FIRE JOE MORGAN

Have you ever noticed how often Joe uses the word "but" in his chats? A lot.

Get out your [sic]s, fire up the WTF?! machine and say your 2007 goodbyes, people.

Joe Morgan: We normally, it's not always the best team that wins the World Series, but the team that's playing the best at that time. But that clearly was not the case this year. Not only is Boston the best team, but it was also playing the best.

Ken Tremendous: WTF?

Mike (Boston): Hey Joe, which Red Sox team do you think was better 2004 or 2007?

Joe Morgan: Well, I think the '07 is better. When you go down each player, trying to pitch to them, this team is far more difficult to pitch to. Each and every player is a different type of hitter. That makes it more difficult for the pitcher to pitch to them. They all contribute something to the team. I think this team is much better.

2004 Red Sox: 98 wins, .832 team OPS (which I believe was an all-time record; or maybe it was just a record SLG)

2007 Red Sox: 96 wins, .806 team OPS

The 2007 team may have been better, but it wasn't because they were a better hitting team. Researching this took me 25 seconds.

Brad(NM): Good morning Joe. Do you believe the Yankees hired the right man for the job? Do you think they showed a lack of loyalty to Mattingly?

Joe Morgan: I don't know whether Girardi is the right guy or not, because I don't know much about him as a manager. I definitely thought Don Mattingly was going to get the job. I don't know if it was a lack of loyalty, because in their mind, Girardi was a Yankee too.

KT: Don't know, don't know, don't know. Well done. I like that "in their mind" Girardi was a Yankee. Not "in light of the fact that he played for the Yankees" Girardi is a Yankee.

Bill (Chicago): Who would you have given the MVP to? Mike Lowell was obviously deserving, but so was Papelbon, Ellsbury, Beckett, Pedroia etc.

Joe Morgan: Well, I voted for Mike Lowell. I had a vote. But I also said on my broadcast that they had several players who were MVPs. But I thought Lowell stood out more because he had more clutch hits. His hits had more meaning than the others' on a consistent basis. I thought Pedroia would have won if he had a better Game 4, but he didn't.

KT: Joe and "Consistent" -- Consistently Wonderful. (Three "but"s in this answer, too.) I think I would've given it to Lowell too, then Papelbon, then Ellsbury. Fun Fact: the Red Sox' team OPS for the World Series was .936!

Jim (NYC): Do you feel it will be tough for the Rockies to concetrate

KT: Thank you, Jim.

next year after the run they had? They weren't exactly consistent

And again.

this season...running hot and cold.

Joe Morgan: Well, if you're asking if I think they'll win the division next year, I say no. Your assessment is right on the mark. No one even noticed them going into the last month of the season. Then all of a sudden they got hot. They were under .500. But they got hot and won the wild card. But I do think they were hurt by the layoff. But even without the layoff, they were not nearly as good a team as Boston.

I'm no 2nd grade-level expository writing instructor, but I think that the last three sentences are poorly composed. But can you figure out what I mean? But I bet you can, but if you look hard. But what if you can't? But I bet you can.

Bill (PA): John Farrell is interviewing with the Pirates this week. How do you think he will fare as a manager? Is he the right man for the Bucos?

Joe Morgan: It's the same way I answered about Girardi. I do not know enough about him to say if he'll be a good manager or not. I really can't give an honest opinion there, because I don't know him well enough.

KT: Why should you? It's not like he's a high-profile assistant coach on the World Series champion. Nor is it like you're an A-team baseball analyst on the #1 baseball network, who just covered the World Series, which just featured the team he coaches for. Nothing to see here. Move along, people. Just keep walking. Move! I said move! Move dammit! (sprays tear gas on people gawking at Joe's ignorance of the sport he covers) See? Now look what I had to do. I didn't want to do that, but you refused to be reasonable. Now clean yourselves up.

Cc (Atlanta): Renteria to the Tigers... ever heard of the young guys the Braves got back? It's an obvious salary dump but his replcement, Yunel Escobar, is a rising star.

Joe Morgan: I'm a big fan of Renteria. He's one of the most underrated clutch hitters in the game. I'm a big fan of his. The Braves want to play Escobar. They think he can be a good shortstop. They can save money. That's what they're doing. But I'm a big Renteria fan. I think he'll help the Tigers. He'll make them a stronger lineup. I like the move for the Tigers.

KT: Apparently, Joe stepped out of the room for a moment, and retarded Raymond Carver took over the chat. Here is a poem I wrote using that previous paragraph's worth of sentences.

I'm a big fan of Renteria.
I think he'll help the Tigers.
I'm a big fan of his.
I like the move for the Tigers.

But I'm a big Renteria fan.
He's one of the most underrated clutch hitters in the game.
He'll make them a stronger lineup.
I'm a big fan of his.

The Braves want to play Escobar.
They think he can be a good shortstop.
They can save money.
That's what they're doing.

(I reused one sentence to make the stanzas even.)

Jimmy (Springer nm): Will the Yankees be in contention next year with Girardi or will it be a couple of years

Joe Morgan: Well, the problem in baseball is, even if you say you're going to rebuild and be back in a couple of years, there's no guarantee that they will be back.

