothing to see. Move along, people.

howard (jersey city, nj): Hi Joe! As an ex-Red you must be excited about Jay Bruce. Do you think he can keep up this pace and how hard is it for a rookie to develop the consistancy needed to be a superstar? Thanks!

There's no great answer to this. I just want to announce that "consistancy" (sic) is now the official JoeBait of FJM.

rob (Houston): Are the Rays for real? Can they actually win the AL East?

Joe Morgan: Anyone in this position at this time, like the Rays or Marlins, can win.

The Marlins are +4 runs scored/runs allowed. The Phillies are + 63. All things being equal, there is a very very very small chance that the Marlins can overtake the Phillies (usual caveats about injuries, trades, SSS, etc.). The Rays are +22, but they've played 9 more home games than away games so far, and the +22 is only good for 3rd in the East (and the Yankees aren't #1 or #2). You'd bet on the Marlins, I guess, of the two of them, but it doesn't look good for either one.

Sincerely,

The Opposite of Joe Morgan

They have proven they can play well and their confidence level has grown where they definitely think they are the best team. They should definitely have confidence in their ability to win. They're a young team, so they do have an advantage in that they will stay fresh longer, but they also have to deal with the pressure of a pennant race, where older guys have been through it before. This series against the Red Sox should tell them a lot about where they are.

I just...I don't know. I'm having one of those crises. Is this just fish in a barrel, poking fun at a guy this predictable? There's not one actual ounce of analysis in this analysis. It's like how Friendly's has to call their milkshake-y product a "Fribble" because there's no actual milk in it. (At least, that was the urban legend in my town growing up.)

Jason (DC): Good morning Joe, whats wrong with my Detroit Tigers? it seems to me like they may have gone too far with acquiring slow-footed sluggers, at the expense of younger, speedier guys who could run the bases better, putting pressure on the defense and causing mistakes. If Sheffield can come back healthy, how do you like their chances? seems too early to count them out, since none of the other teams in the AL Central look like they have the consistency to pull away from the pack.

Detroit: 276 runs scored, 4th in AL (and 1 behind third place Minnesota).
Detroit: 302 runs allowed, third most in AL (and only 2 behind Seattle). Only Texas is really a worse staff than Detroit. So...let's talk about pitching!

Joe Morgan: Everything you say is true, but hindsight is always 20/20. When they put this team together, it looked to be a revisiting of the '27 Yankees. They have not hit well as a team,

4th/3rd most runs in the AL after losing several key players to injuries early on and having a bunch of guys get off to slow starts. Pitching. Pitching is the problem.

despite some good individual performances. They got shut out for the NINTH time last week.

4.74 team ERA. Pitching.

There's a lot going on there. They have enough speed where guys can score from second and go first to third.

Four main starters have WHIPs over 1.40. Verlander's K rate is down to just over 5 per 9 IP. Nate Robertson's ERA is over 6.00 in 72 innings. Pitching.

Speed is not their biggest problem,

Pitching is. Say it.

though it does help you. Make no mistake, it is not too late.

...To get some pitching help?

They are still in striking distance of Chicago. It's a long season and they need to get their act together. They could put together a 15 game winning streak.

Not one mention of pitching. Anywhere. Not one.

John (Atlanta): What pitch from which pitcher was the nastiest you saw during your career?

Joe Morgan: I think Sandy Koufax had the best overall stuff. Bob Gibson had the toughest low fastball. Koufax's was more belt-high and above. I still to this day think the fastball, thrown properly, is the toughest pitch to hit. But there were a lot of guys I'd faced with great stuff.

Joe Morgan: The pitch that probably bothered me the most was a guy like Kent Tekulve, who threw a great underhand sinker. That's just from a personal standpoint.

Years from now, when all scientists and researchers on Earth or its 4 Colonies (Mars, Betelgeuse, Blargon 7, and Papelbonia) are required by Galactic Law to spend a full year analyzing Joe Morgan's writing, this answer may turn out to be a key to unlocking just what the hell is going on in his brain. The question is: which pitch from a specific pitcher was the nastiest that you, Joe, saw in your career. He says some stuff about Koufax and Gibson...fine. Then he says: the pitch that bothered me the most was Kent Tekulve's underhand sinker. An excellent answer -- much more interesting that "Bob Gibson's fastball." But then he adds: "That's just from a personal standpoint." As if, like, apologizing that he has decided to answer the question from a "personal standpoint." When the question was aimed at getting his "personal standpoint."

Explain.

Elias in Iowa: How ya doin' Joe? What do you think about the Cardinals rotation? Can they continue this (minus Wainwrights start last night) for the rest of the season? Do you think Mark Mulder will ever be the same again?

