FIRE JOE MORGAN

Saw this over at Keith Law's blog. It's a link to an article by Twins' beat writer Bob Sansevere. He proposes the following trade:

Red Sox Get:

Johan Santana
Joe Nathan
Carlos Silva

Twins Get:

Jacoby Ellsbury
Dustin Pedroia
Jonathan Papelbon
Jon Lester
Clay Buchholz

I have identified 2.6 billion problems with this trade. Here are two:

1. Carlos Silva is a free agent.
2. It's fucking insane.

He concludes the article by writing this:

What's Twins general manager Bill Smith waiting for? He should have this deal done by now.

Does Theo Epstein have anything to say about it? Because trading something like 23 cost-controlled years of five excellent young players for one year of Santana, one year of 33 year-old Joe Nathan, and no years of the impossible-to-obtain-through-trade Carlos Silva -- who, again, is a free agent -- might be the worst deal of all-time, in any sport, including Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell.

Labels: bob sansevere, trade proposals

The Minneapolis-St. Paul Twin Cities Picayune-Gazzateer Star Tribune's Howard Sinker has a question:

Would you trade Torii Hunter to the Yankees for Alex Rodriguez? It wouldn’t even be a financial reach for the Twins, providing the conditions outlined below are met by all parties.

(Listen, I know that it’s a lot easier to make trades when you’re setting terms for both sides. But I like to think of myself as a benevolent arbiter, looking out for the interests of all parties. And, Lord knows, someone has to be looking out for the Yankees these days.)

*A-Rod comes to the Twins and agrees to waive the opt-out clause in his contract, which runs through 2010. Torii agrees to a three-year, $45 million extension with the Yankees, keeping him signed through 2010.

(Then some discussion of the financial differences between what the Yankees owe ARod and thus what the Twins would have to pay ARod and what the Yankees would be paying Hunter if he agreed to this absurd extension...and then...)

*The Yankees, under my terms, give the Twins $16 million toward A-Rod’s salary. That means the Twins pay A-Rod $45 million for the next 3 1/2 years...That’s only $3 million more than the Twins would pay Hunter for 3 1/2 years if he’d be willing to sign an extension for the $12 million/year he’s making right now, which isn’t at all likely. In other words, this deal is almost certainly cheaper for the Twins than signing Hunter, and it doesn’t cost the Yankees any more than their current commitment to A-Rod.

Awesome. Really good idea. I think it will totally work. Just a few problems:

If you think Torii Hunter, who is 31 and approaching his first big free-agent payday and has been playing in Minnesota forever, is going to sign a three-year extension for $15m a year, the year after Carlos Lee signed for a record $6.4 billion with the motherhumping Astros, you have a serious drug problem that has already rendered you mostly braindead.

If you think the Yankees are going to pay someone -- anyone -- to take Alex Rodriguez and his .347 EqA off their hands, you are a sociopath with no ability to understand social signals or other people's intentions, and you might be capable of horrifying crimes against humanity.

If you think that Torii Hunter -- and I know you live in Minnesota and watch him play every day and all that -- but if you think Torii Hunter and his .324 career OBP is worth Alex Rodriguez in this or any known universe or any even theoretical universe predicted by cutting-edge string theory-type research, you have a rare and possibly brain-threatening virus previously only found in sharks, and you should turn yourself into the CDC in Atlanta ASAP.

Torii Hunter has had a WARP3 above 6.7 once in his life. Alex Rodriguez eats 6.7 WARP3's for brunch in mid-July while getting lap dances and attending psychotherapy at the same time.

Here's what PECOTA predicts for Torii Hunter in 2008:

.280/.338/.462
HR: 17
EqA: .280

Here's PECOTA for ARod in 2008:

.288/.388/.518
HR: 31
EqA: .318

You think the Yankees are going to pay the Twinkies $5m+ next year to watch that unfold? And you call that "looking out" for them?

I salute you, sir. You're my kind of Yankee Advocate.

Labels: arod, howard sinker, torii hunter, trade proposals

One of my favorite things about June is that sportswriters start proposing trades, and they're almost always loonytunes. (Steve Phillips, par example.) The 2007 edition of "They should totally do this!" has been officially kicked-off by FJM fave Phil Rogers.

Given the growing desperation of the two teams [Yankees and ChiSox], is it out of the question Sox general manager Ken Williams would package Joe Crede and Mark Buehrle to the Yankees for [Alex] Rodriguez, outfielder Melky Cabrera and a live arm or two? It's the kind of big-name trade Williams seems to love making. Rodriguez has a no-trade clause in his contract and Scott Boras as his agent, but you have to think he wants out of New York more than ever now that the New York Post is staking him out in hotel elevators.