Yes there is. It is called: unlimited resources. There is no "rebuilding." They are losing ARod and maybe Pettitte/Posada, but chances are they re-sign Rivera, and for all we know they're working on a deal for Santana and cannot extend him with the money they're saving elsewhere. They are in contention right now.

If they lose, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, they won't be in the playoffs next year. They do have some young pitchers that they need to develop, but at the same time your veterans are getting older.

Players aging over time: a problem unique to the Yankees, apparently.

brett (philly): what can the phillies do to make the next step and be a true contender?

Joe Morgan: I think the Phillies are a true contender already. [...] The Reds, under Dusty Baker, are in a similar situation in that the ballpark plays so small, it's hard to have a good pitching staff. The Reds are going to have to outscore opponents.

Having to outscore opponents to win: a problem unique to the Reds, apparently.

Jeff (Iowa): What do you think of the Reds hiring Dusty Baker?

Joe Morgan: Well, Dusty is a proven winner.

"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

He brings that status with him - just like Torre takes with him to the Dodgers, if he goes there. But I do think it's difficult to win in a ballpark that plays so small, unless you have the most talented players in the game. I think Dusty's a great manager

"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

and he will do a good job there. The Reds will be a better team than last year.

Well, they were 72-90, and their ExWL was 74-88. It's entirely possible they'll be better next year without anything changing at all. However. If you're telling me that the Reds will be better because Dusty Baker is their manager, then I disrespectfully disagree.

Labels: arod, concetrate, dusty baker, joe morgan, joechat

Or, to his friends: JoeChat.

Rich (Arlington, VA): How about the NL West and AL West? These divisions are so close that its hard to tell if they are all bad teams or good teams. Who do you think will win these two divisions?

Joe Morgan: The NL West for the last couple of years has been in shambles from where it was before. It was the best division a few years ago. Now, you're not sure from week to week who CAN win. I actually think that if Barry can play 140 games, they may end up being the top team - not necessarily the best team - in that division.

KT: Good start from Joe, here (although, to be fair, this was the second question). Doesn't address the AL West at all. Does not mention the Giants before talking about them as though he has. And finally: please explain to me how a team can be the top team, but not the best team, in the division. It reminds me of a Simpsons episode where Montgomery Burns, returning from the Harvard-Yale football game and waving a Yale pennant, says, “Honestly, Smithers, I don't know why Harvard even bothers to show up. They barely even won.”

Fred (Aurora, IL): I have always wondered what the difference between "bat speed" and "power" were. I always heard that Sheffield had the most bat speed but he didn't hit for as much power as say Dunn, Pujols or Bonds... Is it possible to swing a slow but powerful bat? or to have great bat speed but little power?

Joe Morgan: I don't think you can have great bat speed, but little power.

KT: Paul Molitor, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, and Ichiro on lines 1-4 for you, Joe.

But Frank Thomas doesn't have a quick bat, but a lot of power. Sheffield generates a lot of power with a quick bat. Having high bat speed and being strong are the two ways to generate power.

KT: Where is this going? I’m lost.

I wasn't very strong, but I had a quick bat. Tony Perez didn't have a quick bat, but was very strong.

KT: Ah, that’s where it was going. Fantastic.

Joe Morgan: That was an excellent question.

KT: Read: “I got to praise myself and my old teammate.”

Let’s look at that whole answer again, and count how many times Joe uses certain words:

I don't think you can have great bat speed, but little power. But Frank Thomas doesn't have a quick bat, but a lot of power. Sheffield generates a lot of power with a quick bat. Having high bat speed and being strong are the two ways to generate power. I wasn't very strong, but I had a quick bat. Tony Perez didn't have a quick bat, but was very strong.

Bat: 6
But: 5
Speed/Quick: 6
Power/Strong: 7

Reading that paragraph is like being dropped into a topiary maze.

Dave (Pittsburgh): Joe, I know you are generally a supporter of Dusty Baker. But, with his team getting blown out so regularly, do you think the Cubs may feel forced to let him go, just to give the team a spark?

Joe Morgan: That was the reason they brought Dusty there was to give the team a spark. The history of the Cubs didn't start with this downturn with Dusty. They've had a lot of injuries, especially this year, losing Lee in addition to Prior and Wood. If you took Bonds or Pujols out of their team's lineup, their teams wouldn't be very good either. These things are not in Dusty's control and I think he's a good manager for any team.

KT: We’re talking about the same Dusty Baker, right? The guy who has Kerry Wood throw like 140 pitches on his first start after surgery and generally wears his pitchers down to a nub? The guy who, despite having one of the best pitching staffs in years, got his strategic ass handed to him in 2003 by a 109 year-old cigar smoking dope who didn’t even know his own players’ names? The guy who was interviewed thusly in the Daily Herald:

“I think walks are overrated unless you can run," Baker said. "If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps. But the guy who walks and can't run, most of the time they're clogging up the bases for somebody who can run."

That kind of talk is nothing short of heresy for those in the OBP-is-king camp. Baker, an old-school sort, doesn't seem to mind.

"Who's been the champions the last seven, eight years?" he asked "Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? Walks help. But you ain't going to walk across the plate. You're going to hit across the plate. That's the school I come from.