Joe Morgan: Anytime you've kept up a performance into June, you're capable of doing it the rest of the way. The Cardinals have overachieved a bit, but they are very confident now, and I think they will continue to pitch well. It's difficult to say if Mulder will recover. Arm injuries are always uncertain, so you're never 100 percent committed to a pitch--the best you can ever get is 90 to 95 percent because you're worried about overextending. I don't know that he'll be the same, but he is a smart pitcher and I think he can still win ballgames if he gets back.

It's not really about intelligence, man. It's about his shoulder. And he recently said that he'd rather retire than have another operation. He threw 11 innings last year, gave up 22 hits, and shut it down. He hasn't pitched this year and there doesn't seem to be a timetable for him to do so. Come on, Joe. Know something. (And by the way, while you're at it, go ahead and give Billy Beane another round of applause for getting Calero, Barton and Haren for Mulder. And everybody said he was crazy.)

Joe Morgan: Looking forward to talking to you all again next week!

I guess.

Labels: joe morgan, joechat

DoubleShot!

SprungOnSports (Long Island): Do you think Willie Randolph should be fired for the Mets' recent failures, or are his players or the GM more at fault?

Once again, SprungOnSports (Long Island) gets there first. That dude is eager.

Joe Morgan: If you're going to fire Willie, you'd have to fire Jim Leyland, John McLaren, Bud Black, and Ned Yost. The list could go on and on. Why is he the one being picked on when so many other teams are playing below their potential. Maybe Willie's point of playing under more scrutiny is a valid one.

John McLaren doesn't seem that great, but Bill Bavasi is the one who put that team together. Jim Leyland won the pennant two years ago and has probably earned at least an ASB-type chance. Maybe Bud Black should go, though he did win 89 games last year. Ned Yost...maybe. That team should be playing better. I don't know. It seems to me that instead of anyone playing the race card, we should look at the obvious facts: the team has a $138m payroll, acquired Johan Santana in the off-season, was PECOTAed to win 93 games this year, and most importantly, had an all-time record collapse last year down the stretch. Any manager of that team -- in NY -- is, as Mike from Paradise Hotel 2 would say, going to be on the boilerplate if his team gets off to a bad start.

Alan (Philly): Joe, have you ever seen a second baseman or any player at that as versatile as Chase Utley?

Mention Cano. Mention Cano. Mention Cano.

Joe Morgan: There have been a lot of really exceptional second basemen around. Robinson Cano has that ability of being versatile. [...]

Robby Cano, or "RoCa" as Jim Kaat has surely tried out calling him at home before he announces games and then decided, "Nah -- AlSo was better," is an excellent baseball player. But Chase Utley has 16 HR this season, and Cano's season high to this point in his career is 19. Just sayin'. He's also 51-60 in steals for his career, and Cano is an abysmal 11-24. I'm not sure what "versatile" means here, but Cano's not in his league for two out of the classic "5 tools."

I think Chase Utley right now is the best of the group, but there are a lot of really good second basemen around.

The only one whose name I know, however, is Robinson Cano.

George,E.L.,Ma.: Hi Joe.Do you think that the Red Sox will make a move with Lugo(trade or release),or stick it out?

Joe Morgan: He seems like he's been playing better.

He has a .684 OPS (not horrendous for a SS, but that's after a pretty good May) and 12 errors in 44 games (horrendous for a SS). He's being paid eleventy million dollars a year through 2010 and is routinely lifted for a defensive replacement in the late innings. You can't release him, you probably can't trade him unless you Renteria it up and pay like $8m/year to some team that needs a 2Bman.

I don't know if you can go find a shortstop at this juncture of the season.

Unless you have a decent prospect, Jed Lowrie, at AAA. (To be fair, I don't know that Lowrie is necessarily a better option at this point. His defense seems iffy. Though he did have an .862 OPS in 40 games at AAA last year. I think you're stuck with Lugo through the year at least.)

There may be someone available at the all-star break.

Lugo for Kouzmanoff straight up?

Being honest with you, Lugo is not hindering the Red Sox right now. It wasn't his fault the Sox got swept by Oakland.

First of all, thank you for your honesty. Second: what a silly thing to say. It's never one person's fault when a team gets swept. Amount of light shed on the Lugo situation by this answer = .0016 candle power.

john (philly): Will Jay Bruce have an immediate impact for the Reds?

Joe Morgan: I think he will. He brings energy to the team, and besides that, he is a pretty good hitter.

I like that the #1 reason he will help his team is: "energy," and the distant #2 reason is: "ability to hit baseballs."

Ross, Chicago: Is Jim Thome done? Any trade value?

Joe Morgan: I never like to think of players as being done. Only the player will know. They said Frank Thomas was done in Toronto and he is doing well in Oakland. We've poured dirt on guys who have come back to play well before, and only Jim Thome knows whether he's finished or not.