Well done, sir.

I'm guessing that the real reason this would never happen is because Brian Cashman is a sentient human being with the ability to understand basic information. Joe Crede is a good fielding 3Bman who did hit 30 HR last year (in what might have been a career year) and this year is crashing to earth, sporting a .216 EqA. Mark Buehrle is a pretty good pitcher. Alex Rodriguez is one of the best baseball players in the history of baseball. Melky Cabrera is a 22 year-old OF with good upside. One or two "live arms" are anonymous pitchers with, presumably, some upside.

And before you fire off emails talking about how ARod is miserable and will void his contract at the end of the year and blah blah blah: Buehrle is a free agent after this year. And Crede has one more arb year and then he's free.

So, the proposed trade is:

YANKEES GET
1. Decent LHP (28th in VORP this year) who has a career K/9IP rate of 5.3, which is: eh, and who could leave at the end of the year
2. Good defensive third baseman who has shown good power in the past, whose career OBP is a Guzman-esque .306

WHITE SOX GET
1. One of the very best baseball players of all time
2. A 4th OF who's 22 years old and had a .750 OPS last year
3. A live arm
4. Another live arm

Seems good to me. Ball's in your court, Cashman.

Labels: arod, phil rogers, trade proposals, yankees

...about Manny Ramirez trades.

Kevin (Waltham, MA): What are the chances of Manny being moved? What about the Dodgers, will Perez or Lowe have a new home come Monday?

Steve Phillips: I think the Dodgers, Mets, Orioles and ... yes ... maybe even the Yankees would be a fit for Manny Ramirez. The trade would be a complex one and is more likely to happen in the offseason than at the tradedeadline. On Cold Pizza yesterday morning, I made three trade proposals for Manny. 1) Manny to the Yankees for Sheffield and Tom Gordon. Sox replace the bat and get a potential closer to ride out the end of the season with.

The idea that the Sox would deal Manny Ramirez to the Yankees is so insane I can barely breathe. Ditto the idea that the Yankees would trade Sheffield and one of their only two reliable bullpen guys to the Red Sox. Ditto the idea that the Sox would trade for Gary Sheffield, who has publicly stated his plan to have a complete 3rd-grade shitfit if he is traded anywhere. When did Steve Phillips become a "Mike and the Mad Dog" caller?

2) Manny and Mark Bellhorn to the Dodgers for Jeff Kent, Jason Worth (sic) and Odalis Perez. This gives the Red Sox a RHbat to replace Manny, a young OFer who pulls the ball and can take advantage of the green monster, and pitching depth which would still allow them to make an Arroyo or Burnett deal or possibly allow them to acquire Edgardo Alfonzo to play third base. Then they could trade Bill Mueller to the Twins for Romero.

A 36 year-old (albeit good) second baseman, a not good outfielder (.397 SLG this year) , and an injured pitcher for a guy with a 1.000 lifetime OPS, so that the Sox can then trade Bronson Arroyo for AJ Burnett and pick up Edgardo Alfonzo to play third so they can trade Bill Mueller to the Twins for JC Romero. I know the Sox have problems, but you want to replace your left fielder, second baseman, two starters, third baseman, and lefty set-up guy? That seems...I'll say "risky" to do mid-season. How about something simpler, Steve?

3) The last trade proposal I have is for the Mets. ... AS Mets fans choke on their coffee and say, ''Oh no! Not Phillips making Mets trades again! No!'' ... Bear with me, try to follow ....

At least he's self-aware. What's the proposal?

Victor Zambrano to the Giants for Alphonzo. Cliff Floyd to the Cubs for Corey Patterson and Glendon Rush. Then, the Mets spin Patterson to the Devil Rays for Danys Baez. The Mets THEN take Mike Cameron, Edgardo Alfonzo, Danys Baez and Glendon Rush and trade them to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez.

Why don't the Cubs, Giants, Mets, DRays, and Sox just all switch uniforms? It'll be easier.

Also, I guarantee the Red Sox would never trade the 2004 World Series MVP for Mike Cameron, Edgardo Alfonzo, Danys Baez and Glendon Rusch. That's trading one great player with a huge salary for four average players with medium salaries. What good does that do? Hey, I've got an idea. The Yankees should do a nine-way trade where they get rid of ARod and get Pat Borders, Geoff Jenkins, Ray Durham, Matt Stairs, Frank Menechino, Jose Cruz, Jr., David Weathers, Lou Pinella, and a dozen sweatshirts with Pete LaForest's face on them.

Labels: steve phillips, trade proposals