"It's called hitting, and it ain't called walking. Do you ever see the top 10 walking? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk. But the name of the game is to hit."

That Dusty Baker, right? He’s a good manager for any team? Okay. Cool.

Tim (Pittsburgh): What can manager Jim Tracy do to help the Pirates play sound fundamental baseball again? Bullpen giving up leads, veteran right fielders causing errors, and players not being able to score a run with bases loaded in the ninth with no outs. What is their deal???

Joe Morgan: It starts with fundamentals and concentration. What you have to do as a manager is force the players to concentration throughout the game on every facet. You have to do everything. The real reason teams like KC and Pittsburgh is because of their lack of concentration in easy situations, making errors on routine plays and such. It's about focusing at all times and concentrating.

KT: Another thing he can do is get better players. I mean, I don’t think Joe says anything wrong here, but the “real reason” the Bucs and Royals can’t win is that their rosters are just miserable.

Jason (Atlanta, GA): Joe, you said that injuries to Prior and Wood are beyond Dusty's control, but isn't it possible that the heavy workload to which he's subjected them has contributed to their injuries? Should he share some of the blame?

Joe Morgan: I don't think you can say that, because they've never thrown 250-300+ innings to be overused. The workload is to pitch every fifth day and 250 innings is the standard for top pitchers and I don't think either has done that. Their mechanics have been called into question, but not their workload.

KT: Wrong wrong wrong wrong and also wrong. Has it ever occurred to you that they haven’t thrown 250-300 innings because they are always injured? I mean, my goodness, Joe. Also, nobody throws 300 innings anymore. Also, only one pitcher in the NL has thrown 250 innings in a season in the last three years – Livan Hernandez (255) in 2004. So, how is that the “standard?”

Except for allowing his like 11 month-old son to run around a live baseball game and almost get stampeded by JT Snow, and making weirdly racial comments about African-Americans being more suited to play in the sun, Dusty Baker is most famous for overworking his pitchers.

Gary ,Bloomington Il.: Joe, how long of a suspension should Barrett receive?

Joe Morgan: I think a minimum of 4 games. That's what they give pitchers for throwing at hitters and I think you have to come to some type of consistency, if they think it was unprovoking. I only saw the highlights, so I don't know if Barrett was provoked or not. I think Kendall got 4 games for charging Lackey and I'd say that was a similar situation.

KT: I think you meant “unprovoked.” But more importantly, how is charging a pitcher on the mound the same as cold cocking a guy after a clean play at the plate? That doesn’t seem similar to me. It seems…hang on, what’s the word…oh: “totally different.”

Adam (Westwood): Joe, what do you think about Bonds tying and soon passing Ruth?

Joe Morgan: From a fan's standpoint, and that's what I am, I think it's a great accomplishment. It's unfortunate that we can't celebrate it like we should because of the controversy. But it shouldn't just be about Bonds, but also the others in this steroid era. I never hear Giambi or anyone else mentioned now. I only hear about Bonds and that's not the way it should be. There were other people involved in that BALCO investigation as well.

KT: It is a huge step forward for you even to mention BALCO in one of these chats. However. The reason you never hear Giambi mentioned anymore is because (1) he sort of kind of admitted he used steroids, while Bonds, in the face of overwhelming evidence, still acts like he’s being persecuted, and (2), more importantly, and there’s no way you could know this, probably, Joe, so I don’t blame you, Giambi is not trying to break the all-time home run record.

The rest of the Q/A are boring, so instead, here’s a quick compendium of what I call Joe’s “Ignorance Pleas.” These are from this chat only:

I can't say that the Astros CAN'T win.

But they didn't ask me, so I can't speak to why they didn't do it that way.

Unfortunately, I don't much about the players' personality on the team.

I haven't talked to Roger lately

I'm not sure about their financial situation,

I only saw the highlights

It's funny that they came up in the booth and did that, but I never saw it.

Labels: joe morgan, joechat

Look at this.

John (New York, NY): Do you agree with other analysts that Derek Jeter's defense is overrated? With the number of errors he's made so far this year, it seems like everyone's jumping off the bandwagon.

Joe Morgan: I would not put myself in that group.

Ken Tremendous: Explain why.

First off, as a middle infielder, shortstop is the most difficult position to play on the field.

KT: I agree.

Any lapse of concentration or injury can throw you off.

KT: Same can be said of all positions, but I'm still with you.

I think with Jeter, he's been losing his concentration recently, but I expect him to get out of it. Middle infield demands that you have your highest confidence at all times, so a few errors can throw you off.

KT: It's a confidence problem? For Derek Jeter? Are you sure?

I won't say someone's overrated because I don't see him every day.

KT: All-time low for the Joe Morgan "I don't see him every day so I can't comment" thing. How many times have you seen Jeter in your life, Joe? A hundred? Two hundred? And you still can't comment on whether you think he's overrated? This is insane. If you are telling me you can't make a comment on Derek Jeter because you haven't seen him play enough, you are officially saying that you can never render your opinion on anything, ever.

Obviously, if he's won 3 consecutive Gold Gloves, he has to be pretty good.