Jim Thome is on pace to hit 32 HR and walk 94 times. Something tells me his BA will come up when his BABIP normalizes a little. See how easy it is to answer questions with facts?

SprungOnSports (Long Island): You just saw the White Sox this past weekend, are they for real?

Hey buddy! Welcome back.

Joe Morgan: I don't think there are any great teams are there.

(a) Not the question. (b) Typo makes it sound like drunk Yoda.

the White Sox had been shut down before we got there for two days. Carlos Quentin saved them when I saw them. They can win the division because they have pitching. You will see pitching dominate the league more this year. More teams will struggle to score runs. Teams that have pitching definitely have the advantage.

Honestly, man -- when was that not the case? Teams with pitching have an advantage? When...did that...not...make...blorp...grrrrnllll

Willy (Cincy): Hi Joe. Any thoughts on why junior is struggling as much as he is this year. Can you lose your bat speed that quick?

(raises hand) I know this! Call on me!

Joe Morgan: Part of it is trying to chase 600 home runs.

No! That's not it! Call on me!

I'm just shocked that he has struggled as much as he has, as he still possesses that sweet swing.

(straining; tipping chair-desk combo unit forward toward teacher) Yes...but...just call on me, and I'll--

The player knows whether his bat speed is gone, and if you're worried about your bat speed,

No, he's not worried about his bat speed, there's something else...call on me! Call on me!

you'll start starting your swing too soon and getting out of position.

Guh.

He's 38, is the answer. He's 38 years old. You should have called on me.

Blake (Aberdeen, MD): After 50 games thus far, what do you think of the Orioles 25-25 ? What could the Orioles get for Sherill at the All-Star break?

Time for the KT Odds Report

Odds that Joe says "there are no perfect teams" -- 1 in 4
Odds that Joe says he hasn't seen the Orioles enough to know about how good they are -- 2 in 5
Odds that Joe knows who George Sherrill is: 1 in 12,500
Odds that Joe actually suggests a trade the Orioles might make using George Sherrill at the ASB and names the specific player or players they get back from a specific team, which would fill a need that the Orioles have that Joe has identified: Sorry, a system error occurred. Abort (A), Retry (R), Fail (F)?

Joe Morgan: You have to give them credit for bouncing back. It's too early to start talking about trading or getting rid of people, as you are still trying to build a foundation. I would say, let's wait before we do anything. The Orioles have to be happy at where they are, as everyone thought they would be a disaster.

Just hit F and we'll try again.

Ryan (Bristol, CT): If you were to choose the final AL East standings, what would they look like?

Joe Morgan: Boston would be the only obvious one at the top. The rest of the teams could be interchangeable. But I could go out on a limb and say Boston-Tampa Bay for the top two.

A prediction! Good for you, man. Well done.

MJ (Edmonton): Joe who was the toughest pitcher you ever faced in your career?

Joe Morgan: I faced so many good pitchers, and at any given day, that pitcher could be the best at that moment. Koufax, Gibson, Seaver, Carlton, Ryan--any of them at their best was the toughest.

I really have no beef with this answer. I am 100% sure that facing those five guys -- obviously -- was miserable for even a hitter as great as Joe. But I'd like to add that I love it when a guy gets asked this, and the answer is someone insane. Like, hey, Tony Gwynn (for example), who's the toughest pitcher you ever faced? "Danny Darwin, bar none. Danny Darwin owned me." I love that. I wish that happened more.

That's all. Back to the chat.

Jeff (Norwich, CT): What is up with the Red Sox problems on the road? They have great pitching and hitting. But no one is stepping up on the road! Any explanations?

Joe Morgan: The team is built so well for Fenway. They all know it so well, and Fenway is a great-hitting park to begin with. It's always been that way for the Red Sox--dynamite in Boston, and not so good on the road.

Last year they were 45-36 on the road, which ain't bad. And in 2002, they were far better on the road than at home. Other than that, you're exactly right.

I expect this team to make adjustments. As I've said before, they are the best team in the game.

The Cubs have a better team ERA and a better team OPS. For the record.

Jeff (Cleveland, OH): Joe, how does a team like the Indians break out of an offensive slump? This is a time when team chemstry plays a role? If you were Eric Wedge, other than continuing to say we need to grind it out, what might you do to help a team like Cleveland start hitting?

Joe Morgan: You have to see them on a daily basis to have an answer--are they overly aggressive, are they not aggressive enough, etc.--but when it starts to happen, players take it on themselves to perform better, which puts a lot of pressure on them. There are a lot of different things a manager can do--manufacture runs, put the hit and run on, or many other things.

Put the hit and run on. Bunt. Be stupider. That's the only way to be better.

I would have to see if somebody is pressing, or if it's just one of those cycles the team is going through. The Yankees had one of the worst batting averages with RISP at the beginning of the year and now they're doing better.