KT: Opposite of true.

Rick in DC: Mr. Morgan: The Tigers are pitching well thus far, but all we hear about are the arms on the Red Sox. Do you think these teams will meet in the ALCS this year?

Joe Morgan: I actually feel like Detroit might win the American League again. Obviously it's early, so I can't make a real prediction.

KT: People make predictions all the time. Before seasons even start. Can you ever just offer an opinion without qualifying it? What is the point of constantly saying you can't give your opinion? Why do you have this job?

So far, with Boston, Schilling has bounced back, Beckett is capable but hasn't reach his full potential, and Dice-K looks like a stud. You can't say they have a great staff just yet; they've certainly made some good starts. The Tigers have more room for improvement than the Red Sox, as Schilling and Wakefield aren't getting any better. I still think the Tigers will prevail in the end.

KT: See? Was that so hard?

Tony (Weymouth MA): With all of the injuries to the Yankees starting rotation, will Roger Clemens lean to signing with the Red Sox as the best chance to win it all one last time? Does he stay in Houston or retire?

Joe Morgan: I know Roger pretty well, but I'm not going to predict what he will do.

KT: Oh my God.

Here's a play I just wrote:

(Scene: Joe is the blind Greek seer Tiresias. Oedipus approaches.)

Oedipus: Tiresias, priest of Zeus. I come to you to gain knowledge of the slaying of King Laius.
Joe Tiresias: Well, I knew Laius pretty well, but I don't want to say I know who killed him.
Oedipus: But your visions are never wrong, great seer. You see all.
Joe Tiresias: I have seen a lot of things happen, yes. I have been a seer for a long time, so don't tell me I don't know what's gonna happen in Greece.
Oedipus: (confused) ...I wasn't saying that. I am saying the opposite of that. I am asking you for your help in learning the identity of the slayer of King Laius.
Joe Tiresias: I knew Laius. I watched him be King for a long time. He was a great veteran King.
Oedipus: ...What?
Joe Tiresias: If you're saying that he is not as good a King as you, I wouldn't say that. You just started as King, and he did it for a lot of years. He knew how to rule.
Oedipus: ...Yikes. Okay. Listen. I want you to use your wisdom and sight and the power of the Gods to tell me who killed him.
Joe Tiresias: Well, I didn't watch him rule every day, so I don't want to comment. I don't want to say one way or the other.
Oedipus: (Blinds self out of frustration)

Personally, I believe the only place Roger Clemens can play is Houston, because Roger doesn't want to travel, and Houston is the only team of the three to allow him to do what he's doing. Neither the Yankees or Red Sox can allow him to do that. If he pitches again, as an analyst, I feel he will pitch with Houston.

KT: And again, he ends up answering the question after saying that he can't answer the question.

Shawn in Philly: Do you really believe the lack of African-American players in the game is a "crisis"? Does it matter how many there are in the league as long as the opportunity is there? To me, the real problem is the lack of African-Americans in front office positions.

Joe Morgan: Of all the people I've listened to about this percentage, you have the right understanding. I cannot find it in my heart to blame MLB for the percentages. The opportunity is there. Players are making a choice to go to the NBA or the NFL. If baseball wants to try to help persuade them to go that way, that's great, but it's not baseball's fault. Football is 70 percent African-American and basketball is 80 percent African-American. All those athletes are not playing baseball. I agree fully that the problem is in the front office and in the management, but if you do not have African-American players, where are the managers going to come from? They have brought people into the front office who have graduated from Harvard, but not African-Americans who have graduated from Harvard. You have guys who get two, three chances, but a guy like Cito Gaston, Dusty Baker, Don Baylor, Lloyd McClendon, Davey Lopes, Jerry Manuel who don't get as many chances. Yet a aguy like Phil Garner, who lost in Milwaukee and Detroit, found a good team in Houston. Not to pick on him, but the opportunity isn't there. Only Frank Robinson has managed more than three different teams; Cleveland, San Francisco, Baltimore, and Washington. You have a very good understanding of what I see as the problem.

KT: All right, look. Dabbling in racial discussions is always a dangerous thing. And I fully agree that all different types of people should have the opportunities to manage MLB teams, and I think it's probably true that MLB, like the NFL and the NBA, should have more minority managers and front-office types -- especially African-Americans.

But. Look at that list of guys who, Joe is insinuating, didn't get a fair shake. Cito Gaston won two WS, then went 56-88, 74-88, 72-85, and was fired. I'll quote from his Wikipedia page here...

He had failed to lead the team to a winning record since 1993 and seemed uninterested in keeping his position. Gaston forced [GM Gord] Ash's hand by telling his boss that he was taking a vacation at season's end and would not be around for the usual post season evaluation process, thus ending his Jays managing career in an undignified fashion. He was replaced by then-pitching coach Mel Queen on an interim basis for the last week of the 1997 season. Gaston rejoined the team as a hitting coach after the 1999 season but was not retained after a disappointing 2001 campaign and the sale of the franchise to Rogers Communications. In 2002, he was hired by the Jays for a third time, as special assistant to president and chief executive officer Paul Godfrey.

Given Gaston's impressive record and World Series titles, it is somewhat surprising that he never managed again in the Major Leagues. Nevertheless, Gaston was a final candidate for the Detroit Tigers manager's job in the 1999-2000 season and was the runner-up to in the Chicago White Sox manager position in the 2003-4 off season. Sox GM Kenny Williams, a former Blue Jays player, had Gaston as one of two finalists for the job but decided to hire Ozzie Guillen. Gaston had several offers to rejoin major league teams as a hitting instructor...but declined offers. His length of unemployment now makes it unlikely he will return to the major leagues as a manager.

So...it was African-American GM Kenny Williams who hired Ozzie Guillen -- a minority candidate -- over Gaston. Just sayin'.

And Lopes, well, he has a career record of 144-195. (Also, I don't believe he is African-American. Am I wrong?) Dusty Baker is the man who thinks that you shouldn't "clog up the bases." He probably ended the careers of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood by having them throw like 150 pitches a game even after DL trips. He stinks on ice. Don Baylor won more than 83 games once in nine years. Lloyd McClendon was 336-446 in five years. Jerry Manuel was better (500-471), and is currently coaching for the (African-American-coached) Mets, I think, and he's only 53. He'll get another chance.

A lot of these guys -- like McClendon, and Baylor to some extent -- had crappy teams. But they also didn't do that great, so it's not totally surprising that they haven't been handed other jobs. I don't know. MLB should do more to encourage front-office -- and, I guess, non-Harvard -- minority hires. But I don't think it's racism, necessarily, that has kept, say, Dusty Baker, from getting hired. I think it's good sense.

Doug (New Rochelle, NY): Joe - how do you assess Junior Griffey's legacy? The last few years have been marred by injuries, and yet he still has a great shot at 600 home runs and he is one of the few sluggers in this geneation without a steroid question hanging over his head.

Joe Morgan: What you havre with Griffey is a Hall of Fame career, but unfortunately people may remember him near the end, when he broke down. Willie Mays was the greatest I ever saw, but he was average toward the end of his career. Fortunately, he's already built his legacy. His place in history is already set. He's one of the greatest to ever play the game.

KT: That part is kind of boring. But I love this next part:

Joe Morgan: When you saw Griffey on the field, you knew he was having fun. You don't see that with all the other players.

KT: To me Griffey is kind of a famously sourpuss kind of guy. He always looked unhappy, to me. Am I crazy? And also: who cares?

Bob(Chicago): In your opinion, why didn't more teams interview Dusty Baker during the offseason? Has he been scarred by the Wood/Prior injuries since 2003 or is it just the residue of being a Cubs manager?

KT: Here's a quotation you might have read, that Dusty Baker once said, when his team was last in the league with a .318 OBP and was asked if his team should walk more: "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

That is why more teams did not interview him. It betrays a lack of understanding about baseball bordering on the criminally insane. But let's see what Joe thinks.

Joe Morgan: I think all those things are in play. I don't think the Wood/Prior situation is as important as being in a losing situation in a big market. I'll go back to my answer before. Do you think if he was not African-American and had his same resume, would ha get interviewed?

KT: I think that no matter what ethnicity a man is, if he believes that walks "clog up the bases," he should not be a major league manager, because he is ill-suited for that job.

The same goes with Cito Gaston. We can say we shouldn't look at it that way, but you tell me another way to look at that, and I will.

KT: I just did. But here it is again, same guy (Dusty), same subject, different quote:

“No. 1, I’ve let most guys hit 3-0 (in the count). That’s one reason. . . . I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run.”

And this one:

“Who have been the champions the last seven, eight years? Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? . . . Walks help. They do help. But you aren’t going to walk across the plate, you’re going to hit across the plate. That’s the school I come from.”

For the record, the Yankees' championship teams were very much about OBP and walks.

Want more?

“Everybody can’t hit with two strikes, everybody can’t walk,” Baker said. “You’re taking away some of the aggressiveness of a kid if you’re telling him to go up there and try to work for a walk. . . . It’s like when I see kids in Little League and they make the small kids go up there and try to get a walk. That’s not any fun. . . . Do you ever see the top 10 walking (rankings)? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk, but the name of the game is to hit.”

How in the world is any sane GM going to let that guy manage his team?

There's no way that you can win like Dusty and Cito and not get another job. If you're an honest man, you realize there's something wrong with that picture.

KT: I actually take offense at this. Joe Morgan is calling me a racist. Or at least, not an honest man. That's wrong. If he's not careful, my friends and I might create a blog that ridicules him and people like him who don't know what they are talking about.

Bob (Tinley Park, IL): Joe, what do you think of Henry Aaron and Bud Selig's stance on Bonds breaking his record? Should they be there in your opinion or is Bonds a cheater and therefore not worthy of their presence?

Joe Morgan: I don't ever call anyone a cheater unless I know for sure.

KT: Okay. Fair enough.

Barry Bonds told a federal grand jury that he used a clear substance and a cream supplied by the Burlingame laboratory now enmeshed in a sports doping scandal, but he said he never thought they were steroids, The Chronicle has learned.