Odds that Joe uses the term "regress to the mean": 1 in [my computer blew up. I am now typing on a new computer. I'm still going to hold out hope that he uses the term "regress to the mean" here. Wouldn't that be something? I mean, it's so crazy, it just...might...]

The best team keeps these low points to a minimum. They do indeed have to grind it out, even if it seems like a cliche.

(Sigh.)

MJ (Edmonton): Joe are you for or against instant replay in baseball?

Buckle up, people.

Joe Morgan: I'm against it for the reasons they're talking about it.

...Who? Are there voices in your head, Joe? You need to call a doctor if there are voices in your head telling you to do things.

It's only because of the bad HR calls recently.

The only reason we want to introduce a solution is because of all the problems we've been having.

There are so many other plays that have an impact on whether the game is won or lost.

Probably, though, home runs are at the top of that list, no? As far as single plays that affect games? I mean, you're talking about plays that by definition score at least one run.

It's the same thing with steroids--people only focused on the home run hitters.

I am a relatively smart person. I majored in Knowledge Acquisition at the University of Science. I cannot for the life of me figure out how wanting to institute replay for HR calls is the same thing as people focusing on HR hitters in the steroids scandal. Yes, in both instances people are "only focusing on" something involving home runs. But: "it's the same thing?" Da-wha?

Everyone influences the game, so why are you looking at one area.

I'm sorry...I thought your objection, as noted in last week's chat, was that soon people would insidiously start expanding replay to other areas. Now you are complaining that it only focuses on one area?

I wouldn't want the K-Zone calling balls and strikes. The reason the umpires called these incorrectly was because they were still running when they made the call.

Yeah, dude, we know why they were called incorrectly. They're not introducing replay so the cameras can follow the umps to get video evidence of why they called HR incorrectly. Willie Randolph didn't go running onto the field to argue that the reason Bob Davidson called Delgado's home run foul was not because he has bad eyesight (as Davidson was asserting in this hypothetical and absurd alternate universe) but rather that he got distracted by a low-flying plane. He ran out to argue that the call was incorrect. Get it?

Your eyes are bouncing when you run,

Someone with artistic skills: please draw a picture of an umpire running towards the outfield fence and show his eyes "bouncing" in a comic way. I will put the winning drawing up on this site in a separate post.

so you can't see with the same precision, and you won't always get a correct view.

You know what doesn't bounce when an umpire runs? An instant replay camera, trained on the path of the flying ball, with the ability to zoom.

There has just been an unusual amount of incorrect calls this season.

If only there were a way to prevent such things in the future.

Once you open that replay box, where do you stop?

At home run calls. Or at some other point, if you want more plays to be reviewable. Like the NFL did.

The game would slow down even more than it does now,

I don't think that's true.

and baseball came out with a new set of rules to speed up the game. I'm concerned with dead time.

Then stop doing analysis on live TV. Oooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhh snappp! (high-fives no one; is alone in mom's basement)

Igor(Yonkers,NY): Joe, When will the best player of all time, Barry Bonds, be back in uniform and with whom?

Joe Morgan: If I had a team, Barry could play for me. It's pretty obvious to me that there has been some kind of effort to keep him from playing.

No hint, even, of Barry having made his own bed, steroidically speaking. And another wild accusation of collusion from Joe. Frequent readers of this blog will remember similarly unfounded claims being made against the Red Sox for tampering with J.D. Drew in his option year. No evidence is given, because apparently, when you're Joe Morgan, you need not have any.

He hit 28 home runs last year, and there are a lot of less-productive players playing this year. They could use his legal problems as an excuse, but they would not keep him from playing.

dak/Junior and I disagree on this. I can't imagine having that dude on my team. Sorry, everyone. I know he'd OPS like .900, but he'd clog up the metaphorical organizational basepaths with his slowfootedly awful personality and his knee injury of misanthropic distraction. Call me crazy. Call me a hypocrite. That dude doesn't play for my team.

MJ (Edmonton): Joe, which of today's players is the most fun to interview?

Joe Morgan: I enjoy talking to most of the guys.

Gary Sheffield, Robby Cano, Sheffield, Derek Jeter, Sheff, Gary S., Sheffieldio, Top Sheff, Sheffenpopper Incorporated, The Right Honourable Garibaldy von SheffenPfeffer...all of them.

I really enjoy talking to Jim Thome, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz. But I don't get a chance to interview them like I used to.

Because... (everybody now)...

...I don't really see that much baseball.

Joe Morgan: Thanks for all your questions.

"You're welcome!!!!"

--SprungOnSports (Long Island)

Labels: barry bonds, clogging the metaphorical organizational basepaths with a slowfootedly awful personality and a knee injury of misanthropic distraction, joe morgan, joechat, paradise hotel 2