Federal prosecutors charge that the Bay Area Laboratory Co-operative, known as BALCO, distributed undetectable steroids to elite athletes in the form of a clear substance that was taken orally and a cream that was rubbed onto the body.

Bonds testified that he had received and used clear and cream substances from his personal strength trainer, Greg Anderson, during the 2003 baseball season but was told they were the nutritional supplement flaxseed oil and a rubbing balm for arthritis, according to a transcript of his testimony reviewed by The Chronicle.

Federal prosecutors confronted Bonds during his testimony on Dec. 4, 2003, with documents indicating he had used steroids and human growth hormone during a three-year assault on baseball's home run record, but the Giants star denied the allegations.

During the three-hour proceeding, two prosecutors presented Bonds with documents that allegedly detailed his use of a long list of drugs: human growth hormone, Depo-Testosterone, undetectable steroids known as "the cream" and "the clear," insulin and Clomid, a drug for female infertility sometimes used to enhance the effect of testosterone.

The documents, many with Bonds' name on them, are dated from 2001 through 2003. They include a laboratory test result that could reflect steroid use and what appeared to be schedules of drug use with billing information, prosecutors told the grand jury.

In a September 2003 raid on Anderson's Burlingame home, federal investigators seized documents they said showed Bonds was using banned drugs, according to court records. Anderson was indicted in February on charges of money laundering and conspiracy to distribute steroids in the BALCO case.

Now can you say he cheated?

(Did you not hear about that, Joe? it was a really big story.)

Joe Morgan: Hopefully this will be a better week for all of us, and baseball will help us move forward in the aftermath of what happened at Virginia Tech. It has not been a good start to the week. I'm concerned because my two daughters will be going to school two years from now. It's almost like the Imus situatiion; kids and people going to get educated and being hit from the outside with negative comments and threates on their lives. I guess if you're not safe in college, where are you safe?

KT: I'd just like to say here that the Imus situation was horrifying and despicable, and I'm glad he was fired. But how on God's green earth do you even begin to compare that with the Virgina Tech massacre? That's not even apples and oranges -- it's like apples and hurricanes of murderous insanity that destroy entire communities.

Sorry this chat was so downerish and sad. Hopefully next week he'll just go back to saying he can't comment on anything.

Labels: dusty baker, joe morgan, joechat

in Cincinnati. On one side: the Dustyites. On the other side: common sense. Articles are being written every day celebrating the folksy wisdom of a man who thinks bases are only good when there's no one standing on them. This is exactly what happened in L.A. when Grady Little was hired -- "He's folksy! He's down-home! He has a drawl!" (one year later) "He kind of stinks!"

If you could fart into a kind of microprocessing funnel, and the funnel poured the fart into a computer, which converted the fart into words, this is what it would look like.

Dusty Baker can literally smell whether a guy has a couple hits in his bat. And if his bones ache while a starter is warming up, that means 6 2/3, 4H, 1R. Welcome to the age of divining rods and augurs, Cincinnati.

The best baseball managing is done by the seat of your pants, using good, old-fashioned, pre-sabermetric logic.

If I live in Cincinnati, I have just purchased a one-way ticket to Canada, draft-fleeing-style.

That's another reason to like Dusty Baker. (Beyond his knowledge of single-malt Scotches and Van Morrison lyrics, which is merely astounding and downright Renaissance.)

"It doesn't matter to me if a guy gets on base if he can't run. If he can't run he's just clogging up the bases. Also, in an unrelated matter, it's a marvelous night for a moondance." (does a shot of Lagavulin 21)

If Baker manages by a book, it's one inside his head, not one written by Bill James.

Unfortunately, the book inside Dusty's head is "Lightning" by Dean R. Koontz. This will not help him.

The other day, the Reds manager decided he wanted Joey Votto and Adam Dunn to swing their bats more. "I don't like called third strikes," Baker said.

Can we get an Amen?

That's the thing about saberguys. We love called third strikes. I know it's controversial and counterintuitive, but we think batters should take more called third strikes. Statistics clearly show that offenses are best when the hitters take called 3rd strikes at least 16 times per game. That's why sabermetricians generally put on the permanent take sign for the first seven innings. Here's an equation to prove why this is good:

See? Called third strikes are awesome.

It always amuses when fans defend heart-of-the-order hitters by pointing to their on-base percentage. Wow, look at all those walks.

Yes. And then look at the corresponding runs that those walks create. And then look at the wins created by those runs! We are watching successful baseball! This is fun!

Five of the top six teams in walks last year were playoff teams.

Unless they're intentional walks, or the big boppers are being pitched around, walks aren't what you want from players hitting third through sixth. You want them up there smart-hacking.

You want these guys to brain-swing. You want them to think-swipe. You don't want your 3-6-hole hitters to engage in torque ignorance. You want them to cognitive-swivel.

As Baker said: "(Votto) needs to swing more. I'd like to see him more aggressive."

Joey Votto has hit .289/.385/.476 in the minors. He's ranked as one of the top infield prospects in baseball by nearly anyone who ranks top prospects. Here's Dusty's idea: let's change his plate approach.

By-the-book managing is for men who aren't confident in their ability to read players and situations. It's for managers who don't know their players' personalities. It's what you do so you can say later, after it backfires: "Don't blame me. I went by the book."

What you are calling "by the book managing" is often completely thoughtless, ignorance-steeped tradition. 2-1 count with a guy on first? Hit and run. Leadoff guy gets on? Bunt him over. That's by-the-book managing, and it's dumb. What people like Bill James, and Rob Neyer, and BP, and Billy Beane advocate is: research, analysis, thought, science. But fuck that. Let's read some tea leaves.

The best thing about Baker is that from all accounts, it's important to him to know his players individually: what jazzes them, what scares them, the situations that best suit their talents and temperaments. Contrary to the notions of the seamheads and stat freaks, players are not numbers.

Don't use jazz as a verb, please. Also: stat freaks and seam heads hate baseball. They are fucking ASIMO robots who make managerial moves through NASA press releases. Eric Wedge makes his moves from home, via on-line chats. Terry Francona has never met anyone on his 25-man roster. Joe Maddon is a 2.4 gigahertz Linksys router. Manny Acta is actually M.A.N. eACTA, the black-ops code-name for the Mechanized Algorithmic Numerical (internet-ready) Actionable Computation Techno-Automaton. When his "contract" runs out with the Nats he is going to be launched into space. We are weaponizing space. Deal with it, China.

"Managing" means exactly what it says: the ability to manage people. How Baker runs a game strategically is far less important than what he is able to pull from his employees, 162 times a summer.

"How he runs a game strategically" and "what the results are of his moves?" are somehow mutually exclusive things.

Anyone with a laptop can locate the Web site baseball- reference.com and sound like an expert. Anyone with a library card can pick up one of James' mind-numbing baseball "abstracts," in which the author makes the game sound like a first cousin to biomechanical engineering.

Which is why it boggles the mind that some people don't. Especially the ones paid millions of dollars to operate one of 30 several-hundred-million-dollar franchises. And for the record, I'm not trying to sound like an expert. I'm trying to sound like a dude with a computer who can look shit up and point out that Adam Dunn is doing just fine, thank you, and if you start making him swing at pitches he doesn't like, you're going to screw up your team.

It ain't that scientific.

It's not purely scientific. But it goddamn is kind of scientific.

The NFL does the same thing, in a different fashion. To convince you that pro football is actually a 17-week MENSA convention, The League whips out its 800-page playbooks and offers up oh-so-serious coaches who work 20 hours a day and act as if their jobs involve brain surgery and a red telephone.

QB: What play are we running, coach?

Coach: (furious) What "play" are we "running?" This ain't science, you jackass! You, Johnson. Just run down the field, and kind of squiggle around. Henderson? I want you to just groove. Bergleson -- let your soul take over. I want you to feel it. Smithson? Put this welding helmet on and close your eyes. Run wherever you feel like you should run. And Thompson? When the ball is snapped, I want a long primal scream. Don't worry about "blocking" or "patterns" or "execution." This game is about emotion, people.

Assistant Coach: Have you noticed that everyone on this team is named "something-son?"

Coach: You're fired. I don't pay you to think. Now. Soul-Ball Gut Check 34 on 3.

Possibly, it's less complex. Block. Tackle. Win.

If you try to win a modern-day NFL game solely by telling your players to "Block and tackle" you will lose 100-0.

Baseball's cerebral side involves numbers. While I believe in baseball-card wisdom - you are who the back of your card says you are - it's just a little piece of the whole. When some of us (OK, me mostly) advocated dealing, say, Votto and Homer Bailey for Oakland pitcher Joe Blanton, the Statboys came out flame-throwing numbers:

Homer Bailey: 21, awesome in the minors. Walks too many guys but gave up 6.55 H/9IP at AAA. Votto: potential stud at 1st for years. Blanton: pretty good 27 year-old pitcher, maybe hitting his stride. Also arb-eligible for the next 3 years, and will get very expensive. Chances that Bailey outpitches him in 2009 for 1/20 the price? Decent. This would be a trade you make at the deadline if you are one starter away from the World Series, not if you're Cincy and you have to basically start from the ground-up. Also, if you want to trade Bailey and Votto, you can do a whole lot better than Joe Blanton, I think.

Blanton's a creation of his spacious home ballpark! Look at his ERA, home and away! Blanton's a flyball pitcher! Check out his ratio of groundballs to flies!

This is fucking fantastic. These are his examples of ridiculous, opaque, arcane stat-geek numbers. Home/Away ERA. GB/FB ratio. If you think that's complicated, you are a simpleton of the highest order.

If you shot back that Blanton has won 42 times in the last three years - and that he went 7-5 at home last year and 7-5 on the road - if you suggested that no number matters but Games Won, you were dismissed as an illiterate.

Not an illiterate. I believe you can read. But maybe an ignoramus? Yes, let's go with ignoramus.

(Actually, maybe Blanton won as many on the road as at home, even with a much higher road ERA, because Oakland's hitters worked under the same conditions as their pitcher. Allow more runs, score more runs. And factually, flyball man Blanton gave up only 16 home runs in 230 innings last year. But never mind.)

First of all, if he actually is worse on the road, it would be a dumb idea to make him pitch 16 times a year in Cincinnati, where the RF fence is 115 feet from the plate. However, Blanton did have a very good year in 2007. He may be entering his prime. His HR rate and BB both dipped last year. Good work using numbers to show that.

Numbers are fun to look at but dangerous to dwell on.

But...didn't...you...just...

Baker understands this. If Dunn walks 30 fewer times this year, he'll drive in 15 more runs. His on-base percentage will dip. Oh, no.

If Dunn walks 30 fewer times, he'll drive in 15 more runs. This is thanks to the scientifically proven formula: RBI = (this is nonsense) (I made it all up).

If Votto takes fewer first-pitch strikes, his run production will improve.

You're right. He should hit more 1st-pitch home runs. Why doesn't anyone besides Dusty Baker and Paul Daugherty think home runs are better than walks?

And so on. Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.

This...this is the dumbest thing I have ever read.

Here's a stat: U.S. Presidents: All Americans Besides Paul Daugherty: 43. Paul Daugherty: 0. Suck on that, Paul Daugherty! You've never won the Presidency. What a jerk!

At bats are complicated things. The best result of an AB is a home run. The worst is an out that advances no runners. (Or a triple play, I guess, but you get the idea.) In between are several thousand other possibilities. A walk is a successful AB no matter how you slice it. Patient hitters are good hitters, by and large, who help their teams a great deal more than impatient hitters, and the more a guy is patient, the more he will swing at a good pitch instead of any pitch, which increases the chances he will succeed.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to run a level-5 diagnostic on the M.A.N. eACTA. His verillion modulator is on the fritz.

Labels: bill james, dusty baker, paul daugherty, sabermetrics, statistics

Being a dad is crazy! Oh my God, it's so insane. If you don't have kids, you just have no idea what it's like. Kids are nuts. I'd like to share just a few little observations I have to make about being a dad.

1. Just kidding. Here's a dumb quote from Dusty Baker.

Baker has repeatedly talked about the desire to have a do-it-all leadoff hitter with speed.

Dusty is the only one who wants this?

What kinds of hitters is he looking for further down the lineup? Does he want guys with lofty on-base percentages? The answer will likely not sit well with fans of the book "Moneyball," because Baker said he believes the OBP statistic is overvalued.

I can't wait for what comes next. This is the single most exciting thing that has happened to me in the past week.

"I'm big on driving in runs and scoring runs," Baker said.

Huh. Seems like an odd way to go about winning baseball games, but okay. I mean, I would challenge your "driving in runs/scoring runs" strategy as outdated. Have you tried the modern and new methodology of: philosophizing about runs, and then sort of "surrounding" the runs with positively-charged ions, and then "inducing" runs with a combination of computer-aided design and game theory-based modeling?

Despair, Cincy fans. Your manager is giving an interview, and feels the need to announce that he is "big" on "driving in runs" and also "scoring runs." The man is a dummkopf.

"Guys in the middle should score about close to equal to what they drive in.

"About close to equal" is the set. Here's the spike:

On-base percentage, that's fine and dandy. But a lot of times guys get so much into on-base percentage that they cease to swing. It's becoming a little bit out of control.

And if they swing...and get on base...they have increased their...what, Dusty? Their...what? Their "On-blank-blank." Sound it out. Their "On-blank-Percentage." You can do it: their...okay. Forget it.

And yes, I know what he is saying. He is saying that he wants his guys to swing and get hits to "drive runners in," because he is "big" on that. But patient hitters, who walk a lot, are often better hitters, who hit better when they swing than impatient hitters, because they swing at better pitches. Forcing patient hitters to swing more = a bad idea.

Oh -- before, when I said that was the spike? I was wrong. Here's the spike. And it's a doozy.

"What you do is run the pitcher's count up, that helps," Baker said. "You put him in the stretch, that helps.

Correct. Correct. Now undermine it.

But your job in the middle is to either score them or drive them in. The name of the game is scoring runs. Sometimes, you get so caught up in on-base percentage that you're clogging up the bases."

Blammo!

Kerpow!

Bler-mump!

Sowpods!

I really can't understand how he can be "big" on scoring runs and driving in runs, but down on "clogging up the bases" with men who will (a) score the runs by (b) providing an opportunity for others to drive them in. You cannot score runs any other way. Unlessssssss -- I got it. He wants solo home run experts. That's it. He wants really fast runners, who will hit solo home runs and then run really fast around the bases. Okay. My apologies.

Despair, Cincy fans. Despair.

Next time: Dirty Diapers -- They're So Stinky!

Labels: clogging up the basepaths, dusty baker

We don't usually post things that emailers say they heard on TV because they're impossible to verify, but this is just too perfect. From reader Philip:

I caught some of the Mets-Braves game this afternoon which I believe was the ESPN debut of FJM favorite Dusty Baker along with Ric Sutcliffe and Dave Ryan. In the bottom of the first the three were discussing the Mets batting David Wright second in their batting order. Dusty says, "He (Wright) stole 20 bases last year so you don't have to worry about him clogging up the bases at the top of the order." For reference, first game, bottom of the first inning, first "clogging up the bases" quote from Dusty Baker.

Labels: clogging up the basepaths, dusty baker